Saturday, March 09, 2013

Enjoy the global warming jobs report

By Frank Moraes


Have you noticed something about winter? Every year we have really good jobs reports. People start talking about an economic recovery. And it somehow always evaporates by the time spring is in full swing. That's what I thought when I saw that in February we created 236,000 net new jobs. Ain't that what we saw last year?

Alas, yes. As Dean Baker pointed out this morning, last year we created 271,000 net new jobs in February. The year before that it was just less than 200,000.

I think we are seeing global warming in our economic data. The reason that the BLS has to constantly revise its jobs reports is that they create seasonally adjusted numbers. There are, for example, more construction jobs in the summer when the weather is good. But our winters have been quite mild the last few years. And this year, over 20% of February's new jobs were in construction. If we remove these jobs (which isn't valid, but it gives an idea), the number would be 188,000 net new jobs—much closer to the 160,000 jobs that were expected.


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Saturday, May 12, 2012

Bad news for the GOP, more signs of economic recovery

By Richard K. Barry

L.S. Lowry: "Going to Work"

Bloomberg reported on Thursday that the U.S. auto sector is looking strong:
U.S. auto sales are on pace for the best showing since 2007 and a third straight year of at least 10 percent gains, only the fourth such streak since the Great Depression, as more-confident buyers return to showrooms.

They add that "automakers are adding overnight shifts and cutting workers' vacations to meet demand."

Pent-up demand, an improving economy and loosening credit has spurred the better-than-estimated auto sales and helped General Motors, Ford Motor Company, and Chrysler Group LLC to first quarter profits that beat analysts’ forecasts even while deliveries fell in Europe.

On a related note, CNBC reports that consumer sentiment is at a four year high in early May as "Americans remained upbeat about the job market."
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary May reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment improved to 77.8 from 76.4 in April, topping forecasts for 76.2. It was the highest level since January 2008.
Despite the recent slowdown in job growth, nearly twice as many consumers reported hearing about new job gains than said they had heard about recent job losses, the survey said.

In fairness, the survey director, Richard Curtis, suggests that either we will see more positive numbers on the labour market or people are getting too excited too soon. Hedging his bets, Curtis adds that the truth will probably be somewhere in the middle.

I don't want to oversell signs of a recovery, we have a long way to go, but good news is good news and deserves to be mentioned. I realize this will not make the Republicans happy, although some of these geniuses have actually suggested that any improvement should be chalked up to the expectation among voters that the Obama Administration is coming to an end. Nice try, guys.

I recognize that many people think the fall election will a referendum on the state of the economy, at least the GOP hopes so. I suppose if things really go in a bad direction, that will be bad for the Dems. But, if trends continue, it's getting very hard to see how Romney gets any traction at all.

Keep that good economic news rolling in.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

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Sunday, September 05, 2010

Truth in Comics

By Creature


If it's Sunday, it's Truth in Comics.

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Friday, March 26, 2010

Personal income drops in 2009

By Creature

Will the Bush hangover ever end.

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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Spending freeze

By Creature

Sure I'm disappointed, but really I'm too tired to fight on this one. This surgical freeze seems more like politics than anything else. Why they had to play politics to the right is beyond me. I'm guessing this bone was to give Evan Bayh and the Blue Dogs something to run on and maybe bring some independents back into the fold. I only wish the president would throw a bone to the left once and a while. DADT, anyone?

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Monday, January 25, 2010

Quote of the Day: Andrew Sullivan on "Big Babyism"

By Creature

"What you have here is big babyism. After the worst downturn in memory, bequeathed a massive and growing debt, two failing wars, a financial sector threatening to bring down the entire economy, Obama has betrayed this person by preventing a Second Great Depression." -- Andrew Sullivan, in response to an independent's absurd Obama complaint (which -- thanks to a feckless messaging machine -- has become conventional wisdom).

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Thursday, June 04, 2009

Less is something and more is nothing

OR: What is it with hiring managers and the "overqualified" label?

