Is Obama selling us out -- again?

By Frank Moraes 

Ezra Klein reported yesterday afternoon and then again in the evening on The Rachel Maddow Show, that a debt ceiling deal is all but done: the president will take a top marginal tax rate of 37% and raise the retirement age to 67. It sounds outrageous, but Klein makes a compelling case, even though it is very much akin to tea-leaf reading. Basically, he's saying that Obama used to always say the top marginal tax rate must go back up to the Clinton levels and now he is signaling that he would take less. But this isn't new. I noticed right after the election that Obama had started saying that income over a quarter million must be taxed more -- specifically neglecting to mention how much more. So this isn't some sudden change.

Also note that Ezra Klein was completely wrong a couple of weeks ago when he said that fiscal cliff negotiations were all but done -- right before the Republicans made a week long show of how there was no progress on the negotiations. So I'm not at all certain that he is right. But as I said, he makes a compelling case. And if he is right, this is really bad.

Paul Krugman wrote exactly what I think:

First, raising the Medicare age is terrible policy. It would be terrible policy even if the Affordable Care Act were going to be there in full force for 65 and 66 year olds, because it would cost the public $2 for every dollar in federal funds saved. And in case you haven't noticed, Republican governors are still fighting the ACA tooth and nail; if they block the Medicaid expansion, as some will, lower-income seniors will just be pitched into the abyss.

Second, why on earth would Obama be selling Medicare away to raise top tax rates when he gets a big rate rise on January 1 just by doing nothing? And no, vague promises about closing loopholes won't do it: a rate rise is the real deal, no questions, and should not be traded away for who knows what.

So this looks crazy to me; it looks like a deal that makes no sense either substantively or in terms of the actual bargaining strength of the parties. And if it does happen, the disillusionment on the Democratic side would be huge. All that effort to reelect Obama, and the first thing he does is give away two years of Medicare? How's that going to play in future attempts to get out the vote?

He's completely right. If Obama does this, it will indicate that he's been playing us all along. He talks pretty, but he is nothing close to liberal. I wish I weren't so cynical that I didn't believe it entirely possible.
Read more »

Wishful thinking

By Mustang Bobby

David Brooks sees a glimmer of hope for the Republicans: 

Over the past month, the Republican Party has changed far more than I expected. First, the people at the ideological extremes of the party have begun to self-ghettoize. The Tea Party movement attracted many people who are drawn to black and white certainties and lock-step unity. People like that have a tendency to migrate from mainstream politics, which is inevitably messy and impure, to ever more marginal oases of purity.

Jim DeMint, for example, is leaving the Senate to go lead the Heritage Foundation. He is leaving the center of the action, where immigration, tax and other reforms will be crafted, for a political advocacy organization known more for ideological purity and fund-raising prowess than for creativity, curiosity or intellectual innovation.

Second, politics is being reborn. For a time, Republican candidates like Richard Mourdock of Indiana proudly declared that they didn't believe in compromise. Political activists spent more time purging deviationists than in trying to attract new converts.

But that mania has passed. There are increasing signs that House Republicans are willing to unite behind Speaker John Boehner so he can cut a deal to avert the "fiscal cliff." There has been an epidemic of open-mindedness as Republicans try to win minority votes and create a version of their party that can be competitive in states like Connecticut and California.

[...]

The Republicans may still blow it. If President Obama is flexible and they don't meet him partway, Republicans would contribute to a recession that would discredit them for a decade. But they are moving in the right direction and moving fast. These are first steps, and encouraging ones.

In other words, when you've had the snot beaten out of you with a sockful of horse manure by an electorate that is tired of your demonization, racism, and xenophobia, it might be a good idea to rethink your business plan. 

Read more »

Excitement and trepidation: Supreme Court to rule on same-sex marriage

By Michael J.W. Stickings

In case you missed it, there was huge news coming out of SCOTUS yesterday:

The Supreme Court announced on Friday that it would enter the national debate over same-sex marriage, agreeing to hear a pair of cases challenging state and federal laws that define marriage to include only unions of a man and a woman.

One of the cases, from California, could establish or reject a constitutional right to same-sex marriage. The justices could also rule on narrower grounds that would apply only to marriages in California.

The second case, from New York, challenges a federal law that requires the federal government to deny benefits to gay and lesbian couples married in states that allow such unions.

