Nate Silver on the GOP's chances of capturing the Senate (not good)

By Richard K. Barry

I strongly recommend you have a look at Nate Silver's always thorough analysis as he makes his case for the likelihood that the Democrats will hold onto the Senate in November.

He writes:

Democrats are now favored to retain control of the Senate when the new Congress convenes in January, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, breaking a summer stalemate during which control of the chamber appeared about equally likely to go either way.

An unusually large number of Senate races remain competitive, meaning that a wide range of outcomes are still possible. Republicans have about a 10 percent chance of winning a net of at least six seats from Democrats, according to the forecast, which would give them control of at least 53 seats next year. However, there is also about a 20 percent chance that Democrats could actually gain Senate seats on balance, giving them at least 54. The only thing that seems completely assured is that neither party will control enough seats next year to hold a filibuster-proof majority.

It's true that much can happen between now and Election Day, but with states like North Dakota and Missouri no longer slam dunks for the GOP, the likely loss of Olympia Snowe's Maine seat to an independent, and the strong possibility that Elizabeth Warren takes Massachusetts from GOP incumbent Scott Brown, it's hard to see how the Republicans can get a net gain of 3 seats (with a presidential win) or 4 (without it), which would be required for a majority.

It's good reading in a week full of good reading for Democrats.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)