Another "family values" Republican gets caught with his pants down

By Michael J.W. Stickings

These right-wing theocrats are just an endless source of hypocrisy, aren't they?

Freshman GOP Rep. Vance McAllister of Louisiana -- who ran for office as a principled conservative Christian -- has been caught on video in a romantic encounter with a woman believed to be on his congressional staff just before Christmas.

The Ouachita Citizen, a newspaper based in West Monroe, La., posted a Dec. 23 surveillance video purportedly from inside McAllister's district office in Monroe.

The video shows McAllister kissing a woman identified by the newspaper as a congressional staffer for the first-term lawmaker. Federal payroll records show she is a part-time aide who began working for McAllister the day after he won his seat last year.

McAllister won a special election on Nov. 16 to replace Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-La.). McAllister won in the heavily Republican district by playing up his conservative credentials, including his Christian faith and his 16-year marriage.

Yes, that's right, as the Citizen reports:

Throughout last fall's congressional campaign, McAllister, a Republican from Swartz, touted his Christian faith and in one television commercial, he asked voters to pray for him. At least two other campaign television commercials featured McAllister walking hand in hand with his wife, Kelly, while their five children walked along. One television commercial captured the McAllister family in the kitchen of their home preparing breakfast before attending church.

By the way, in this case, "principled conservative Christian" (as Politico put it), means Duck Dynasty-loving anti-gay bigot (euphemism: "traditional marriage" enthusiast), flag-waving scoundrel-patriot, and shameless (until caught) hypocrite.

But of course it usually does as far as Republicans are concerned.

Obama and Buono and Christie

By Frank Moraes

I just thought of something while reading Patricia Murphy's excellent article, Why National Democrats Rolled Over for Chris Christie. As I've complained about before, President Obama did not endorse Barbara Buono in the New Jersey's governor's race. I've heard it said that Obama did that as a kind of payback for Christie's behavior during Hurricane Sandy right before the 2012 presidential election. I don't know if that's true, but I wouldn't doubt it.

But here's the thing. Christie quite pointedly said at that time that Romney has his man and that he still thought that Romney was the better man for the job than Obama. So why is it that Obama didn't endorse Buono? Not doing so says that he doesn't have a preference. Or not much of one. And that may be! Christie's economic conservatism and social moderation may be exactly what Obama thinks.

I know: the standard line is that Obama is a real liberal but the Republicans just won't allow him to govern that way. He's against taking money away from the old and food away from the poor. It is just all those nefarious advances and pools that stop him from doing what he thinks is right! But I really question that narrative. In fact, I know it's not true. It isn't that Obama is secretly conservative. I don't really know. But he definitely leans conservative on economic issues and is too spineless to lead on liberal social issues. This is a man who would have felt right at home in Reagan's cabinet. And, I mean, that man was forced into supporting same sex marriage by that liberal firebrand Joe Biden!

Read more »

Marco Rubio says something smart about Chris Christie and the 2013 elections

By Michael J.W. Stickings

 Specifically, about Tuesday's elections and what they all mean:

In an interview with CNN, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio downplayed Wednesday any national takeaways from GOP Gov. Chris Christie's crushing victory in the blue state of New Jersey and Republican Ken Cuccinelli's loss in Virginia, saying what happened in Tuesday's elections carry little implications for the future of the GOP.

"I think we need to understand that some of these races don't apply to future races. Every race is different -- it has a different set of factors -- but I congratulate (Christie) on his win," he told CNN Chief Congressional Correspondent Dana Bash.

The first-term Senator from Florida stressed that each race is unique to the state where it's taking place.

"Clearly (Christie) was able to speak to the hopes and aspirations of people within New Jersey. That's important. We want to win everywhere and Governor Christie has certainly shown he has a way of winning in New Jersey, in states like New Jersey... so I congratulate him on that," he said. 

