Live-blogging the 2012 Illinois primary: A big win for Romney, but is it big enough?

By Michael J.W. Stickings, with Richard K. Barry and tmcbpatriot

UPDATED FREQUENTLY. KEEP SCROLLING DOWN FOR NEW ENTRIES.

7:09 pm - Alright, we turn this evening to the Land of Lincoln, a Republican who undoubtedly would have despised today's Republican Party, and to the next stop for the Republican Crazy Train on its long, drawn-out tour of America.

7:13 pm - Today's primary in Illinois is the next big thing in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. It's one of those genuinely important contests, made all the more important apparently with all the media attention it's been getting.

7:15 pm - And yet, there's really not much to be said, is there? (See tmcbpatriot's post that just went up for some excellent analysis. He knows a thing or two about Illinois, that's for sure.) Romney will win, probably by quite a bit. Unlike Alabama and Mississippi, for example, it's just not a state where Santorum can do all that well, even if he wins most of the southern, South-like part of the state. Romney will trounce him in and around Chicago. A recent PPP poll had Romney up by 15 points. The RCP average is Romney +10, and it looks like Romney's been pulling away. Now, my sense is that Santorum can outperform here just as he did in Alabama and Mississippi, just not to that degree, and elsewhere, but I think we're still looking at a 7-9-point win for Romney. I've been tempted to predict 7, but it'll probably be higher. Perhaps the question is only whether it'll be a double-digit win or not. Even if I'm saying, oh, say, 8, I wouldn't be all that surprised if it turned out to be 11 or 12. (15 is an outlier, I think.)

7:27 pm - But... Okay, sure, Illinois is a state Romney should be able to win fairly easily. And a 10+-point margin of victory would certainly be decisive. But once again we're encountering a contest that isn't taking place on a level playing field. As Politico reports, Romney has outspent Santorum 7 to 1 in Illinois, including an incredible 21 to 1 in Chicago (with a huge media market that extends all through the state). This isn't like the Yankees outspending and beating, say, the Kansas City Royals, this is like the Yankees outspending and crushing a AA team of misfits. It may be fair in that the rules are being followed, but it's not fair in any other sense. And it puts what is expected to be a significant Romney win in perspective. He might have won even with a level playing field, but it certainly would be closer, and it merely serves to remind us, and to reinforce one of this race's key narratives, that Romney can only win, or at least can perhaps only win (appearance being almost as powerful as reality), by outspending his beleaguered rivals by huge margins, that is, that he can only win because he and his campaign are rich.

7:36 pm - Polls close at 8 pm ET. We'll be back shortly.

8:03 pm - And that's it. The Reaction calls the 2012 Illinois Republican primary for... Mitt Romney. Good night, everyone!

8:05 pm - Nah, we'll stick around for the results to come in.

8:06 pm - And here's Richard's first comment, which pretty much sums things up so far:

RKB: I'm here. Not much to say.

8:07 pm - Good times.

8:08 pm - It's not just Romney's money that's sinking Santorum in Illinois and elsewhere, it's Santorum's disorganization. As CNN reports, Santorum doesn't even have delegates running in every Illinois district -- missing four of them. (Even Gingrich and Paul have delegates everywhere in the state.) "Since district delegates are directly chosen by voters, candidates must field a total of 54 delegates in the 18 districts in order to remain eligible for every delegate... [Santorum] failed to qualify in every district and will only be eligible for 44 delegates. He has no delegates running in the 4th, 5th, 7th and 13th congressional districts." Not that it matters all that much for the long run, but it's another reminder that Santorum just wasn't ready to run a truly competitive national campaign as a serious contender. Of course, he wasn't a serious contender until just before Iowa and so may be excused, perhaps, for failing to have the kind of extensive organization Romney has (remember: Santorum wasn't even on the ballot in Virginia), but his disadvantage in this regard is a major obstacle.

8:17 pm - No results yet.

8:25 pm - And. We. Are. Off. With results coming in mostly from Cook (Chicago) and Lake (north of Chicago) counties, but just 1% reporting overall, it's Romney up 54 to 29 over Santorum. Hoo-wah. (You can see the results here.)

8:29 pm - Nate Silver: "In Illinois, Santorum's Chance at Nomination Is Slipping Away." Clearly. This is pretty obvious stuff, though of course Silver brings his characteristically astute analysis to it. And the point, one the major networks, forever manufacturing drama, generally ignore (to the extent they even get it), is that "the nomination isn't all that close." Romney is well ahead, and Illinois will pad his lead significantly.