The court's move comes against the backdrop of a rapid shift in public attitudes about same-sex marriage, with recent polls indicating that a majority of Americans support allowing such unions. After the elections last month, the number of states authorizing same-sex marriage increased by half, to nine. 

So the Court may rule on the constitutionality of same-sex marriage, or it may not.

And if it determines, with public opinion shifting and proponents winning at the state level, that it's an issue best left to the political arena, it may punt.

Read more »

A.M. Headlines

(The Star-Ledger): "Gay marriage pressure back on Obama"

(New York Times): "Rice in limbo as nomination remains uncertain"

(Associated Press): "Obama: Republicans blocking middle-class tax cut"

(Reuters): "Michigan 'right-to-work' law exempts existing union contracts"

(The Hill): "Charlie Crist joins the Democrats"

(New York Times): "Egyptian president said to prepare martial law decree"

Good jobs report because Obama was re-elected

By Frank Moraes 

The jobs report was released this morning. The headline is good: 146,000 jobs were created and unemployment dropped to 7.7%. But you really can't trust the headline. I start most mornings by reading Paul Krugman, but this morning I went directly to Dean Baker. In a sense, Baker is the most important economic writer we have. He is a total buzzkill. So on the one hand, if there's bad news hidden in the jobs report, he will know it. On the other hand, if he's optimistic, it's time to sell those government bonds and buy some real estate! (Or something. Don't take investment advice from me or you'll end with my portfolio: .)

Unfortunately, there is no word yet from Baker. So I went elsewhere. I knew WonkBlog would not let me down, and indeed, Dylan Matthews provides the usual competent overview of the numbers (Brad Plumer also has a good overview):

• 146,000 jobs created in November;
• Unemployment dropped to 7.7%;
• September-October jobs created revised down by 49,000 total;
• Labor force participation is generally stable at 63.6%;
• Job creation is all in the private sector, public sector losses.

Read more »

P.M. Headlines

(USA Today): "Gay rights proponents, opponents herald court action"

(CNN): "Talks go on in private despite what Obama, Boehner say in public"

(New York Times): "Obama proposes a $60.4 billion storm recovery bill"

(Bloomberg): "Payrolls in U.S. increase more-than-forecast 146,000"

(Haaretz): "Despite Morsi's call for national dialogue, Egypt braces for more protests"

(CBS News): "Nurse in Duchess Kate hoax dead in apparent suicide"

This day in history - Dec. 7, 1941: The Japanese attack Pearl Harbor

By Richard K. Barry

Well, of course, that's what happened on this day in history. The Wiki on this reads:

The Imperial Japanese Navy attacked the United States Pacific Fleet and its defending Army Air Forces and Marine air forces at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, causing a declaration of war upon Japan by the United States. Japan also invaded Malaya, Thailand, Hong Kong, the Philippines, and the Dutch East Indies at the same time (December 8 in Asia).

When I was growing up in the '60s, every kid knew that date. Perhaps they still do. I don't know. That's not a critical comment. Time passes, consciousness of historical events shifts. It's like the fact that kids entering high school now are probably too young remember 9/11, which seems like it happened last week to me. 

Cliff report

By Mustang Bobby

Lines are being drawn, erased, and redrawn in the sand: 

House Republicans are privately contemplating a quiet surrender in the fight over Bush tax rates for top earners, and a quick pivot to a new fight over raising the debt limit, in which they'd demand steep cuts to programs like Medicare and Social Security.

The White House's official position on this plan is: cram it. Officials say they will not negotiate, or pay a ransom. Congress has to raise the debt limit, period.

"I will not play that game," Obama told the Business Roundtable on Wednesday. "We are not going to play that game next year. We've got to break that habit before it starts."

But privately, Obama and Democratic leaders have sought to weave a debt limit increase into ongoing negotiations to avert automatic tax increases and spending cuts at the end of the year. Their clear preference is to defuse that bomb now, in a bipartisan way, rather than to stare down the House GOP pointing a gun at the country's economy.

And recent remarks by Democratic leaders and interviews with top congressional aides suggest Democrats have no consensus plan to execute if the debt ceiling isn't increased before the end of the year.

From a purely observational standpoint, my guess is that we'll get very close to the edge of the cliff but not actually go over it. The White House knows that and so does John Boehner. It's now just a matter of getting close to it.