Actually, he's overstating his case a bit. Each election ought to be understood on its own terms, but it's not like they take place in complete isolation from one another. And even with off-year elections like the ones on Tuesday, certain themes and trends can be found, even if there isn't necessarily the sort of easy, simplistic, overarching narrative (who won, who lost, what it all means) the news media so desperately want to find and push (as Jon Stewart amusingly pointed out tonight). And one thing we saw is that, Christie's win over a relative unknown notwithstanding, Democrats and progressive causes did quite well, on the whole.


Read more »

Weak tea

By Mustang Bobby

The election results in Virginia, New York, New Jersey, and Alabama indicate that the Tea Party had a bad day.

Terry McAuliffe, no one’s idea of a perfect candidate, beat Ken Cuccinelli for governor of Virginia. Mr. Cuccinelli was the personification of Tea Party ideology with the added touch of evangelical prudery, homophobia, and misogyny. That the election was close was probably more an indication of Mr. McAuliffe’s utter lack of charm than a late surge of voters in favor of transvaginal probing and banning sodomy. There’s only so much purity that the voters can take.

In New Jersey, the re-election of Chris Christie sets the stage for the 2016 primary starting today. Even though rational people know that Mr. Christie is not a moderate centrist Republican by any standard, he’s viewed with deep suspicion by the Tea Party because he once shook hands with Barack Obama and said nice things about him. That makes him a heretic in the eyes of the Inquisitors, and will doom any chances he has of winning in primaries in places like Texas or the Deep South.

Speaking of the Deep South, a run-off election in Alabama put an establishment Republican in the House over an avowed Tea Partier and birther. It’s hard to imagine that a bomb-thrower like that could lose in Alabama, but even there they seem to have their limit on the nutsery.

A lot of obituaries have been written about the Tea Party only to have the zombies rise from the grave once again, but it’s pretty hard to see yesterday’s election results as a sign of vigorous health for it. But rest assured that somewhere in the aftermath of these elections, there is some Republican strategist who is certain that they lost because their candidates weren’t conservative enough.

(Cross-posted at Bark Bark Woof Woof.)

U.S. Election Extravaganza 2013

By Michael J.W. Stickings 

Maybe.

So here we are. A huge, historic day for the greatest country that has ever graced the face of the earth.

Actually, that's not true. None of it.

But it is Election Day in America, and there are some important, interesting races around the country, and there are already results coming in, with votes in...

Virginia... and New Jersey... and New York City... and... and... Alabama?

Yes, the (great?) state of Alabama, where one-quarter of my family is from, including my wonderful, sadly now-deceased maternal grandfather, a WWII hero and, later, baseball broadcaster. There's a House race in that state's first district, with, predictably, two right-wing Republicans on the ballot. So whatever.

(There are also a lot of other local elections taking place, and I'm sure many of them are important and interesting, but we're going to stick to the national stories here.)

Does any of this matter, though? I mean, is there any larger narrative? Will the results tonight tell us anything about the political state of the country, about where the country may be going headed into 2014, with the midterms coming up a year from now, with President Obama's approval ratings low, though not nearly as low as Congress's, with the Affordable Care Act struggling to get going and of course under a constant barrage of dishonestly from Republicans?

I would say no, not really.

Gov. Chris Christie has won re-election in New Jersey. I believe that was called weeks ago, no? It might as well have been. He's a bully and a blowhard, but there's no denying his popularity, and he certainly qualifies as the GOP superstar du jour, with all signs pointing to a 2016 presidential run, with the media salivating over his prospects, even if in reality he stands zero chance of winning the Republican nomination because he's just so out of line with mainstream right-wing Republicanism these days (though he'd likely be a formidable national candidate, just as he might have been the best choice as Romney's running mate last year). Sure, it says a lot that he can win in a blue state, and he's certainly no ideological extremist, but Republicans have a long history of winning state-wide races in my former home state and it's not like Democrats put up a truly viable alternative. Sorry, but Barbara Buono is no Cory Booker.

So, again, whatever.

