Behind the Ad: W. Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin responds to the NRA

By Richard K. Barry

(Another in our extensive Behind the Ad series.)

Who: Sen. Joe Manchin (D)

Where: West Virginia

What's going on: Manchin has a new 30 second spot in which he talks about being a lifelong member of the National Rifle Association but says that he isn't tied to them on every issue.

The Washington Post:

“I’m a lifetime NRA member, but I don’t walk in lockstep with the NRA’s Washington leadership, this administration or any interest group,” Manchin says in the commercial, which debuted Thursday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” Throughout the ad, Manchin is handling a gun.

Manchin and Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) introduced a measure on expanding background checks for those wishing to purchase guns, though the legislation failed in the Senate earlier in the year. This has made Manchin a target of the NRA.

 In the spot, Manchin tells viewers to tell the NRA to support expanded background checks.

 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Former funny man fights to be taken seriously

By Richard K. Barry

It is difficult to resist calling Sen. Al Franken a former funny man, though once upon a time (maybe in the era of Milton Berle) that is how we identified people who made others laugh for a living. Anyway, no one is laughing at Al now.

For a guy who barely squeaked into the Senate by 312 votes in 2008, he seems to have a pretty good lock on his job in the 2014 elections.

Associated Press:

Four years into his term, Franken barely figures into the GOP's calculations for trying to wrest control of the Senate from Democrats. Republicans don't consider him a top target for defeat, and they haven't found a strong challenger in the Democratic-leaning state.

Those who know say he has succeed by keeping his head down and doing the work, in essence, by avoiding the national spotlight. This can't have been easy for a guy who spent so much of his life on stage, but he has managed. He rarely talks to the press and has steadfastly refused to make use of his skill for comedy. 

"People have seen that I did what I said I would do. I came to Washington, I put my shoulder to the wheel and I did the work," Franken said in a recent interview with The Associated Press, expressing optimism that he'll be re-elected. He punted on the question of whether he'd seek a more prominent national voice in a second term, saying: "I'm more worried about what I'm working on tomorrow."

Having won by such a narrow margin in a three-way race in 2008, the GOP probably assumed Franken would be relatively easy to take down. And while they may still be saying he is beatable, it sounds like even they don't really believe that. As one indicator, last fall more than 50 percent of those polled liked the job Franken was doing.

So far, Franken has two definite Republican challengers: Mike McFadden, a businessman and political unknown; and Jim Abeler, an eight-term state representative who's never run for higher office. Another lawmaker, state Sen. Julianne Ortman, is also considering a bid.

Yes, well, get out the fly swatter.

Yet more proof that second acts in American lives are indeed possible.

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: Sen. Ayotte on background checks - Round II

By Richard K. Barry

Who: American Future Fund

Where: New Hampshire

What's going on: There is a back-and-forth going on between those who are critical of New Hampshire Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte's vote against the most recent failed Senate background check legislation and those who support her. Her critics, led by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's gun control group, produced an ad that responded to claims by Ayotte supporters that she had previously worked to strengthen background checks and was actually on the side of the angels.

They find that claim unconvincing.

What is most interesting about the ad by the American Future Fund, a conservative group, is that it doesn't really bother with any specifics, it simply vilifies Bloomberg for being a rich, pushy, big city type who is trying to tell the good people of New Hampshire what to think and do.

An earlier Bloomberg ad attacking Ayotte featured a Minnesota police chief who also served as a former chairman of the International Association of Chiefs of Police Firearms Committee.  Again, the conservative ad doesn't really address the specifics of this cops charges, but only puts up some other cop by the name of Richard Crate who is identified only as "New Hampshire law enforcement." Apparently he speaks for all cops in the state.

Again, no real substance, just an appeal to citizens most childish instinct not to let outsiders boss them around.

The closing line is "Don't let a New York billionaire use a Minnesota cop to tell New Hampshire what to think."

The funny things is, as The Hill points out, that Sen. Ayotte is not even up for reelection in 2016, but gun control advocates think they might be able to move her vote the next time this comes before the Senate.



(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: Conservative super-PAC attacks Sen. Mark Pryor on health care

By Richard K. Barry

Who: Senate Conservative Action

Where: Arkansas

What's going on: First Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) gets hit on gun control. Now he gets it on ObamaCare from the right.  In this ad, a group calling itself Senate Conservative Action slams Pryor for being the deciding vote on major health care legislation. The piece tees up a small businessman to say that Americans can either have health care or they can have jobs,  but they can't have both. 

