Obama and Buono and Christie

By Frank Moraes

I just thought of something while reading Patricia Murphy's excellent article, Why National Democrats Rolled Over for Chris Christie. As I've complained about before, President Obama did not endorse Barbara Buono in the New Jersey's governor's race. I've heard it said that Obama did that as a kind of payback for Christie's behavior during Hurricane Sandy right before the 2012 presidential election. I don't know if that's true, but I wouldn't doubt it.

But here's the thing. Christie quite pointedly said at that time that Romney has his man and that he still thought that Romney was the better man for the job than Obama. So why is it that Obama didn't endorse Buono? Not doing so says that he doesn't have a preference. Or not much of one. And that may be! Christie's economic conservatism and social moderation may be exactly what Obama thinks.

I know: the standard line is that Obama is a real liberal but the Republicans just won't allow him to govern that way. He's against taking money away from the old and food away from the poor. It is just all those nefarious advances and pools that stop him from doing what he thinks is right! But I really question that narrative. In fact, I know it's not true. It isn't that Obama is secretly conservative. I don't really know. But he definitely leans conservative on economic issues and is too spineless to lead on liberal social issues. This is a man who would have felt right at home in Reagan's cabinet. And, I mean, that man was forced into supporting same sex marriage by that liberal firebrand Joe Biden!

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The take-away from Christie's Democratic support in New Jersey

 By Richard K. Barry

31 percent of self-identified "liberals" voted for Chris Christie for governor of New Jersey. We all understand that he's the man who stood tall in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. He worked with President Obama to get results for his state. In other words, he worked across the aisle, which is, apparently,  some sort of freakin' miracle these days. He made New Jersey proud and for that a lot of people who shouldn't have voted for him based up his record, voted for him anyway.

The problem is that a lot of folks are going to busy themselves making way to much of this.

Charles P. Peirce at Esquire is one of them (though his characterization of Christie is bang on):

There is no reason on god's earth why a self-identified liberal would vote for Chris Christie. He's a tool of the ascendant oligarchy, awful on women's rights, terrible on infrastructure, very high on union-busting, and a short-tempered, thin-skinned bully into the bargain. If you're a New Jersey Democratic legislator who needs a little somethin'-somethin', I can see why you would support him. But 31 percent of liberals? Please. Because of that number, and because he also got 32 percent of the overall Democratic vote, the Christie '16 narrative is now set in stone. He's the Obamist candidate who can bring folks together. He can end the "divisiveness" in our politics, which will be a way for us to anesthetize ourselves to the reality that one of our two major political parties determined that the nation would not be governed by a black man. We will all move on to glory together because of Chris Christie's healing hand.

I might see it a little differently. A lot of voters all over the country are tired of the extremist Tea Party nonsense. The Democrat establishment intentionally put up no fight in New Jersey, correctly reasoning that it was unwinnable. So, sure, a lot of Democrats in the state voted for an old school Republican against a no-name Democrat to send Tea Party radicals a message that under some circumstances they will consider voting for the GOP.

But just because Christie looks moderate when compared to the Tea Party, which is really who he was running against, doesn't mean he'll look moderate when running against a real Democrat. 

We'll see how that goes, if he ever gets the nomination, which I suspect is unlikely.

As Maine goes...

By Mustang Bobby

Rep. Mike Michaud (D-ME) is running for governor of Maine. And, as he told the world in a column in the Portland Press Herald, he’s gay.

When I entered the race for governor, I did so because I love the state of Maine and am tired of seeing it dragged in the wrong direction. There was never any question that it would be a tough race, but I know I have the vision, the experience and the commitment to lead Maine forward.

Once I jumped to an early lead in the polls, I knew it was only a matter of time before individuals and organizations intent on re-creating the uncertainty that led to our current governor’s election three years ago would start their attacks. Already my opponents have tried to blatantly distort my support for a woman’s right to choose and my tireless commitment to our nation’s veterans.