Read more »

No rights at work in Michigan

By Frank Moraes 

I'm thinking of starting a weekly rundown of the best writing I find online, because a lot of it doesn't get mentioned here because I have nothing to add. That is very much true of John Nichols at The Nation who manages to write brilliantly on the local and national level. This evening, he wrote an article that gave me a little bit of hope about Michigan, "GOP, Koch Brothers Sneak Attack Guts Labor Rights in Michigan."

As you have likely heard, the Michigan senate managed to ram through a right-to-work bill and it is certain to be passed by the house and signed by Governor Rick Snyder. Unfortunately -- and I think this is a big part of its power -- most people are confused about what right-to-work means. It certainly sounds like a good thing; who could be against more rights?! But as with similarly Orwellian phraseology like the Clear Skies Act, it is bad. Nichols suggests the term "no-rights-at-work."

Read more »

Montgomery Burns explains the "fiscal cliff"

Memory hole

By Mustang Bobby

You've heard about the right wing's long-time battle with remembering things to get outraged about, haven't you?

The December 5 edition of conservative pundit Laura Ingraham's newsletter attacked President Obama for recently meeting with MSNBC personalities, claiming that "if Fox News hosts and conservative personalities had stopped by the Bush White House to discuss policy" the press "would have been rightly outraged." But President Bush did meet with a group of Fox News and conservative personalities at the White House — including Laura Ingraham...

The New York Times reported in October 2006 that Bush hosted a group of conservative personalities including Fox News contributor and frequent guest host Ingraham...

Ms. Ingraham seems to forget that people remember these things.

H/T to Steve M.

(Cross-posted at Bark Bark Woof Woof.)

One man's (mis)understanding of politics

By Richard K. Barry

Political prognosticator Stuart Rothenberg is a smart guy. I'm sure of that. But maybe he should take a step away from what he does for a living to reconsider his own understanding of politics. In a recent piece in Roll Call he argues that it might be good if we all took a break from politics:

Politics is fun, interesting and important, but at the end of the day, it is merely a way of picking the folks who have to make difficult decisions about public policy — including the fiscal cliff, tax reform, entitlements, the Middle East and immigration reform.

Those with some benefit of formal education in political science might recognize this view as the theory of democratic elitism. Politics is about electing decision makers. Once that job is done we are all encouraged to sit back while they do their job until the next time we have to decide on a potentially new set of decision makers, or perhaps choose to keep the same ones.

Read more »

A.M. Headlines

(Huffington Post): "Debt ceiling bluff called by Harry Reid, leaving Mitch McConnell to filibuster himself"

(Washington Post): "For Demint, an unconventional move"

(Reuters): "Superstorm Sandy to dampen payrolls"

(Associated Press): Obama's approval rises post-election"

(Politico): "Barack Obama, Mitt Romney both topped $1 Billion in 2012"

(Voice of America): "Syrian troops bomb Damascus suburbs"

P.M. Headlines

(CBS News): "Jim DeMint leaving Senate for Heritage Foundation"

(Washington Post): "Republicans wave the white flag"

(Politico): "Christie on Hill seeking Sandy relief money"

(MarketWatch): "U.S. stocks end higher; technology rebounds"

(Voice of America): "Panetta: Syria considering using chemical weapons"

(BBC News): "Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi calls for dialogue"

John Hall's very cool choice

By Richard K. Barry 

In the 2006 election, I quite enjoyed watching my home congressional district, NY-19, go to John Hall. Good news not only because he is a Democrat but because he is also a fairly well-known musician, having co-founded the successful '70s group Orleans. They had a few hits with songs like "Still the One" and "Dance with Me." 

He served from 2007 to 2011 before being defeating in that dreadful 2010 midterm slaughter by Republican Nan Hayworth.

Yesterday, as I was doing a bit of research on various congressional elections, I came across something interesting. In July 2011, Hall announced that he would not seek a rematch with Haywoth, saying that he wanted to spend more time with his family, a common thing for politicians to want. The less common thing he said was that he also chose not to run because he wanted to have more time to travel across the country with his band.

As it turned out, he worked with state Democrats to find a good alternative in Sean Patrick Maloney, who went on to defeat Hayworth. Democrats targeted the seat and with Obama's strong showing in New York Hall had to know he was very likely to return to the House.