The Hill:

The organization often backs conservatives in GOP Senate primaries, but it and the Club for Growth have been spending much of their early money ripping Pryor. That money seems designed to entice Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) to jump in the race, which Cotton is expected to do

Pryor is mighty vulnerable in 2014 and everybody knows it. From the left it's criticism for not supporting background checks. From the right it's ObamaCare. Funny things is that both of these attacks will hurt him and help him, we just don't know how things will balance out come election day.



(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Michelle Nunn gets ready in Georgia

By Richard K. Barry

The Hill is reporting that businesswomen Michelle Nunn is actively preparing to run for the U.S. Senate from Georgia as a Democrat. They say an
announcement is expected early this summer. 

Nunn, who currently runs a charity, is shaping up as the Democrats' best bet to take Sen. Saxby Chambliss's seat. Chambliss announced he would retire at the end of the term. 

The Hill:

“We'd be very excited to have her in the race. We expect a decision in the next few weeks,” said Georgia Democratic Party Chairman Mike Berlon. “Michelle is going to present a brilliant contrast to anybody the Republicans have running in the spring … She's a female, a proven administrator from a good family. We believe she can clearly win. She has all the tools to win this race in the general election.”

The "good family" reference is in regard to the fact that she is daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA) and she is the CEO of Points of Light, the world's largest organization dedicated to volunteer service. 

The Hill says that Democrats are hopeful that Georgia could be a rare pick-up opportunity in a year when they are mostly going to be playing defence. If, and we've seen this story before, a crowded GOP field produces a flawed candidate, anything is possible. 

Republicans already in the race include Reps. Paul Broun (R-Ga.), Phil Gingrey (R-Ga.), and Jack Kingston (R-Ga.), and former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel (R).

Businessman David Perdue (R), the cousin of former Gov. Sonny Perdue (R), is also expected to run, and businesswoman Kelly Loeffler, who owns the WNBA’s Atlanta Dream, is also said to be looking at a bid.

For the record, Mitt Romney took Georgia in 2012 by a margin of 53.3 to 45.5  percent.

My guess is that a lot of things would have to break the right way. 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Breeding distrust

By Mustang Bobby

John Brennan will go to Capitol Hill today for his confirmation hearing as the next director of the CIA. Thanks to the news about the memo on drones, it should be an interesting hearing.

Whether or not you think killing people — Americans or not — by remote control is a good or a bad idea, or whether you think the level of secrecy around it insulates us as a people from the harsh things our government does in our name, the part that gets to a lot of people — myself included — is that the attitude of the people who knew about it turns out to be “Trust us.” As anyone who has grown up beyond the age of ten knows, when you have to tell someone to trust you, you shouldn’t.

I don’t buy into all the conspiracy nutsery (see below), but I also believe trust is binary: you either have it or you don’t, and winning it back is not just a matter of “Well, we mislead you on this, but the next time, trust us.” It becomes a loop.

Charlie Pierce gets to it.

It is now beyond cliche to observe that government secrecy “breeds distrust” in our institutions. What is never mentioned is that, if you breed enough distrust in the institutions — or, more to the point, if the activities of the institutions breed distrust in themselves — the trust people once placed in them has to gosomewhere. And, generally, it goes into dreams and schemes and circus clowns that the people dream up themselves. The very real use of drones, and the very real possibility that they will be in general use in domestic law-enforcement before very long, because we’re more than already halfway there now, already have combined to set the paranoid imagination fully a’bloom. Government secrecy and deception blurs the line between genuine fears over the decline of civil liberties, and the wild-assed fantasies of the black-helicopter crowd. If you want to see the true destructive power of Droneworld in this country, look deeply into the Id of the democratic political imagination. There are angry, feral creatures in there, stalking the ruins, howling for blood.

There are those who will never trust the government or any elected official. They fully believe that once someone becomes a public servant they are secretly led into the cabal and become “one of them.” They’re the ones who start looking for pods in the basement. It’s when the rest of us start thinking that there might be something to it that we get into real trouble.

(Cross-posted at Bark Bark Woof Woof.)