RKB: The news coverage really has the feel of the "beginning of the end" for Santorum's Cinderella ride. You know, it's been fun, but who are we kidding?

Watching Blitzer. I've never seen anyone get so excited saying absolutely nothing.

8:40 pm - How did Wolf get this gig, anyway? I can't remember.

RKB: I know Gingrich didn't campaign in Illinois, but it's still good to see him do so poorly. What an ass.

Erick Erickson just said on CNN that the Gingrich campaign doesn't really have a pulse at this point and that his people (some of them, anyway) seem to be urging him to get out.

8:42 pm - I'd like to thank Richard for suffering through network coverage so the rest of us don't have to.

RKB: Not that I spend a lot of time trying to figure out Fox News programming, but they're not really bothering to follow the Illinois primary, just doing the regular Bill O'Reilly schtick. I wonder why they're low-keying it?

8:45 pm - And there you go. CNN calls it for Romney. Just 42 minutes after we did.

RKB: Yeah, CNN projects a Romney win!!!!!!! Wooooooooo!!!!

Now it's just a matter of the margin of victory.

Can I go back to playing my Fender Strat now?

8:46 pm - Can't you multitask?

8:49 pm - And here's the patriot joining us (and, again, check out his longer analysis from earlier this evening):

tmcbpatriot: Boy, Romney wins Illinois. What a surprise!

tmcbpatriot: Joining this party late, but these results do not surprise me one bit. Good ol' Illinois. Tried and true. This primary is so dull I can't stand it. Is it over or are we going into summer with this crap?

RKB: Screamin' Ed Schultz has a panel discussing the Illinois primary on MSNBC in his regular 8-9 EST slot. Mostly they're talking about the GOP nomination like it's over as they begin to tee up the inevitable Romney-Obama match.

tmcbpatriot: What a trouncing! I wonder if Santorum will pretend to be surprised by this. Gingrich did well. Looks like the folks in Skokie came out to vote after all.

8:55 pm - It's bizarro election return night! Unlike in other contests (like Ohio, where Romney surged into the lead as votes came in late from Cleveland and other urban areas), results are coming in from Romney Country early in Illinois. Which is to say, Romney won't maintain this 27-point lead (55 to 28), but it could be a wider margin of victory than I thought.

tmcbpatriot: It's not all dull. Newt demands Obama apologize for DeNiro comment. I swear, you can't make this stuff up!

9:01 pm - I agree. This faux outrage from conservatives is ridiculous. Get a fucking sense of humor! All DeNiro said was, obviously joking: "Callista Gingrich. Karen Santorum. Ann Romney. Now do you really think our country is ready for a white first lady?" Newt called the remark "inexcusable" (which means it was apparently worse than anything and everything Newt himself has ever done). Even the White House (or at least the first lady's office) jumped in, calling the joke "inappropriate." Which is also ridiculous. It was a funny quip, relevant precisely because it spoke to America's racist past (however much Republicans may wish to deny that past) and, if to a lesser degree, present (which Republicans also deny).

tmcbpatriot: EXIT POLLS: 39% "HAVE RESERVATIONS" ABOUT THEIR CANDIDATE

Make it stop already! Who cares? Just put it out of its misery. Presidential races are too long in this country. Make them two months and be done with it. We are The United States of American Idol.

tmcbpatriot: I am impressed with the turnout here. Romney crossed the 100k threshold.

tmcbpatriot: I want to say something smart about this primary today but nothing comes to mind. Seriously, there is nothing more to say about any of this! At this point it is just a primaries drinking game. Thing is, though, nobody is getting drunk! You take a drink and then are sober by the time your guy gets another win.

9:31 pm - It's true, what else is there to say? Romney's lead is narrowing as results come in from the more rural areas of the state, but it's still 17 (50 to 33).

9:32 pm - Though I suppose we should ask the question we've been asking after every recent contest: Will Newt drop out, or what? He's currently in last with just 7 percent of the vote, behind Paul at 9. The writing has been on the wall, with neon lights flashing, for quite a while now. Can't he just end this madness? What can his reason possibly be for staying in?

9:34 pm - Ah, here's Richard with some comments on Romney's speech:

RKB: Romney is speaking. This man is such a fool and a lousy speaker. He's a small man. His speech is so petty. Even for those who buy his facile understanding of economics, there is nothing inspiring about this idiot. He makes my skin crawl.

Running a business has nothing to do with running the country. Totally different skill set. Someone might want to mention that to Romney.