But no, in addition to other personal commitments, he needed to get back to his music.
 
Read more »

Same ol' Rubio plus "middle class"

By Frank Moraes

David Weigel posted an article at Slate yesterday, "Marco Rubio Mentions the Middle Class 35 Times in One Speech." But that's not really what it's about. But it does get to the heart of the matter. You see, Rubio mentioned the middle class, but never really engaged with the concept.

As I've noted before, this is par for the course when it comes to Republicans. Their idea of reaching out to groups that aren't already part of their coalition is to talk nice. There will be no changes to policy! I understand where they're coming from. Republicans have been very good over the past several decades at convincing people who have very contrary interests to vote for them anyway. Why wouldn't they think it will continue to work? And the sad thing is that they may well be right.

This is SOP: take traditional Republican positions and claim that they are good for the middle class. So Weigel notes that Rubio just reworks his standard speech except that "stuff that Republicans wanted to do already becomes stuff that will help 'the middle class.'" And just look at what that stuff is!

Rubio says, "Sound monetary policy would also encourage middle class job creation." This is just the old "job creator" canard dressed up. The Federal Reserve has a duel mandate: keep inflation low and employment high. But Republicans don't like this. They want the Fed to have a single mandate: keep inflation low. The claim is that this will help employment by helping the "job creators." This is supply-side economics: the money will tinkle down on the poor.


Read more »

Craziest Republican of the Day: Louie Gohmert

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Gohmert gets this award a lot (e.g., here and here). But there's just no denying it: he's fucking crazy. (And a fucking idiot; see, e.g., here and here.) Here's more proof:

The House voted on Wednesday to strike the word "lunatic" from all federal laws and only one lawmaker voted against the measure: Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas). 

It was unclear initially why the Tea Party favorite opposed the change, and a Gohmert spokeswoman did not return a request for comment. The point of the bill, which cleared the Senate in May with no opposition, is to strike language from current law that contributes to the stigmatization of mental health conditions.

But during a rant on the House floor later in the day, about the need for a flat tax, Gohmert shed some light on why the word needs to stay.

"To keep spending and not pay the price, that is immoral," Gohmert said. "That's why we shouldn't eliminate the word 'lunatic.' It really has application around this town."

Right, so it's okay to keep stigmatizing those with mental health problems with a word the medical community rejects. Louie doesn't give a shit. He's got a stupid political point to make, a point that has nothing to do with the matter at hand, and darn it he'll make it even if he has to stand against his own party, the craziest among the crazy, no small feat.

Congrats, Louie! You certainly have a way of distinguishing yourself.

Hillary Watch 2016: Good poll numbers

By Richard K. Barry

(Ed. Note: Okay, it may be early to start thinking about the 2016 presidential election, or maybe it's never too early. Having said that, there is a lot of interest in almost everything the current secretary of state does, so no harm in paying attention. Not that this is an endorsement, and if others start to make moves, on either side of the aisle, we'll take note. -- RKB).

How's this for good news for Hillary Clinton should she decide to run for the top job in 2016: A new ABC/Washington Post poll finds that 57% of voters would support a presidential bid by Ms. Clinton, while only 37% would be opposed.

As for the job she is soon to leave, 69% approve of the work she has done as secretary of state, while she has an overall favorability rating of 67%.

As they say, those are some gaudy numbers. 

Obviously, this would suggest that a lot of people who voted against President Obama have something of a soft spot for Hillary Clinton, though I doubt huge numbers of bedrock Republicans would come over if she ran for the presidency. It is still an impressive point from which to start a potential campaign.

Read more »

Why good people hate them: Republicans reject the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities

By Mustang Bobby

If the Republican Party ever has a moment of introspection — yeah, right — and wonders why they lose elections and get portrayed as cold, heartless, and unfeeling bastards, this would explain it:

The Senate Tuesday fell short of the two-thirds vote required to ratify a United Nations treaty aimed at securing rights for disabled people around the world, when the vast majority of Republican senators voted against the treaty. The final vote was 61-38 vote. All the nay votes were Republican.

The Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities essentially makes the 1990 Americans With Disabilities Act a non-binding international standard. It requires no change to U.S. law.

