By Michael J.W. Stickings
At this stage in the campaign, Barack Obama is in a strong position compared with past victorious presidential candidates. With an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, Obama holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including Obama four years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage.
And Mitt Romney, if I may venture out on a limb, is no Bill Clinton.
As Ed Kilgore writes, pretty much stating the obvious, this is really bad news for Mitt.
Not only does Obama enjoy a substantial lead in the horserace, he tops Romney on a number of key dimensions. His support is stronger than his rival's, and is positive rather than negative. Mitt Romney's backers are more ardent than they were pre-convention, but are still not as enthusiastic as Obama's. Roughly half of Romney's supporters say they are voting against Obama rather than for the Republican nominee. With the exception of Bill Clinton in 1992, candidates lacking mostly positive backing have lost in November.
Labels: 1988 election, 1992 election, 1996 election, 2000 election, 2004, 2008 election, 2012 election, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, election, Mitt Romney, polls