The more interesting race by far has been in Virginia, where centrist (and corrupt) Clintonite Dem Terry McAuliffe has been ahead of Tea Party social conservative extremist Ken Cuccinelli, he who hates blow jobs, in the polls and appears to be on track to win in that oh-so-purple state. Last night on The Daily Show, a somewhat funny bit suggested that it's a race between two equal evils, two equally unlikeable candidates. That's Jon Stewart's independent shtick, but it's anything but true in this case. I'm hardly a fan of McAuliffe, who has spent much of his political career wallowing in the deep underbelly of the Clinton machine, but he's an opportunistic, self-aggrandizing centrist. He's not nearly as progressive as I would like, but he's at least on the right side of the issue when it comes to, say, women's health, the environment (more or less), and poverty, while The Cooch is a far-right extremist and ideologue who represents the nefarious fusion of anti-government Tea Party radicalism and socially moralistic Christianist theocratism. There's the choice. And the choice is clear. That's what Virginia voters are saying.

As for The Big Apple, well... after years and years of Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg, two right-leaning law-and-order types who were tough on crime, minorities, and Big Gulp drinkers, it's obviously time for someone who represents the city's more progressive aspirations for a better life, not just a "safer" life, and that someone is Democrat Bill de Blasio, whose toughest competition was in the Democratic primary and who will beat Republican (and former Giuliani lieutanant) Joe Lhota by, what, 40 points? More? Let's just agree it'll be a landslide. It remains to be seen how de Blasio performs as mayor, and perhaps there are questions about how effectively he'll manage the city and be something more than an aspirational figure, but there's no denying his broad support among the city's various demographic groups and the fact that he's generated a good deal of excitement during the campaign.

By the way, it's still too early to call in Virginia. Not surprising. The early votes from the more rural parts of the state tend to go Republican, while the Democratic votes from the denser northern parts of the state come later, and so The Cooch will continue to lead until, hopefully, those urban, suburban, and exurban votes turn the tide in McAuliffe's favor. But it'll take time. This is purely anecdotal, but Virginia vote-counting and reporting always seems to be a slow, slow process.

Alright, a short break... be back soon.

**********

Okay.

At 9:30 pm, it's a really tight race in Virginia, but McAuliffe has closed the gap significantly. It's now 878,515 to 875,160, or 47-46, for The Cooch, with 87% of precincts reporting.

Christie's up 59-39. Yes, yes, a big win. Let the media kick their stupid "Christie 2016" narrative into an even higher gear. Perspective, people, perspective.

In New York, the race has been called for de Blasio even though, as of right now, CNN has no votes reported. There you go.

**********

By the way, make sure to read the comments. One of our co-bloggers, Frank Moraes, is weighing in as well.

**********

McAuliffe has taken the lead. It's now 911,726 to 906,841, or 47-46, with 91% reporting. I was going to say it's hard to believe that many people actually voted for The Cooch, but, no, it's not surprising at all. It's Virginia, after all, with large parts of the state deeply rooted in the Confederacy, and of course this purple state, like the country generally, remains deeply divided along partisan lines regardless of candidate.

**********

And CNN -- and probably others, but that's what I've got up on the screen at the moment -- has called it for McAuliffe.

It's still 47-46, and so a closer election than expected (and than the polls were suggesting was likely to be the case), though the final numbers will likely show a larger McAuliffe victory, with votes still coming in from populous Democratic areas.

Why is that, this closer-than-expected race? Republican vote suppression efforts, anyone?

**********

At 11:19 pm, it's McAuliffe over Cooch 45-45.

Meanwhile, Christie won big and de Blasio is crushing it. And, for what it's worth, Bradley Byrne beat Dean Young in AL-1.

Oh, what an extravaganza it's been.

Good night, everyone.

McAuliffe surges to 17-point lead over Cuccinelli in Virginia gubernatorial race

By Michael J.W. Stickings and Richard K. Barry

MJWS:

The Cooch

Rasmussen:

Democrat Terry McAuliffe has jumped to a 17-point lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the Virginia gubernatorial race following the federal government shutdown that hit Northern Virginia hard and Hillary Clinton’s weekend visit to the state.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds McAuliffe with 50% support to Cuccinelli’s 33%. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is a distant third with eight percent (8%) of the vote.

