Never too early to think about GOP VP possibilities

By Richard Barry

There were several reports over the weekend that Ohio Governor John Kasich is getting closer to announcing his candidacy for the GOP presidential nomination. 

An interesting adjunct to these stories was speculation that he might be positioning himself for the vice-presidency, although Kasich denied this saying, "I don't play for second." Yes, well, no one in his position ever says anything different. Wouldn't it  be refreshing if a candidate announcing a presidential bid actually said, "I know I can't win but I'd have no problem being second on the ticket."

My guess is that most of those running would at least think about second spot if it were offered. No doubt some of the lesser lights would be absolutely beside themselves with joy if approached.

Among those already running or likely to run, maybe a Bush-Walker ticket would work. Or a Walker-Rubio, even the other way around.

A Bush-Rubio ticket would be interesting in terms of generational balance and appeal to Hispanic voters, though there could be regional concerns with both being from Florida.

I can't imagine Cruz or Paul would be anyone's idea of a VP. And, despite what Kasich says now, given the importance of Ohio on the electoral map, he would certainly be an attractive option.

What about Fiorina to counter Clinton's appeal to women? 

All kinds of balance factors to consider, and the VP nominee obviously doesn't have to be a presidential hopeful. 

Who know? Just thinking it through.

Julian Castro at the top of Clinton's VP list?

By Richard Barry

The Republican Party is no doubt proud of itself for having Hispanic candidates like Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz running for the GOP presidential nomination, as it should be. And then there's Jeb Bush and however it is he positions himself as Hispanic-friendly. Republicans needed to do something about their woeful performance among Hispanic voters in 2102, and perhaps they have, although in my mind a candidate's heritage is less important than whether they will actually support policies that aid those they are trying to court. But that's me.

With this in mind, it was interesting to read that a former Clinton administration official is going around saying "Hillary Clinton will pick Julian Castro as her running mate if she wins the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination."

"What I am hearing in Washington, including from people in Hillary Clinton's campaign, is that the first person on their lists is Julian Castro, the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, who used to be the Mayor of San Antonio," Henry Cisneros, the Housing and Urban Development Secretary under President Bill Clinton, said Sunday on Univision's "Al Punto" program.

"They don't have a second option, because he is the superior candidate considering his record, personality, demeanor and Latin heritage," Cisneros added.

"I think there is a very high possibility that Hillary Clinton may choose Julian Castro,” he said.

Castro has been the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development since July 28, 2014 and served three terms as the Mayor of San Antonio, Texas, from 2009 to 2014.

You may recall that he was widely praised for his keynote address at the 2012 Democratic National Convention.

His name has been out there for a while as a potential Clinton pick, so this is no great surprise. It's just amusing to think that the Republicans could be trumped in this way with an Hispanic candidate a "heart beat away from the presidency," unless of course Rubio or Cruz win the GOP nomination, a long shot at best.

Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy

By Richard K. Barry

This weekend marks 25 years since Democratic vice presidential candidate Lloyd Bentsen landed one of the most memorable knockout blows in political debate history. Republican VP candidate Dan Quayle set the chain of events in motion by comparing himself to Jack Kennedy as a way to describe why he felt he might be ready to assume the top job, should it come to that. 

Pick whatever metaphor you like. A commentator at the time said that if it had been a boxing match, the referee would have stopped the fight. 

One of the greatest skills in politics is to make it seem that your comments are off-the-cuff when in fact they are well rehearsed. My guess is that someone figured out that Quayle was going to go there and Bentsen was waiting for him to do it.

You almost feel sorry for Quayle.

Rep. Paul Ryan gets his 15 minutes of VP love

Sorry, Paul. Not this time. 

The National Review is reporting that Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the Budget Committee chairman, is being vetted by the Romney campaign for the VP slot. The report ads that some top Republican officials are wary of "plucking him from the House, where he is the party's most influential voice on fiscal issues."

Of course, there would be another rather significant reason for not picking him, as Outside the Beltway observes:

Given Ryan’s popularity among the Republican base, it’s not surprising that the Romney campaign would let it leak that they are considering him. At the same time, though, Ryan’s association with a budget that isn’t necessarily popular among the independent voters that Romney will need to attract in swing states is an argument for not selecting him.

Hell, let's not dance around this thing. Paul Ryan's budget plan is so unpopular that, as Jonathan Bernstein at The Plum states, Republicans with the exception of Mitt Romney are running from it.