9:36 pm - And more, getting right down to the essence of it:

RKB: It is inconceivable to me that any intelligent person, regardless of politics, would find Mitt Romney compelling.

What a pathetic fucking speech.

tmcbpatriot: You know, if Gingrich is willing to call out DeNiro for some comment, then that alone is reason why he should never be president. I mean, you are going to pick a fight with Bobby D? Fuggedaboutit!

tmcbpatriot: Damn! How many people voted in this thing? Romney is nearing 200k! Who knew that many people were that engaged? Gingrich is so used to getting so few votes he is telling everyone he is winning in Illinois. 

9:43 pm - Romney's lead is now 15. If you're Santorum, it's time to start talking about moral victories (and he was playing the expectations game in anticipation of this loss, hoping to build a possitive narrative out of defeat). If somehow he can pull to within ten, keeping Romney's victory in single digits... If Romney doesn't make it over 50 percent... yadda... yadda... yadda...

tmcbpatriot: The more I see of these four clowns the more they are staring to look like The Monkees. Rick is Davy, Mitt is Mike, Ron is Peter, and Newt, of course, is Mickey. C'mon, don't tell me you don't see it.

9:47 pm - And... 14! I'm really trying to make this interesting.

tmcbpatriot: Why is Newt still in this thing? Because he has a whole mess of books still to sell. I would not be surprised if he puts out another one before he drops out. He is not in this to win. He is in it to keep his name out there, to raise his speaking fees, to spend whatever money is left in his SuperPac. He is no dummy. He is a loathsome snake oil salesman. He is in it to sell as much snake oil as possible.

9:57 pm - Yes, good point. It's all about Newt Inc. But I wonder, if he stays in too long, won't he damage his brand? Unless he thinks that staying in helps Romney, and hence the party establishment, and so his brand, and his status as party "intellectual" who makes frequent apparances on Meet the Press, is secure.

tmcbpatriot: And yes, Mitt is a pitiful human being. His speeches are like listening to a powerpoint presentation. Just bullet points, by the book. Nothing inspirational. Nothing exciting. But then, that is Republicans. Find me one who made politics exciting and quotable? "I am not a crook" does not count.

9:59 pm - Well, you've got to give Reagan some credit for that. Certainly not the Bushes or Dole, or even McCain. Does Palin count?

10:01 pm - 12 points! It's the comeback of the century! Still a lot of votes from Cook (Chicago) and Sangamon (Springfield), though.

tmcbpatriot: Newt's brand is Newt. He works for no man but himself. He is a dog. A political dog. These are not nice people. They eat friends and family for lunch. Newt is already seen as a scoundrel in Republican circles so what has he got to lose? Besides, if Sarah Palin proved anything it is that Republicans will show up to see a real live moron any day of the week.

10:22 pm - 13 now. Wrong way. Looks like this might settle at 12.

tmcbpatriot: Okay. Raygun was a good talker, but he wasn't exciting. Give me one memorable exciting quote. "Tear down that wall"? I'll take Roger Waters saying it over Raygun any day. And Palin doesn't count for anything except being perhaps the most annoying Republican ever to torture us.

10:25 pm - 12 again. I think we're all fading.

10:32 pm - It's always a pleasure to do this, but, let's face it, this has been one boring night. Maybe because the outcome was obvious and the margin of victory hasn't been much of a surprise one way or the other. And so... now what?

Newt may or may not get out, but his support is so minimal it hardly matters anymore.

Rick will stay in, of course. He can't really spin this one the way he did Michigan and Ohio, but he can focus on Lousiana's primary on Saturday, one he may very well win, as well as the three contests on April 3, when he'll need to counterbalance expected Romney wins in Maryland and D.C. with a strong showing (i.e., a win, preferably by a decisive margin) in Wisconsin. Then there's a three-week gap until five contests on April 24, all of which may go Romney: New York and Pennsylvania, along with Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Pennsylvania is the possible exception, as it's Santorum's home state, but he'll have a tough time there as well.

Basically, it's over. We all know that. But with wins in Louisiana and Wisconsin and possibly Pennsylvania Santorum could at least keep his candidacy viable -- viable enough anyway to keep Romney from winning a majority of delegates ahead of the convention. And after April 24, assuming he's still in the race, Santorum could pick up speed with favorable contests in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia (May 8), Arkansas and Kentucky (May 22), and Texas (May 29).

But that's a long way off. It's possible he'll drop out before then. And even if he doesn't, it's getting clearer and clearer that Romney will be the nominee.