Let me be clear about this: Republican-friendly (and, indeed, solidly pro-Republican) polling firm Rasmussen has the Democrat ahead by a whopping 17 points.

Rasmussen may be deeply biased and often badly wrong, but the bias and wrongness is usually tilted in the Republicans' favor. So this is pretty significant.

In any event, I've said it before and I'll say it again. People really like blow jobs. Or, at the very least, it's dangerous politically to come out against them.

And of course it's also dangerous to be a right-wing extremist in a state that is rapidly turning blue.

Not to mention to be tied to a deeply corrupt and unpopular governor.

Virginia can't be rid of The Cooch soon enough.

Read more »

Why is Ken Cuccinelli losing the Virginia gubernatorial race?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

It's certainly interesting to see that climate change has become a central issue in the much-watched Virginia gubernatorial race between Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Terry McAuliffe. It has a lot to do with the fact that Virginia has a significant coal industry, of course, but Cuccinelli is also a head-up-his-ass climate change denialist, and that has opened the door for McAuliffe to strike.

One would hope that Virginia voters abhor Cuccinelli's ideological fervor and abject ignorance, and hold him accountable at the polls for this and so many other far-right views, but it's just hard to see the electorate really deciding this race over such a serious public policy matter.

No, I think we know why Cuccinelli, the state's abhorrent attorney general, is behind even against a shifty character like McAuliffe. And no, it's not because Virginia is now a purple state leaning more and more blue.

No, it all comes down to blow jobs, and specifically to Cuccinelli's objection to them.

I mean, most people like blow jobs, right? Surely at least the slightly-less-than-half male part of the electorate to which Cuccinelli himself belongs is nothing if not enthusiastic about them, and surely there are some in the slightly-more-than-half of the other part who at least don't mind them and may even see them as central to their sexual experience, perhaps even as an enjoyable component of it, if not always a necessity no matter how desperately, if not pathetically, the other part pleads for them.

You see, Cuccinelli is the anti-blow job candidate, and really the anti-"sodomy" candidate generally, which means he objects to oral and anal generally. I needn't delve into the enthusiasm that concerns the latter, but the key here is that Cuccinelli objects not just to fellatio but to cunnilingus as well, and that should arouse the indignation of the slightly-more-than-half part of the electorate that finds itself on the receiving end of that act.

Well, and the giving end too. For both. Because, of course, we're talking not just about straight sex but about gay sex as well, and of course the far-right Cuccinelli is hardly a fan of what the gays do, nor of gay rights, nor, one imagines, of the gays themselves, because he's basically a bigot. Anyway, maybe he likes hand jobs or BDSM or something, though we don't know what and what is not, for him, a "crime against nature," but the point is that if you're not doing it like Christian procreationists, presumably with the lights out, in the missionary position, and with a great deal of guilt and shame, you're basically Satan's spawn, and that really cuts down on the fun any straight couple can have and even more of the fun any gay couple can have.

In any event, I'm sure there are any number of important issues that are animating this high-profile race and engaging the electorate, but Cuccinelli's anti-sex agenda has to be the driving force behind his poor showing in the polls, no?*

Because a lot of people really, really, really like blow jobs. Even in Virginia.

(*Okay, fine, probably not. But it should be part of it. Virginians deserve to know just what he wants to do to their sex lives.)

Virginians don't much care for their governor

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Boo-hoo:

PPP's newest Virginia poll finds that Bob McDonnell's net approval rating has dropped 12 points in the last month, and that for the first time since taking office he's under water. Only 36% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 41% who disapprove.

McDonnell's numbers are down across the board from our last poll of the state. He's dropped from 73% approval with Republicans to 62%, 22% approval with Democrats to 14%, and from a 39/41 spread to a 36/43 one with independents. McDonnell's favorability numbers are even worse than his approval numbers with just 32% of voters seeing him in a positive light to 45% who have a negative opinion.

McDonnell's ethics issues seem to be driving this downturn in his popularity.

Oh really? You think?