Originally signed by then-President George W. Bush in 2006 and re-signed by President Barack Obama in 2009 shortly after he took office, the treaty has been championed by former Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS), the one-time GOP presidential nominee who suffered a disability while serving in the Army in World War II. Dole was on the Senate floor Tuesday ahead of the ratification vote, in a wheelchair, accompanied by his wife, former Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC).

Longtime Republicans like Sens. John McCain (AZ), Dick Lugar (IN) and John Barrasso (WY) voted for the treaty. But that didn't stop the party's more conservative members from warning that it would violate U.S. sovereignty and dictate to parents with home-schooled children.

"I do oppose the CRPD because I think it does impinge upon our sovereignty," said Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK). "Unelected bureaucratic bodies would implement the treaty and pass so-called recommendations that would be forced upon the United Nations and the U.S. ... This would especially affect those parents who home-school their children. ... The unelected foreign bureaucrats, not parents, would decide what is in the best interests of the disabled child, even in the home."

Inhofe was joined by Republican Sens. Jim DeMint (SC), Mike Lee (UT), Marco Rubio (FL) and most of the party's leadership in quashing the treaty. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY), who is up for re-election in 2014, voted against it.

Read more »

Don't fear the non-existent "fiscal cliff"

By Michael J.W. Stickings 

"WH 'Absolutely' Willing To Go Off 'Fiscal Cliff,'" headlines ABC News, breathlessly hyping the drama:

President Obama's lead negotiator in the "fiscal cliff" talks said the administration is "absolutely" willing to allow the package of deep automatic spending cuts and across-the-board tax hikes to take effect Jan. 1, unless Republicans drop their opposition to higher income tax rates on the wealthy.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in an interview with CNBC that both sides are "making a little bit of progress" toward a deal to avert the "cliff" but remain stuck on Obama's desired rate increase for the top U.S. income-earners.

"There's no prospect for an agreement that doesn't involve those rates going up on the top two percent of the wealthiest," Geithner said. 

And you know why Obama and his team are willing to go off the "fiscal cliff"?

Because the president has all the leverage: He just won re-election. The Bush tax cuts are expiring, meaning he can push for popular middle-class tax cuts as part of any deal without giving up too much in terms of revenue. The Republicans are up against public opinion in promoting an extension of the Bush tax cuts for the rich, as well as cuts to Medicare and Social Security, two hugely popular programs. And Obama is much more popular than Republicans these days anyway.

Because it should be fairly easy for Obama to get what he wants without having to give up too much and without forcing the Republican leadership to accept a deal they can't sell to their party (even if the right-wing base pushes back).

Because it just makes more sense to get a deal done in January.

And because... there's no fucking fiscal cliff.

Read more »

Senator Michelle Obama?

By Richard K. Barry

They poll everything these days, some of it actually useful. Public Policy Polling has decided to give Michelle Obama's post-First Lady career a little boost by asking the good voters of Illinois what they might think of a Senate run for Mrs. Obama should she be so inclined.

As it turns out, to perhaps no one's surprise, she does okay:

If Michelle Obama decided she wanted to follow the Hillary Clinton route once her husband leaves office in 2016 and go to the Senate, she'd have the upper hand on Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL). She leads him 51/40 in a hypothetical head to head. Kirk's approval numbers are ok with 34% of voters approving of him to 19% who disapprove. But those numbers are no match for the first lady, who's seen positively by 60% of voters to 33% with a negative one.

She's a very accomplished woman with some rather massive name recognition. Why not?

Here we go

By Carl 

Maybe the Mayans were right after all...

Syrian forces have mixed chemical weapons and added them to bombs in preparation for possible use on President Bashar Assad's own people, Fox News confirms.

A senior U.S. official told Fox News that bombs were loaded with components of sarin gas, a deadly nerve gas. Syrian forces have 60 days to use these bombs until the chemical mixture expires and has to be destroyed.

The nerve agent has been loaded into canisters in aerosol form that can be dropped from planes, Fox said. A Fox reporter spoke with Pentagon officials, who expressed grave concern. Sarin is capable of killing many people in a short time. There is no antidote.

Earlier, Fox reported that U.S. troops were deploying to the Syrian border for defensive purposes.

Any solution to the Syrian conflict that comes before sarin is deployed will be tricky, and the pressure to deploy sarin has been anted up as rebels continue to advance on Damascus.

