Behind the Ad: Elizabeth Colbert Busch's final push

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.) 

Who: The Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) campaign.

Where: South Carolina's First Congressional District.

What's going on: In this ad, Colbert Busch talks about the need for a balanced budget amendment and a ban on special interest earmarks. She also pledges to cut her own pay by ten percent. It is, after all, a red state. She has to make fiscally conservative noises.

With the election a day away, Colbert Busch has been endorsed by the biggest newspaper in the district:

The Charleston (S.C.) Post And Courier endorsed Colbert Busch on Sunday, lauding her as "A new leader for the Lowcountry." Her "resolve to reach across the aisle" would serve South Carolina well on local and national platforms, the paper wrote.

A survey by Public Policy Polling on April 22 had Colbert Busch ahead by nine points, but the GOP-leaning Red Racing Horses had the two candidates tied as of Thursday.

It does appear that it will be close between Colbert Busch and former Republican Gov. Mark Sanford. This one probably is too close to call and may depend on how many conservative women are so disgusted by Sanford that they stay home tomorrow. 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Nasty developments in the South Carolina special House election

By Richard K. Barry

Push polling is a campaign technique that ranges from being a mildly disingenuous practice to downright despicable. It involves a group calling voters under the guise of conducting a legitimate poll, only to ask questions that leave a voter with a very misleading impression that an opposing candidate is in some way unacceptable.

A shadowy group called SSI Polling has been calling voters in South Carolina ahead of the special House election between Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch and Republican Mark Sanford. 

According to ThinkProgress, the questions asked "ranged from outlandish smears to thinly-veiled Republican talking points." The approach varied somewhat from call to call, but these were some of the "questions" asked:

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you she had had an abortion?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you a judge held her in contempt of court at her divorce proceedings?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if she had done jail time?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you she was caught running up a charge account bill?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if she supported the failed stimulus plan?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you unions contributed to her campaign?"

Isn't that amazing? They never actually accuse Colbert Busch of having had an abortion, or being held in contempt by a judge, or having done jail time, etc., but the impression the voters takes away is unmistakable. 


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Mark Sanford debates cardboard Nancy Pelosi

By Richard K. Barry

Losing the special House election in South Carolina may be the least of Mark Sanford's worries. He could be on the way to losing his mind, which is how it must have appeared when he debated a near lifesize picture of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi yesterday.

The gimmick had to do with the fact that Sanford's Democratic challenger Elizabeth Colbert Busch has refused to participate in four debates as Sanford requested and will only debate once. 

Why he didn't get a picture of Colbert Busch I just don't know. Perhaps he's read that Pelosi  is less popular. 

Apparently Sanford asked cardboard Pelosi some tough questions and chided her for her lack of response. Other times he answered for her. It must have been scintillating. 

I guess he could have debated on empty chair, but that's so last August. 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: The DCCC attacks Mark Sanford in South Carolina

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.)  

Who: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Where: Special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District.

What's going on: The DCCC goes after Mark Sanford for alleged ethics violations when he was governor, just a day after the RNCC abandoned his campaign after charges that he trespassed on his ex-wife's property.

It's a clever little ad that makes no mention of Sanford's admitted extramarital affairs, though it shows a man walking through the woods, a reference to the alibi his gave to cover up his trip to Argentina to meet his mistress. Sanford told his aides he was hiking on the Appalachian Trail.

The DCCC is spending about $205,000 on the ad, which will run on broadcast television stations in the Charleston and Savannah, Ga., markets April 19-28, according to a committee source.

Sanford goes up against Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch, sister of Stephen Colbert, in a May 7 special House election to fill the seat vacated when former Rep. Tim Scott (R) was appointed to the Senate.

There is no doubt Sanford could still win in this very red district, but it will likely be close either way.

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Republican Party pulls out of Mark Sanford

By Michael J.W. Stickings

First my wife, now my party...

As I wrote yesterday, a Republican should have no trouble winning an election, special or otherwise, in South Carolina's First Congressional District (even against Elizabeth Colbert Busch, who, famous brother or not, is a political neophyte running in a red district).