I guess this is what happens when you take gifts from a shady corporate exec trying to buy influence, arousing the FBI's interest, and spend public money improperly at your mansion, and otherwise come across as a walking ethics violation.

But the question is how McDonnell's current troubles will impact the Republican ticket, specifically blow job hater Ken Cuccinelli (running for governor) and all-around wacko E.W. Jackson (running for lieutenant governor). (Those PPP numbers are coming today. Stay tuned.)

Suffice it to say, Virginia Republicans don't look all that good at the moment.

Behind the Ad: Terry McAuliffe, king of the platitudes

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.)

Who: Terry McAuliffe gubernatorial campaign.

Where: Virginia.

What's going on: Democratic candidate for governor in Virgina Terry McAuliffe says a divisive ideological agenda is bad and job creation is good. And he's a uniter, not a divider. Thanks for that, Terry.

By the way, Public Policy Polling just released a poll on the race indicating that neither candidate is much liked:

Terry McAuliffe is not popular, with 29% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him to 33% with a negative one. But we find that Ken Cuccinelli is even more unpopular, with 44% of voters rating him unfavorably to just 32% with a positive opinion. As a result we find McAuliffe leading Cuccinelli by a 5 point margin, 42/37. McAuliffe also led by 5 points on our January poll, but the share of voters who are undecided has spiked from 13% at the start of the year now up to 21%.

Last man standing!


(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Special election in Alabama's 1st Congressional District

By Richard K. Barry

Earlier in May, Rep. Jo Bonner (R-Ala) announced that he would resign from Congress to take a job at the University of Alabama. A date has not been set for the special election to replace him, but this is a very reliable red state, so Democrats shouldn't get excited. 

Word now is that Rick Santorum will endorse conservative columnist Quin Hillyer. As a safe Republican seat, this will draw a lot of competition in the primary so I suppose Santorum could help his candidate stand out. 

Roll Call: 

Aside from Hillyer, consultants say the most likely and viable candidates in the race include:

-- State Sen. Tripp Pittman, a wealthy owner of a tractor company in Baldwin County, a rural area in the 1st District.

-- First-term state Sen. Bill Hightower. 

-- Former state Sen. Bradley Byrne, a lawyer who lost a Republican gubernatorial primary bid in 2010. 

-- Mobile County Sheriff Sam Cochran, who consultants say is well-respected in the community and has strong name recognition.

If you want to know how red a district it is, Romney beat Obama by a margin of 62 to 37 percent last November. 

Will this one get national attention like the South Carolina 1st? Uh, no. 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Anthony Weiner's rise

By Carl 

(I promise, that's the only dick joke in the post.)

Anthony Weiner has officially announced his candidacy for mayor of the city of New York, to replace three term gadabout-with-nothing-better-to-do-than-trash-my-city Michael Bloomberg.

I'll probably end up voting for him in the primary.

That speaks less of Weiner, who has always come off in my book as a bit of a dick (ok, sorry, my bad), than it does about the other candidates running in the Democratic primary, which is essentially the coronation of the next mayor. Weiner is currently polling second at 15%, and that poll was taken before he formally announced. Christine Quinn, the "frontrunner," is polling at 25%, which speaks volumes about a woman who has been Council Speaker for twelve years.

Quinn should be the presumptive nominee, but at 25% she's polling very weakly for someone with as much visibility as she's forced upon New Yorkers, and with good reason: she's really pretty shitty, unless you live in the West Village or happen to be gay. For those constituents, she's about as progressive as they come.

For working and middle class New Yorkers, not so much.

Read more »

Los Angeles mayoral election is today

By Richard K. Barry

Wendy Greuel and Eric Garcetti wrapped up their campaigns yesterday in the race to be the next mayor of Los Angeles. As a local newspaper put it, they have been campaigning furiously in an attempt to "avoid the potential lowest turnout for an open mayoral seat in modern history."

Reuters:

Tuesday's vote is a runoff between the two veteran Democrats, who in March were the top vote-getters in a primary election in which Garcetti got 33 percent and Greuel 29 percent. One of them would have had to have won more than 50 percent of the ballots cast to have been elected outright.