So I wasn’t surprised to learn about the whisper campaigns, insinuations and push-polls some of the people opposed to my candidacy have been using to raise questions about my personal life. They want people to question whether I am gay.

Allow me to save them the trouble with a simple, honest answer: “Yes I am. But why should it matter?”

That may seem like a big announcement to some people. For me, it’s just a part of who I am, as much as being a third-generation mill worker or a lifelong Mainer. One thing I do know is that it has nothing to do with my ability to lead the state of Maine.

I’m old enough to remember when this kind of news would doom a campaign in utero. Hell, that would have probably doomed a campaign twenty years ago. Now it’s being treated as no big deal, which is as it should be.

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Behind the Ad: Ken (Cuccinelli) and Rick (Santorum)

By Richard K. Barry

Who: The Virginia Democratic Party

Where: Virginia

What's going on: With Election Day just four days away to decide the next governor of Virginia, the ad connects Santorum's extreme views and his support for GOP candidate Cuccinelli in order to score points with less crazy voters.

Politico:

The ad juxtaposes a clip of Santorum talking about banning abortion in the case of rape — “we have to make the best out of a bad situation” — to a quote from Cuccinelli about the consequences of not banning abortion, when he says “God does judge nations, who knows what the future holds."

Politico also points out that in the closing days of the campaign, Santorum is just one of a handful of national Republican figures stepping in to help Cuccinelli, who is trailing Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the polls. Others include Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Rep. Ron Paul,  all of whom will campaign with Cooch between now and Election Day.

Polls can be wrong, but it does look like McAuliffe is in good shape. It's unfortunate this one is about the less bad choice.

What a surprise

By Mustang Bobby

Charlie Crist is officially running for governor of Florida.

The worst-kept secret in politics was confirmed Friday afternoon when the Republican Party of Florida spotted Crist’s official filing with the state Division of Elections.
The former Republican governor-turned Democrat plans a formal announcement at 10 a.m. Monday at St. Petersburg’s Albert Whitted Park, 480 Bayshore Dr. SE, but the state GOP beat him to the punch.

“Gov. Crist looks forward to discussing his priorities for moving Florida forward on Monday morning,” said Steve Schale, a spokesman for Crist who led President Barack Obama’s successful 2008 Florida campaign.

Republicans managed to diminish whatever drama Crist hoped to preside over in his hometown Monday, but it was hardly a secret that Crist was preparing to run against Republican Gov. Rick Scott.

Crist has been courting top Democratic fundraisers from across the state and country in recent months, has launched a new website, and lately is often accompanied by top Democratic strategist Schale. The sleuths at the Florida Republican Party this week also found a “CHARLIE CRIST FOR GOVERNOR — 2014” logo online.

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Why has the Democratic Party abandoned Barbara Buono?

By Frank Moraes

I just saw a segment on All In talking about why it is that the Democratic Party hasn't gotten behind Barbara Buono for governor of New Jersey. Steve Kornacki was guest hosting and he was on with E J Dionne. I admire both of those men and usually agree with them. But I thought they both demonstrated the problem. Democrats just don't seem to give a shit. They are so used to dealing not just with extreme Republicans, but politically clueless Republicans. Chris Christie is an extremist but he is anything but clueless. Most Democrats mistake this for being reasonable.

Both Kornacki and Dionne talked about how the Obama administration didn't want to attack Christie because they were grateful to him for the nice things he said during Hurricane Sandy. There are a couple things they're missing. First, Obama was leading Romney during the entire general election. I believe the nadir of his campaign was when he had a two-thirds chance of winning and Romney had a one-third chance. That was the worstthat Obama ever did. By the time of Sandy, he was doing far far better—he was almost certain to win.

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Behind the Ad: Shaq endorses Chris Christie

By Richard K. Barry

Who: The Chris Christie campaign for governor

Where: New Jersey

What's going on: Well, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey is going to win re-election. That's what's going on. And retired basketball great Shaquille O'Neal is appearing in a new ad endorsing him. 