In describing a new ad in the Montana Senate race being run by the Republican candidate Denny Rehberg, Bernstein writes:

The big news here is that Rehberg is campaigning against the House Republican budget, specifically over its threat to Medicare. Rehberg is one of a relatively small group of House Republicans who opposed the Ryan budget. The big question in House races, of course, is what price all of those Members who voted with Ryan will pay, if any.

Of 16 Republican candidates most likely to become new Senators in 2013, only 2 touted the Ryan budget on their web pages. None of them went as far as Rehberg now has gone in specifically denouncing it, but clearly there’s no eagerness to climb about the Ryan train, either because they think it’s bad policy or, more likely, because it polls badly, even in red states such as Missouri, Arizona, and even Nebraska, where nominee Deb Fischer is silent about it.

Yes, turning Medicare into a voucher program still polls badly. What that means is that Romney is giving Ryan a little love by considering him because Ryan is popular with the base, but he's not getting the gig. It would be a far too distracting choice and Romney doesn't need the election to be a referendum on privatizing Medicare. It's not going to happen.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

Rand Paul for VP? Maybe not

By Richard K. Barry

Pick me. I'll try really hard not to embarrass you.

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) just let us all know that it would be an honour to be asked to serve as Mitt Romney's running mate. I must say that I always wondered what GOP presidential hopeful Ron Paul's game was when he took it easy on Romney throughout the nomination process. Was he clearing a path for his son to be considered by Romney?

You may know that Rand Paul is one crazy-ass Tea Party radical, who is not going to get close to being Romney's VP choice no matter how badly he may want it. It's just not going to happen. Romney doesn't need to court hard-core right winger voters. He needs swing voters, so-called independents, to get on board the "Willard Wagon."

When Rand Paul, with his Ayn Rand credentials, muses about even the slightest possibility he might be tapped, you have to wonder how familiar he is with reality, and if he actually believes that the crazy shit he peddles makes sense to anyone outside the tri-corner hat wearing, Koch-brothers-paid-for, crazy bunch who used to go to those always entertaining rallies. You remember, the "we-left-our-guns-home-this-time" crazy bastards who used to get so much air time on Fox?

What is interesting about this, though, is not just that Rand Paul thinks he might be considered as the big #2 (pun intended), but that the Tea Party apparently "wants in" on the Romney love fest. Everyone on the right is tripping over themselves to be a part of "Team Romney," as we knew they would - further proof that the right knows its own interests better than the left, who never have been very good at toeing the line. Yes, class warfare is alive and well on the right. The left might want to take notes.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

Would Romney ask Jeb Bush to be his VP?

By Richard K. Barry

I saw Jeb Bush musing about his interest in being Romney's VP choice on the panel shows this morning.

I don't think Jeb would have much to lose if asked. If Romney wins, he gets to be VP with a good shot at the top job in eight years. If Romney loses, a more likely scenario, Jeb gets a big leg up for the GOP nomination in 2016.

But I don't think Romney will ask. So far "Bush" has been a four letter word few in the GOP have wanted to utter since before 2008. It will be pretty hard to avoid it if it's actually on all the campaign literature and right up there on the big signs.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

Is Ohio Senator Rob Portman the leading contender for Romney's VP?

By Richard K. Barry

Rob Portman and Mitt Romney

According to one report, a consensus amongst influential Republicans is starting to form around Ohio Senator Rob Portman for Romney's VP choice.

As BuzzFeed tells it:

In an informal survey of more than half of the Republican State Chairmen and national committee people at this weekend’s State Chairman meeting at a resort here (Scottsdale, Arizona), two-thirds said they believe Portman is the most-likely and best-qualified running-mate for Mitt Romney.

Portman's credentials include the fact that he is a former Congressman from the Cincinnati area, was the director of the Office of Management and Budget during the George W. Bush Administration, and was elected to the Senate in 2010.

Presumably Portman's bona fides as an economy guy in the "W" administration are supposed to be a good thing for Romney. Not sure about that.

The funniest part, though, comes in a couple of comments about Portman by Republican national committee people at the meeting:

“He’s not going to be Palin — he’s not going to be fighting to get in front of cameras, [Portman] knows his place,” said one Midwestern committeeman. 

“He was born to be the guy standing next to the guy,” said another member. “He’s the type of guy who ran for vice president of his high school student council.”

I love that line: "He's was born to be the guy standing next to the guy." Let's face it, Romney will have to do some real hunting to find a running-mate who won't overshadow him. Looks like he may have found what he needs.

Big yawn.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)