The non-partisan campaign has centered on what Greuel and Garcetti agree is a dire financial outlook facing America's second most populous metropolis, and the political clout commanded by the city's public employee unions.

Though turnout might be low, that hasn't stopped the candidates from spending record amounts of cash, which passed the $33 million mark on Sunday:

In the campaign's final days, Garcetti vastly outspent Greuel on the airwaves and other campaign efforts, but Greuel had far more support from the outside groups.

A new poll by the Los Angeles Times and USC has Garcetti with a narrowing lead of 7 points.

Here is Chuck Todd's analysis. 

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: Fun with names in New Jersey

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.)

Who: The Barbara Buono campaign for governor.

Where: New Jersey.

What's going on: The ad starts out having fun with the fact that some people have a hard time pronouncing Buono's last name. It's not pronounced like Sonny Bono, or Bono the singer, etc., etc.,

And then, somewhat gratuitously, she introduces the name and picture of popular New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Aaron Blake at The Washington Post says this:

Buono's use of Cuomo is particularly interesting given how close Cuomo has been with Christie — especially given their work on Hurricane Sandy-related issues in recent months. Cuomo also has sometimes endorsed against his party's nominee or withheld his endorsement altogether, so it's no cinch that he will back her candidacy.

Buono's ad doesn't say Cuomo has endorsed her, but it sure suggests that she'd like to be associated with his political brand — which will be quite familiar to voters in the Garden State.

Blake calls this sneaky. I'm not sure. As he admits, she doesn't say Cuomo has endorsed her. And what is so wrong with wanting to be associated with the popular brand of someone in your own party in your own region?

Come on. She's going to get thumped. Give her something. 


(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: The other special House election -- in Missouri's 8th Congressional District

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.)

Who: The Jason Smith campaign.

Where: Missouri's 8th Congressional District

What's going on: Jo Ann Emerson resigned her House seat back in January of this year. She did that to take a job as president and CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. The election to replace her is on June 4.

The reason you may not have heard about this election is that it is in one of reddest congressional districts in America. Ms. Emerson won the seat in 2012 by a 72 to 25 percent margin. On February 9, 2013, per Missouri statute, Jason Smith was selected by the 8th District Republican Central Committee to be the Republican candidate in the June special election.

He is also the Missouri state House Speaker Pro Tem.

Democrats have nominated Bootheal Region state Rep. Steve Hodges. Charlie Cook notes that Emerson resigned at a time that might have made this election concurrent with municipal elections and therefore helped with turnout. In a very Republican state that would obviously help the Republican. But Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon decided to push it to June where it will stand alone and presumably result in lower turnout, which could aid Hodges.

It may also give Hodges time to define the election in terms of personality and not party, because if it's about party, its over for the Democrats. As Cook writes, Smith would have to show some pretty glaring deficiencies to lose. 

So, that's why you haven't heard about this one, unless you live in Missouri. 


(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: Rep. Ed Markey invented the internet (not really)

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.) 

Who: The Ed Markey Senate campaign. 

Where: Massachusetts, on broadcast and cable television.

What's going on: In his first post-primary ad, Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) talks about his record supporting the telecom industry.

The backstory is that Republicans have been critical of Markey for failing to address jobs and the economy in his campaign.

As The Hill notes:

The ad features Diane Hessan, CEO of a Boston-based communications firm, vouching for Markey's efforts.

"Then Ed Markey fought to break up monopolies and transform the telecom industry, unleashing competition and private sector investment and creating good jobs," she says.

His Republican opponent Gabriel Gomez and his campaign are also trying to make Markey's age and long tenure in Congress into a bad thing, which they are contrasting with Gomez's youth and business background:

Markey's assertion that he's in part responsible for the development of innovative technologies used by young people, including Facebook and smartphones, could counter the perception that he's out of touch.

It's all in the game -- trying to blunt criticism that you know will keep on coming.


(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: Elizabeth Colbert Busch's final push

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.) 