In a way, the calendar is both friend and enemy to Romney, though. It's a friend in that he should be able to win the April contests, including Pennsylvania (or at least come very close) and continue to pull away from Santorum, but it's an enemy in that the time between contests means the race dragging on and on into May, with Romney having to spend more and more money to stay on top for good.

tmcbpatriot: I tell ya, the most interesting thing about tonight in the turnout. Half a mil and counting? This has to be Newt's and Ron Paul's biggest tallies of the primary season.

tmcbpatriot: I have been fading since September.

tmcbpatriot: It is really pathetic that the media are going to say how Romney was on top of his game in Illinois, or that he outspent the other candidates, or that he is back on his game. It had nothing to do with it. Romney was going to win Illinois no matter what. All he had to do was show up. That was his accomplishment here, he showed up.

tmcbpatriot: "Newt Fires Back At 'Inexcusable' DeNiro Joke." Wow. These guys are really going to try to make a example of Robert DeNiro. Republicans really don't live on this planet with the rest of us.

10:51 pm - Still 12, now with 84% reporting. And Romney's running away with the delegates. And so I suppose the answer to the question posed in the title of this post is... yes. Romney spent a lot of money and remains a weak candidate who can't finish off even weaker opposition, but this is the sort of win he needed, especially after Alabama and Mississippi. It's a big win that is big enough for him to maintain his frontrunner and inevitable nominee status.

10:55 pm - Alright, I think we're just about done. We were able to make a lot out of not very much tonight, and it's been fun. We'll do this again for Louisiana on Saturday and then for Maryland, D.C., and Wisconsin on April 3.

11:03 pm - We'll be back tomorrow with a lot more election coverage and so much else. See you then.

Good night, everyone.

Why Romney wins Illinois today

By tmcbpatriot

(Ed. note: We'll be live-blogging the results of the Illinois Republican primary this evening, starting shortly, and the patriot will be joining us, but here, for now, is his take on why Romney will win. -- MJWS)

Spoiler alert! Stop now if you do not want to know how this ends. Although it is really not that exciting.

Mitt Romney is going to win the Illinois primary handily today. Write it down and then forget where you put the piece of paper you wrote it on because Illinois is simply not going to vote for anyone else. Sure, there will be no short supply of Santorum lovers and a few Ron Paul nuts. Gingrich might even manage to get a few votes as well. But this is the Midwest and Illinois is as "mid" as the west gets.

Here too is what you won't see: You won't see a repeat of last week's bumble-f**kkk in the southern racist enclaves of Alabama and Mississippi. No sir. No how. Illinois is much more straight-laced in its conservative creds than the South and Illinoisans always vote with their wallet in mind. Social issues? Please. Illinois is as corrupt as it gets. Illinoisans looking for a politician with moral convictions is like South Carolinians looking for a candidate who is sane. It is just impossible to find.

In addition to that, Illinois is also a pretty blue state. It voted for Obama in droves and has a huge black and Latino population. But for all its blue-state creds, Illinois has some fairly red ones as well. The state has no helmet law, smoking in bars was banned only after years of opposition, Chicago is one of the most racially segregated cities in the country, and guns run rampant on Chicago streets like it's some old-time western town. Chicago is also the home of the Chicago Merc, where workers gleefully taunted the Occupy folks last fall.

Point is, red or blue, no matter where you live in the state, anything can be yours for the right price. In other words, in Illinois the pocketbook rules, period! Chicago is also a real working town. It is not a place where people get too hung up on social issues like abortion, gays, porn, or contraception. Sure, you will get some of that in the burbs. But at the end of the day, Illinoisans are taxed so much and nickel-and-dimed to death so regularly that they vote only for whom they think will provide the most bang for their tax dollars.

Rick Santorum was in Rockville, Illinois yesterday and actually said out loud to the folks in attendance that "the issue in this race is not the economy." Talk about out of touch! This is a man who knows nothing about the state he is trying to win. Illinoisans are not dreamers. Nobody imagines a Republican president or any politician for that matter doing a darn thing about the rampant crime, the shootings, fixing the crappy public schools, or lowering their taxes at all. Illinoisans have had multiple opportunities to vote for a Republican and even when they do nothing ever changes.

For Rick Santorum even to consider that Illinois Republicans care at all about the over-reach of government proves he is out of his league on this one. Government over-reach in Illinois is what keeps the state going! Today's primary is not about principles or morals. Illinois politics is devoid of it. It is simply going to be about voting for the guy who seems the most sensible in terms of dollars and cents. In Illinois, it is the only thing that really matters. In Illinois, it is about the economy, stupid. And with that there is no viable alternative to Mitt Romney other than Mitt Romney. And that is how it will play out.