It's a quiet Sunday afternoon. Not much to discuss. So here. Watch and listen to what Shaq has to say. I know it swayed my opinion.

Ken Cuccinelli's best buddy Ted Cruz

By Richard K. Barry

This is definitely worth a look. American Bridge, a pro-Democratic PAC, found this clip from last year in which Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli sings the praises of extremist GOP Senator Ted Cruz. So far, Cuccinelli has avoided talking about his party's dance with shutting down the government, which I've got to think would be fairly unpopular in a state with so many federal employees.

Cuccinelli said then that we need more Ted Cruzes. I wonder if he is still saying that in public?

Bill Daley changes his mind about wanting to be a politician

By Richard K. Barry

This is really quite interesting. Big time Democratic backroom boy Bill Daley has decided that he'd rather not put himself in harms way as a candidate for elected office, potentially as governor of Illinois. The interesting part is that he actually admits the fact, if not exactly in those words.

The exact words were these:

“One of the things I always thought in my career that I wanted to do, I thought I would be able to have that opportunity, I hoped, would be to run for office. And even though you’re around it for a long time, you really don’t get a sense of the enormity of it until you get into it,” Daley told the Tribune.

“But the last six weeks or so have been really tough on me, struggling with this. Is this really me? Is this really what I want to spend my next five to nine years doing? And is this the best thing for me to do at this stage of my life?” he said. “I’ve come to the conclusion that this isn’t the best thing for me.”

Last June, Daley formed an exploratory committee to run for governor, a typical first step. Through his comments and other activities, it was clear he was going to run for the Democratic nomination against unpopular incumbent Pat Quinn. And then he wasn't.

Daley didn't say he was stepping down to spend more time with his family. He isn't claiming health reasons. He hasn't found God (who may or may not be lost). He just decided that he was wrong about wanting to be a politician.

That kind of thing doesn't happen that often. It's a certain kind of life, being a politician, both in the running and in the governing, and it's not for everyone. Bill Daley has been in the game long enough to know what it's like to be in front of the cameras and he decided against it.

There's no shame in knowing yourself, and kudos to him for that.

Behind the Ad: Terry McAuliffe on natural gas royalties

By Richard K. Barry

(Another in our extensive Behind the Ad series.)

Who: The Terry McAuliffe (D) campaign for governor

Where: Virginia

What's going on: As The Washington Post describes it, the ad is built around a controversy to do with "how - and whether - landowners should be paid royalties by natural gas companies who extract coal-bed methane from their land."

 McAuliffe's Republican opponent in the governor's race, Ken Cuccinelli, gets drawn into this because a federal judge expressed strong concern "at the advice and assistance an assistant attorney general from Cuccinelli’s office (when he was AG) was giving to two energy companies embroiled in a lawsuit."

The bottom line claim is that area residents are saying they are not seeing any money from royalties and Cuccinelli's office was giving information to the energy companies that was used to fight the claims of locals. And then, the ad says, Cuccinelli got $100,000 from said energy companies for his governor's campaign.

And here's a shocking retort from the Cuccinelli campaign:

Cuccinelli’s campaign said McAuliffe had decided to launch the first negative ad of their duel to distract from his own shortcomings.

“If Virginians want a governor who’s willing to use scare tactics to get elected, Terry McAuliffe is their candidate,” said Cuccinelli spokeswoman Anna Nix. “It’s notable that his campaign, with no positive economic message to run on, has decided to go up with negative, misleading TV ads. With regard to the methane case, McAuliffe is deliberately trying to distort the facts in a shameless attempt to drum up votes.”

You will be shocked to learn that Cuccinelli's team is denying any impropriety.

When will they learn that if they haven't got anything nice to say, they shouldn't say anything at all?

I have no idea if this issues resonates in Virginia.

     

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: Building McAuliffe's narrative in Virginia

By Richard K. Barry

Who: The Terry McAuliffe campaign for governor

Where: Virginia

What's going on: Actually, not a lot. It's all about McAuliffe touting his ability to work with the other side, in this case supporting Gov. Bob McDonnell's (R) transportation bill. The point is to reassure those who might see McAuliffe as too much of a blind partisan.