Who: The Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) campaign.

Where: South Carolina's First Congressional District.

What's going on: In this ad, Colbert Busch talks about the need for a balanced budget amendment and a ban on special interest earmarks. She also pledges to cut her own pay by ten percent. It is, after all, a red state. She has to make fiscally conservative noises.

With the election a day away, Colbert Busch has been endorsed by the biggest newspaper in the district:

The Charleston (S.C.) Post And Courier endorsed Colbert Busch on Sunday, lauding her as "A new leader for the Lowcountry." Her "resolve to reach across the aisle" would serve South Carolina well on local and national platforms, the paper wrote.

A survey by Public Policy Polling on April 22 had Colbert Busch ahead by nine points, but the GOP-leaning Red Racing Horses had the two candidates tied as of Thursday.

It does appear that it will be close between Colbert Busch and former Republican Gov. Mark Sanford. This one probably is too close to call and may depend on how many conservative women are so disgusted by Sanford that they stay home tomorrow. 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: Mark Sanford says, "don't look here, look there"

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.) 

Who: The Mark Sanford campaign.

Where: South Carolina's First Congressional District

What's going on: With the South Carolina House special election only days away, it seems that former Gov. Mark Sanford is taking a different approach. In a new ad, he calmly faces the camera and announces that the "contest is bigger" than just him. The obvious point is that if people do think it's just about him, he is about to lose. 

His attempt to draw Nancy Polosi into the fray is clearly meant to fire up local conservatives in a way that makes them forget what he has done to his life and political career. 

That's a little desperate. 



(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Nasty developments in the South Carolina special House election

By Richard K. Barry

Push polling is a campaign technique that ranges from being a mildly disingenuous practice to downright despicable. It involves a group calling voters under the guise of conducting a legitimate poll, only to ask questions that leave a voter with a very misleading impression that an opposing candidate is in some way unacceptable.

A shadowy group called SSI Polling has been calling voters in South Carolina ahead of the special House election between Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch and Republican Mark Sanford. 

According to ThinkProgress, the questions asked "ranged from outlandish smears to thinly-veiled Republican talking points." The approach varied somewhat from call to call, but these were some of the "questions" asked:

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you she had had an abortion?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you a judge held her in contempt of court at her divorce proceedings?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if she had done jail time?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you she was caught running up a charge account bill?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if she supported the failed stimulus plan?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you unions contributed to her campaign?"

Isn't that amazing? They never actually accuse Colbert Busch of having had an abortion, or being held in contempt by a judge, or having done jail time, etc., but the impression the voters takes away is unmistakable. 


Read more »

Behind the Ad: Democratic super PAC on Mark Sanford's affair

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.)

Who: House Majority PAC (Democratic PAC).

Where: South Carolina First Congressional District.

What's going on: Anyone paying even slight attention knows that former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford famously disappeared to meet his Argentine mistress while in office. He is now trying to revive his political career by running in a special House election in the state. In this ad, a Democratic super PAC draws attention to the affair and attempts to appeal to women in particular who may have concerns about the indiscretion.


(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Rand Paul is already running hard

By Richard K. Barry

Sen. Rand Paul is certainly running hard for the presidency, early as it is. He'll be in Iowa and New Hampshire in May, and in South Carolina in June. 

CNN reports that he is getting ready to endorse Mark Sanford in the special election in South Carolina:

Paul is organizing a series of public and private appearances across the first-in-the-South primary state in June, GOP sources with knowledge with the plans told CNN. The trip is "an effort to get to know Republicans across the state," as one person involved in the event-planning described it.

Paul makes no secret of his libertarian leanings, just like his father, but he is trying to cleave to the centre a bit more in order to have a credible run at the top job. The question may be whether he can appeal to moderates without completely alienating libertarian activists who make up so much of his enthusiastic base. 

The bigger problem is probably that he won't be able to shed enough libertarian orthodoxy to appeal to moderates. 

And if Rand Paul finds some way to get the GOP nomination, Hillary won't need to break a sweat. 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)