New poll puts Rep. Steve King at a disadvantage in Iowa Senate race

By Richard K. Barry

It's goods news and bad news for hyper-conservative Rep. Steve King (R) who is considering a run in 2014 in Iowa to replace retiring Democratic Senator Tom Harkin. On the one hand, King is well out ahead of any potential GOP challenger for the Republican nomination. On the other hand, he is well back of any Democratic candidate who was tested in a recent Public Policy Polling survey. 

As PPP writes:

We tested three different iterations of the GOP candidate field for next year, and King leads by at least 19 points in each one of them. In a four candidate scenario he gets 41% to 22% for Tom Latham, 10% for Kim Reynolds, and 9% for Bob Vander Plaats. In a three candidate field that doesn't include Reynolds he gets 42% to 23% for Latham and 19% for Vander Plaats. And in a head to head with Latham he leads 50/27.

But, as they continue:

The problem for Republicans is that King would start out at a significant disadvantage in a general election. The most likely Democratic candidate, Bruce Braley, would start out 11 points ahead of King at 49/38. The three other Democrats we looked at lead King by substantial margins as well- Tom Vilsack would lead King 49/39, Chet Culver would lead 48/41, and Dave Loebsack would lead 47/40.

Make no mistake, Steve King is one of those hardcore crazy Republicans who appeals to the base but will have a hell of time in the general election, just the kind of senate candidate that scares the hell out of people like Karl Rove, the Conservative Victory Project,  and other Republicans interested in taking back the Senate. 

How sweet would it be to add King's name to the list that includes O'Donnell, Angle, Mourdock, and Akin?

Tagged out

By Mustang Bobby

Via TPM:

Tagg Romney, son of former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, said on Monday that he has decided against a run for Secretary of State John Kerry’s Senate seat in Massachusetts.

[...]

“I have been humbled by the outreach I received this weekend encouraging me to become a candidate for the US Senate. I love my home state and admit it would be an honor to represent the citizens of our great Commonwealth. However, I am currently committed to my business and to spending as much time as I can with my wife and children. The timing is not right for me, but I am hopeful that the people of Massachusetts will select someone of great integrity, vision, and compassion as our next US Senator.”

I guess the trees weren’t the right height this time.

(Cross-posted at Bark Bark Woof Woof.)

If I were Hagel

By Frank Moraes

I wouldn't be able to do what he's doing. It is clear that he is extremely well qualified for the job of Secretary of Defense. But all of the Republican senatorial carping at him was too much. The big moment in the hearing was when John McCain wanted a "yes or no" answer to whether Hagel was wrong to predict that the surge in Iraq would be the biggest foreign policy mistake since the Vietnam War. Hagel wouldn't answer because he said it was more complicated than that.

Fair enough, but my answer would have been different. "What does my prediction about one part of the Iraq War have to do with anything? I may have been wrong about the surge, but I wasn't nearly so wrong as when I originally supported the war. The problem with you is that you refuse to admit that the Iraq War was wrong, that tens of thousands of people died for no good reason. So I suppose the surge not being a total fiasco is the one thing you are hanging onto; you were wrong about everything else. You know, I was the co-chair of your 2000 campaign and you treat me like this? You have no honor, senator. None at all." Of course, what I would have said would have been more "colorful," if you know what I mean.

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Scott Brown passes on another Senate run

By Richard K. Barry

In an announcement initially made via a text message to the Boston Globe, former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown said that he would not seek the open seat left by the departure of John Kerry. It seems that major news announcements can now be made with words like: "U R the first to know. Not running."

His stated reason for not jumping in seems to have more to do with the fact that he so recently ran full-out campaigns in 2010 and 2012, and, if successful in the June special election, would have to gear up for a fourth campaign in 2014 to win a full term. 

This is an aspect of electoral political sometimes lost on the general public: campaigns are a significant commitment by the candidates and can take a superhuman effort to survive. The thought of four major campaigns in four years would be incredible for anyone, even a relatively young and robust young man like Brown.

In his own words, as reported by the Boston Globe:

“I was not at all certain that a third Senate campaign in less than four years, and the prospect of returning to a Congress even more partisan than the one I left, was really the best way for me to continue in public service at this time,” Brown said in a statement. “And I know it’s not the only way for me to advance the ideals and causes that matter most to me.” 

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