Already, Russia has warned Turkey about meddling in the internal politics of Syria, a major arms purchaser from Russia. Those differences have been papered over in recent days, but the use of sarin gas would cast a whole new light on the tenuous agreement.

Read more »

A.M. Headlines

(ABC News): "WH 'absolutely' willing to go off 'cliff'"

(New York Times): "Boehner gains strong backing of House GOP"

(Washington Post): "Some in GOP see broader fiscal deal"

(USA Today): "Clinton, UN envoy to meet over Syria"

(WBAL Radio): "Maryland's same sex marriage law takes effect today"

(New York Times): "Dave Brubeck, jazz musician, dies at 91"

Dave Brubeck (1920-2012)

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Dave Brubeck, famed jazz pianist and composer, died today at the age of 91.

I must admit, I'm no great fan of jazz, though I respect and admire it, and Brubeck's progressive jazz, while entertaining, has never really been my thing (though I do have Time Out on CD and like it a lot).

But still. There's no denying his talent, nor his stature in American music.

And you knew this was coming, right? Here's his most famous piece of music, "Take Five," the long version with extended piano and drum solos, performed in Belgium in 1964.

The Dave Brubeck Quartet here is Brubeck on piano, Eugene Wright on bass, Joe Morello on drums, and Paul Desmond, Brubeck's long-time collaborator and the writer of "Take Five," on alto sax.

I can't speak to the technicalities the way Richard can, he being a talented saxophonist and all, but to me it's a damn fine piece of music.

Protection when you least expect it

By Frank Moraes

This sign that has been posted all over New York City reads, "NYPD Drones: Protection When You Least Expect It."

It is an excellent example of urban art which makes a difference. And thus it has to be stopped!

The NYPD held a weeks-long manhunt for the artist. They finally arrested Essam Attia and charged him with 56 trumped-up charges, including a weapons charge for an unloaded .22 rifle he kept under his bed.

Explain to me again how we don't live in a police state.

(Cross-posted at Frankly Curious.)

Hillary Watch 2016

By Richard K. Barry

My guess is that a lot of people will be trying to read the tea leaves when it comes to whether Hillary Clinton will or won't go for it in 2016.

The latest is a report by Politicker that Ms. Clinton took it upon herself to send hand-signed notes to Democratic candidates who fell short in their congressional races:

For example, Nate Shinagawa, who narrowly lost his challenge to GOP Rep. Tom Reed in Western New York, received a missive from Ms. Clinton two days after his defeat. In her letter, Ms. Clinton offered some supportive words and encouragement for Mr. Shinagawa's future political endeavors.

"You should be proud of your campaign and the dialogue you had with voters about the values we hold dear as Democrats," Ms. Clinton wrote. "Thank you for accepting the challenge of seeking public office and for your commitment to creating a better future for the American people."

Several sources have said that this is something new for Hillary Clinton, saying that as far as they knew she had not sent similar letters in the past.

Read more »

Karl Rove and Dick Morris are too toxic even for Fox News

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Daily Intel:

According to multiple Fox sources, [Roger] Ailes has issued a new directive to his staff: He wants the faces associated with the election off the air — for now. For Karl Rove and Dick Morris — a pair of pundits perhaps most closely aligned with Fox's anti-Obama campaign — Ailes's orders mean new rules. Ailes's deputy, Fox News programming chief Bill Shine, has sent out orders mandating that producers must get permission before booking  Rove or Morris. Both pundits made several appearances in the days after the election, but their visibility on the network has dropped markedly.

Morris is an embarrassing buffoon, and so it's possible that he'll get significantly less airtime on Fox now that he's been exposed (yet again) as a fraudulent hack.

But don't think for a second that Rove, perhaps the leading Republican strategist and fundraiser, and certainly one of the engines that drives the party establishment, is really on the outs at what is clearly a partisan Republican organization. His election predictions and election-night shenanigans were similarly buffoonish, not least when he found himself at odds with the network's number-crunchers, but he can be excused in Republican circles for thinking that Romney's internal polling was accurate (when it was anything but) and perhaps also that Republican voter suppression efforts would ultimately put Romney over the top (an issue he's trying to deflect by turning the accusation on Obama, which is ridiculous).

Mark my words: Rove will be back sooner than you can fart "Turd Blossom" to the tune of "Paradise by the Dashboard Light."

