Friday, September 21, 2012

The Senate's looking good for Democrats

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Politico:

Democratic candidates in some of the most critical Senate races in the country are surging, putting the party in its best position of the election cycle to keep its majority in November.

The reasons range from the post-convention bounce led by President Barack Obama, to potent Democratic attack ads, to anemic performances of some GOP candidates.

Fresh polling in marquee contests shows a distinct trend line in the Democrats' favor, making the GOP's narrow path to a Senate majority significantly more difficult with less than two months until the election.

Democratic candidates in Virginia, Massachusetts and Wisconsin are on the rise after navigating a summer of challenges, and benefiting from Obama's growing strength in all three states. In Florida and Ohio, Democratic incumbents have so far withstood a tidal wave of spending by conservative super PACs and outside groups.
 
There's still a long way to go, many of these races are still really close -- including for Tim Kaine in Virginia, Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, even if the numbers have them looking better and better -- and I'm really trying not to let optimism get the better of me.

But as Nate Silver writes: "[I]f the trend continues, the question may no longer be whether Republicans can win the Senate -- but how vulnerable they are to losing the House."
 
And I can't help but get a little giddy.

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