Well, unless that Republican is Mark Sanford, the former governor and former holder of this very seat, who has finally, it would seem, crossed the line:

National Republicans are pulling the plug on Mark Sanford's suddenly besieged congressional campaign, POLITICO has learned — a potentially fatal blow to the former South Carolina governor's dramatic comeback bid.

Blindsided by news that Sanford's ex-wife has accused him of trespassing and concluding he has no plausible path to victory, the National Republican Congressional Committee has decided not to spend more money on Sanford's behalf ahead of the May 7 special election.

"Mark Sanford has proven he knows what it takes to win elections. At this time, the NRCC will not be engaged in this special election," said Andrea Bozek, an NRCC spokeswoman.

Translation: The guy's proven to be a massive hypocrite without a shred of genuine self-awareness or humility, and we were still behind him, but enough is enough.

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Mark Sanford, trespasser

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I realize this is for the most part a private matter that probably shouldn't have been made public, but I still find something delicious about it:

Jenny Sanford, the ex-wife of South Carolina congressional candidate and former Gov. Mark Sanford, has filed a lawsuit alleging that her husband trespassed at her home earlier this year, the Associated Press reported Tuesday evening.

According to the AP, Jenny Sanford's attorney filed a lawsuit on Feb. 4 alleging that she confronted Mark Sanford at her home the previous day, where he had been using his cellphone as a light. Trespassing would violate the terms of their divorce settlement, which said that neither would be able to be at the other's home without explicit permission.

A court hearing is slated for May 9, according to the report – two days after Sanford competes in a closely watched special election.

Ah yes, the special election, where he faces the formidable (and not just because of her brother) Elizabeth Colbert Busch. 

South Carolina's First is a solidly Republican district -- in fact, it's been Republican since 1981 (with Democrats holding it before that going all the way back to 1897). Sanford himself held it for three terms, first winning in the Republican wave of 1994. The previous incumbent, Tim Scott, is now in the Senate, and of course the state itself is solidly Republican as well.

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Behind the Ad: NRCC ad attacking Colbert Busch debuts on Vine

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.) 

Who: The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

Where: South Carolina special Congressional election.

What's going on: The NRCC calls this "the first time a political organization has launched an actual ad on Vine to attack an opponent." It focuses on traditional anti-union sentiment in the South to attack Elizabeth Colbert Busch, the Democratic candidate. Vine is a social video service owned by Twitter Inc. 

According Washington Wire:

The ad – which, like all vines, is several seconds of looping video – shows black and white images of sullen-looking faces, with the words: "Colbert Busch and the labor unions mean fewer jobs for South Carolina."

Well, being first might mean something, if it were true. Unfortunately for the RNCC, American Bridge 21st Century made a Vine video earlier this year attacking Ken Cuccinelli, who is seeking the Republican nomination in the Virginia governor race.

I'm not very familiar with the technology, but it would seem that one just clicks on the image, and then clicks on the sound icon to hear or mute the audio. 


(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Does Stephen Colbert's sister have a chance in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Yes. But I'd say it's less than a 50% chance.

According to a new PPP poll, she's doing well:

PPP's first look at the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a toss up race. Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch leads Republican Mark Sanford 47-45 and ties Curtis Bostic at 43.

This is a Republican leaning district and Barack Obama's approval rating in it is only 41% with 57% of voters disapproving of him. But Democrats are far more unified than the Republicans are. Busch is winning 87-89% of the Democratic vote while Sanford (76%) and Bostic (72%) are both earning less than 80% of the GOP vote. Busch is also up by 16-18 points with independent voters.

So far, so good.

Now, (Colbert) Busch's opponent is likely to be Sanford, who's trying to get back into office after, you know, taking some time off to hike the Appalachian Trail. And things do look promising for her:

Focusing in on the potential race between Busch and Sanford it's surprisingly close for one simple reason -- voters like Busch and they continue to strongly dislike Sanford. 45% of voters see Busch favorably to only 31% with a negative opinion. On the other hand Sanford is still stuck with a 34% favorability rating and 58% of voters seeing him in a negative light. 

Voters in the district have every reason to dislike the former governor. Even if you don't want to get into the trials and tribulations of his personal life, he violated the trust the voters of South Carolina placed in him, used state resources to support his philandering, and proved to be, as so many Republicans are, a massive hypocrite without a shred of genuine self-awareness or humility.

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