(photo)

Discord among the Astroturf

By Mustang Bobby

Former Rep. Dick Armey is bailing on the Tea Party group he helped start:

Armey, the former House majority leader who helped develop and promote the GOP's Contract with America in the 1990s, tendered his resignation in an memo sent to Matt Kibbe, president and CEO of FreedomWorks, on November 30. Mother Jones obtained the email on Monday, and Armey has confirmed he sent it. The tone of the memo suggests that this was not an amicable separation.

[...]

In the email, Armey indicated that he wants nothing to do with FreedomWorks anymore. He asked that all user names, passwords, and security-related data created in his name be emailed to him by the close of business on December 4. He even insisted that FreedomWorks -- "effective immediately" -- was "prohibited" from using a booklet he authored. Was Armey's resignation a reaction to the recent election results? "Obviously I was not happy with the election results," he says. "We might've gotten better results if we had gone in a different direction. But it isn't that I got my nose out of line because we should've done better."

Armey declined to specify his disagreements with FreedomWorks. Asked if they were ideological or tactical, he replies, "They were matters of principle. It's how you do business as opposed to what you do. But I don't want to be the guy to create problems."

I don't know if this is a sign of a larger trend among the nutsery or just an internal difference at FreedomWorks, but it's not altogether unexpected after losing an election that they portrayed as the Most Important Election in the history of the world. They've been working on destroying the Democrats and Barack Obama for so long and not only did he get re-elected, the Democrats actually gained seats in the House and Senate.

They also spent a certifiable shitload of money to get nothing. Sheldon Adelson, the Las Vegas casino magnate, spent more than $150 million of his own money, first in support of Newt Gingrich, then on other races, and crapped out. In Ohio, Josh Mandel spent about $23 a vote to lose to Sherrod Brown. So there has to be a lot of pissed-off people on the right, and it's natural that they start eating their own.

You want fries with that?

(Cross-posted at Bark Bark Woof Woof.)

Screw rich a little, poor a lot

By Frank Moraes

I try not to read David Brooks, but Matt Yglesias tricked me into reading him with this tweet:

I don't understand what David Brooks is proposing here or why:nytimes.com/2012/12/04/opi…
— Matt Yglesias (@mattyglesias) December 4, 2012

So I went ahead and read "The Truly Grand Bargain." What Brooks is doing is a bit of a mystery. Normally, I would think he was just admitting that some Republican demands are hopeless. For example, the top marginal tax rate will go up to 39.6% automatically on 1 January. But he isn't calling for that. Instead, he claims that the Republicans should be, "Willing to see top tax rates go up to 36 percent or 37 percent." What?!

But it gets worse. He wants major cuts to Medicare and Social Security in exchange for this one or two percentage point increase in the top tax bracket and a one year ceasefire in the Republican war on the United States credit rating, know as the debt ceiling. Dean Baker did some calculations on this offer. He finds that Brooks is asking for a 6% cut to poor retirees' incomes and in exchange, Brooks is offering a 1.5% cut in the incomes of the rich through tax increases.

Baker notes, "It's interesting to think about what he would suggest putting on the table if the Republicans had won the election."

Read more »

The sound of heads exploding on Wall Street

By Richard K. Barry

It is being reported that Senator-elect Elizabeth Warren, the arch-nemesis of big banks everywhere, is likely to be named to the Senate Banking Committee. 

According to The Boston Globe:

The appointment has not been formally announced by Senate leaders and will not be final until an official vote on assignments by the members. The pending appointment was described to the Globe by aides who requested anonymity because Senate Majority Leader Reid has not made a formal announcement.

You will recall that after Warren helped create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau as part of the Dodd-Frank financial regulatory act, Senate Republicans threatened to block her appointment to head the agency. This led to her successful bid for a Senate seat all her own.

And now she's on the Senate Banking Committee.

Bwahahahaha!!!

Republicans being even more Republican in response to election

By Michael J.W. Stickings

This is great:

PPP's first post election national poll finds that Republicans are taking the results pretty hard...and also declining in numbers.

49% of GOP voters nationally say they think that ACORN stole the election for President Obama. We found that 52% of Republicans thought that ACORN stole the 2008 election for Obama, so this is a modest decline,...

And here's the kicker:

...but perhaps smaller than might have been expected given that ACORN doesn't exist anymore.