Now, for the record I want to emphasize that my prediction is in no way a vote for Romney, or any of the other Republican clowns at this or any time. I am only saying that Romney will win today and will go on to win the nomination. These are the cold hard facts. And just like with Illinois, the cold hard facts are something you simply cannot ignore.

Santorum plays the expectations game in Illinois

By Michael J.W. Stickings

UPDATE (7:21 pm): Well, I underestimated Romney's lead, and likely margin of victory, in Illinois. I said that a 10-point Romney win wasn't likely, but a new PPP poll has him up by 15.

Which is to say, the point I make in this post is magnified. A Santorum win in Illinois wouldn't just be a huge blow to Romney, it would be catastrophic (in political terms) -- or, in other words, a genuine game changer for Santorum. In that sense, Santorum may very well be right that a win in Illinois would "guarantee" him the nomination.

But what are the expectations now? I any defeat by less than 10 points a sort of moral victory for Santorum? Or, put another way, does Romney now need to win by 10-15 points, or even 15+ points, to make it seem as if he's really won? Because, of course, a win is never just a win when you're playing the expectations game.

Certainly a defeat by less than five would be a great showing for Santorum. But that appears unlikely. And in any event, the problem for Romney now isn't that Santorum can catch him but that he may not end up with a majority of delegates going into the convention. His other problem is that the calendar is against him from now until the end of April, a period during which there are too few contests for him to pull away for good. He'll win the nomination, yes, but this race isn't about to end anytime soon.

Meanwhile, Santorum just needs to hope that he gets enough of a turnout boost tomorrow to make it seem as if Romney has somehow underperformed. And that's certainly a possibility.

**********

I realize it's all about Illinois at the moment, what with that state's primary taking place tomorrow, but this is a bit much:

Rick Santorum on Saturday guaranteed that a win in the Illinois primary will result in his nomination as the Republican presidential nominee.

"This is a primary, and turnout is everything. You do your job, you do your job, then this is the pledge," Santorum said. "If we're able to come out of Illinois with a huge or surprise win, I guarantee you, I guarantee you that we will win this nomination."

Santorum isn't going to win Illinois, not with Romney set to do very well in and around Chicago. But that's just why he's saying this, trying to get his supporters, mostly in the more conservative south-of-Chicago part of the state, all fired up in hopes that high turnout could put him over the top.

And, yes, just imagine what a Santorum win in such a big state would do. I'm not sure it would guarantee him the nomination, but it would be a huge blow to Romney. (And, of course, what Santorum didn't say is that a loss in Illinois would hand Romney the nomination.)

All Santorum can do now is play this silly expectations game, knowing that the media will play right along with him. Everyone's expecting a Romney win. In a way, a Romney win by, say 5 or 6 points would be a ho-hum result. A Romney win by 10 would be pretty devastating for Santorum, but that isn't likely. But what if it's just 2 or 3? Then it would be one of those "moral" victories for Santorum, not much changing in delegate terms, or in the overall dynamic of the race, but Santorum (with the media's help) getting a boost even by losing, simply by exceeding the expectations he himself is setting.

Like I said, it's all very silly. But, then, so is this whole process of selecting presidential nominees.

Behind the Ad: Pro-Santorum ad goes after Romney in Illinois

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our "Behind the Ad" series.)

Who: The Red, White and Blue Fund, the Super PAC supporting Rick Santorum.

Where: Illinois.

What's going on: Rick Santorum's Super PAC is starting to run political ads in Illinois attacking Mitt Romney, part of a $310,000 ad buy in the state. Illinois holds their primary on Tuesday, February 20th.

The spot introduces voters to the "real Romney," the one who "raised job-killing taxes and fees," and "supported the Wall Street bailout putting America trillions of dollars in debt. It points to the Massachusetts health care law, which Romney signed, as the "blue print for Obamacare," ending with the statement that Rick Santorum is someone who can "create dynamic jobs and cut wasteful spending."

Romney's claim all along is that he is best positioned to improve the economy due to his business experience. Santorum is clearly trying to take on that perception by almost calling Romney a "tax and spend liberal" whose record on the economy is not what he says it is.

I'd say the ad plays fairly well to those who don't think Romney can be trusted, even on the one trick he'd like us to believe is his strong suit.

With days to go before the Illinois primary, Romney has a slight lead in a recent Chicago Tribune/WGN poll, but that could change. If Santorum manages to pull out a win in the state, things will get even tougher for Romney. Poor Mitt.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)