The Hill:

McAuliffe focuses on his effort to help garner Democratic support for the bill, which passed over resistance from some Tea Party-affiliated Republicans in the statehouse — as well as from Virginia Attorney General and GOP gubernatorial nominee Ken Cuccinelli (R), who opposed the bill until shortly before its passage.

What makes this interesting is that as polarized as American politics is, it's still important to let people know you will work for them to get stuff done and not spend all your time throwing bricks at the other side.

As The Hill points out, McAuliffe's Republican opponent Ken Cuccinelli has been trying to smooth some of his own partisan edges. They note, however, that this has been made that much more difficult as the "state GOP nominated a pastor who's made controversial remarks over gays and abortion in the past to be his running mate."

Or, as Daily Kos put it:

E.W. Jackson isn't just an oppo researcher's dream, he's an oppo researcher's mescaline-fueled fantasy bender riding on pegasus-back. Every day there's something new and amazing about the Virginia GOP's lieutenant governor nominee.

Anyway, they'll be lots more about him soon enough. Here's the boring narrative building ad from McAuliffe:



(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Gov. Christie: Fighting old battles

By Richard K. Barry

Who: Gov. Chris Christie's reelection campaign

Where: New Jersey

What's going on: It's hard to get very excited about the New Jersey governor's race. Christie is going to win. Blah, blah, blah. With the first television commercial of his reelection effort he highlights his bipartisan efforts on behalf of victims of Hurricane Sandy, which is what you'd expect - maybe. 

The spot talks about "working with Democrats and Republicans, believing that as long as you stick to your principles, compromise isn’t a dirty word.” And it is true that Christie has to win reelection in New Jersey before he can contemplate running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. And it is also true that he does well with independents and moderates, which would put him in a good position to  compete in a general election.

But working across the aisle is not the best way to appeal to Republican party purists who don't like the big man. It's not the best way to run for the nomination. Criticizing House Republicans over storm relief may work well at home, but perhaps not across the country.

It's an obvious point, but given how easy his victory is going to be in New Jersey, why is he going out of his way to piss off the people in his own party who hate bipartisanship? Why is he still fighting the last war?

Just asking.



(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: Ken Cuccinelli tries to define himself as not crazy in Virginia

By Richard K. Barry

Who: Ken Cuccinelli campaign for governor

Where: Virginia

What's going on: Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli II has an awful record on social issues (think trying to stop prohibitions on gay discrimination at state schools, mandatory ultrasounds, etc.). Even right-wing journalist Jennifer Rubin agrees that his record is precisely the kind of thing Democrats mean when they talk about the right's war on women.

Thus, as Rubin writes, it isn't surprising that Cuccinelli's first ad is "anticipatory defensive,' with his wife trying to make the case that he has actually done some women-friendly things.

Part of Cuccinelli's game plan has to be to convince women and Northern Virginia moderates that he is not a radical conservative.

His opponent is former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe.

Brian Coy, a spokesman for the Democratic Party of Virginia, responded to the ad:

Ken Cuccinelli’s attempts to paper over his extreme record won’t distract Virginians from his attacks on women’s health, his radical politicization of his taxpayer-funded office or his shady conflict of interest with Star Scientific. Just this week, Cuccinelli’s real agenda as Attorney General was clear as his effort to shut down women’s health clinics in the Commonwealth began to take effect.”

A recent poll conducted by Roanoke College* shows Cuccinelli leading McAuliffe by a 34 to 29 percent margin, though more than a third of Virginians are undecided. 



(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)
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*Interviewing for The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Va. between April 8 and April 14, 2013. A total of 629 Virginia residents were interviewed. The sample of land lines and cell phones was prepared by Survey Sampling Inc. of Fairfield, Conn. and was created so that all cell phone and residential telephone numbers, including unlisted numbers, had a known chance of inclusion. Cell phones constituted 23 percent of the completed interviews.