Republicans have always had trouble with reality, but it's good to see that their delusions are deepening and their true colors shining even more brightly than usual:

Some GOP voters are so unhappy with the outcome that they no longer care to be a part of the United States. 25% of Republicans say they would like their state to secede from the union compared to 56% who want to stay and 19% who aren't sure.

Remember that next time they say they love their country and like scoundrels use patriotism as a political bludgeon.

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The end of his story

By Carl 

Back in 1992, all-around idiot Francis Fukuyama posited the end of history. His rationale was, now that the Soviet Union was dead and the then-nascent Chinese economy was tooling up to be globally competitive, the ideology of liberal democracy married to capitalism would take hold and the world would enter a glorious era of unicorns and bunnies.

Twenty years on, it seems more a warped Peter Pan nightmarish scenario. Even America has lost the thread of that ridiculous ideology that Fukuyama posited after twelve years of Reagan/Bush.

Now, no one is disputing that more of the world has tended towards democracy in the past twenty years. One only need look back over the past decade, even just the past year, to see dictatorship after dictatorship topple and fall, either from internal forces such as the Arab Spring or external forces as the Gulf Wars.

But Fukuyama's point, that democracy is somehow the best political system for a nation's economics, has been thrown into disrepute, even just in America. The past twelve years have seen 99% of the nation fall far behind corporatist economic growth and since corporations control the democracy... well, would anyone posit that having the lowest possible tax rates on corporations has done anything to improve either the democracy or the economy?

Enter Josh Barro of Bloomberg. His dad is Robert Barro, one of the signal figures in macroeconomic policy, a man so adept at the field that it's his text book students read. A man who is now working on trying to codify how religion fits into the macroeconomic picture. So he has a deep background in economics.

Josh is a former fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think-tank -- the board of directors includes Bill Kristol -- so he's hardly a socialist. He seems to get it:

Conservatives do not have economic ideas that are good for the middle class. Since the 1970s, wage gains have decoupled from productivity gains and the median family has therefore reaped a disproportionately small share of the benefits of growth. Conservatives are left without anything to say about this problem.

What can they say about it? I have a few ideas, though I don't think conservatives are likely to like any of them too much.

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Where the hell is Jan Brewer?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Persecuting immigrants? Targeting non-whites?

Daily Intel:

Occasionally amusing Arizona governor Jan Brewer is on some sort of secret out-of-state trip for the rest of the week, the details of which her office refuses to divulge. Even the Arizona secretary of State, who is serving as the acting governor until Brewer returns, hasn't been told what the trip is about. Everyone has already made the Appalachian Trail joke, so just don't.

Has anyone checked Argentina? (Does that count?)

A.M. Headlines

(Politics): "Obama to press business leaders on fiscal cliff"

(New York Times): "In tax fight, GOP seeks a position to fall back on"

(Wall Street Journal): "GOP deficit plan irks conservatives"

(Politico): Democrats to Obamaland: Share your data"

(Public Policy Polling): "Republicans not handling election results well"

(Reuters): "Majority of Americans support legalizing marijuana: poll"

Not serious

By Mustang Bobby

The Republicans said that President Obama's offer on the fiscal cliff fix was "not serious." So they came back with one of their own:

That framework aims to raise new revenue through an overhaul of the tax code. It also calls for slicing $600 billion from federal health programs, in part by increasing the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67, and saving $200 billion by applying a less generous measure of inflation to all federal programs, including Social Security benefits, according to GOP aides.

For the first time, Boehner managed to get his entire leadership team — including conservative champions such as House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (Va.) and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (Wis.), the 2012 vice-presidential candidate — to publicly sign on to a plan that explicitly calls for new tax revenue. Republicans say they are willing to extract all the new tax money from households earning more than $250,000 a year, the same group Obama wants to target with higher tax rates. But the GOP plan would raise the money by wiping out deductions instead of raising rates.

In a meeting with reporters, Boehner called it "a credible plan that deserves serious consideration by the White House."

It's basically the same stuff that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan were offering up until about a month ago when they lost the election. No tax rate changes, severe cuts to programs for the middle class, and deficit reduction through the magic of closing loopholes, which is one step away from traveling to the Delta Quadrant via a wormhole.

The only point of this counter-offer was to show what "not serious" really looks like. 

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