By Boatboy

As the US economy continues to circle the drain, an (apparently) increasing number of people are running into the curse of actually being able to do their jobs. There are articles in The Atlantic, The Wall Street Journal, and other publications discussing how skilled professionals are editing their resumes and discussions of their experience and training in order to appear more appropriate for the lower-paying jobs that are increasingly the best opportunities available.

I recall a similar trend, now a decade or so old, when the dot-com bubble burst and it seemed all of Silicon Valley got laid off at once. The same effect was visible at the time: former CIOs were dumbing down their resumes to get LAN admin jobs. This time around, though, the trend seems universal when discussing anyone with more than five years' history in the workplace, regardless of profession.

The articles all discuss editing one's resume or CV to minimise the appearance of experience and qualifications. More than a few sections, and several comments, discuss removing some dates and some durations to combat ageism as well:

Too much of a good thing is wonderful, said Mae West. But that's not how hiring managers see it. Relevant work experience, advanced degrees and credentials - while prerequisites for many finance jobs - can disqualify as well as qualify. If a candidate previously held a role at a higher level than the one she's seeking, or her education or certifications exceed a position's stated requirements, she's unlikely to pass the initial software-driven screen most employers apply before even looking at an incoming résumé.

Moreover, many employers blithely use the word "overqualified" as a barely concealed synonym for "too old." That's the evident meaning when a hiring manager or HR person says an opening is "too junior for you," when you know it pays four times what you made in your last job. (This happened to me a few times.)

Personally, this sort of rescaling one's experience seems at once dishonest and pointless. Dishonest in that if one is prepared to discount one's own experience and effort to achieve what one has achieved then the situations employers fear are more likely to be manifested than if one is honest about one's history and willing to take a perceived step backward. Pointless, in turn, in that so many of the current review processes require listing years of experience with particular tools or procedures as part of the screening process, and so many are willing to follow up with reference checks and other screening methods, that simplifying one's resume without conveniently "forgetting" about what one edits out will only exacerbate the hiring body's concerns - and may well show up the potential dishonesty in the resume by inadvertently referring to information edited out of the documents.

I'm also more than a little disappointed in the presumption that overqualification is a valid cause for disqualification. Unless there is a serious miscommunication between the candidate and the hiring/screening party at the outset, then the disparity between the job requirements and the offered experience and skill set is a known quantity well in advance of the point where overqualification even gets suggested. If it isn't an issue for the candidate by then, then it shouldn't be for the interviewer.

At the same time, there is the problem that one needs a paycheck in this society. And the discussions with recruiters and hiring managers on the subject tell a no-win tale:

In the past eight months, Jamaica Eilbes, an information-technology recruiter for Milwaukee employment agency Manpower, has had to weed out more overqualified résumés than usual from the stacks that cross her desk each day. "I'd never feel comfortable putting a really high-level candidate into a lower level position," says Ms. Eilbes, who recruits for Manpower and other clients. "We don't want to take you on if we think you are going to jump ship."

But in recent months, Ms. Eilbes has seen more master's and doctoral degrees at the bottom of résumés instead of at the top. She's also seen candidates omitting or trimming job descriptions that showed they had substantial years of work experience. Résumés on which job descriptions taper off as they progress down the page raise Ms. Eilbes's suspicions. "How do I know I can trust them later down the road if there's something on their résumé they decided to take off so they could have a better chance at getting that job?" she says.

And then there's this gem:

In some cases, job seekers are being told by hiring agencies to tone down their résumés if they want to get hired. When Bridget Lee, 29, moved to New York from Shanghai eight months ago and put her application in at three temporary agencies, she was told to play down her work experience before they would send her résumé to potential clients. The temp-agency version of her résumé changed titles like "manager" and "freelance trend researcher" to "staff" and "office support" and omitted entirely her title as partner of a small marketing agency. "It's been a lesson for how I present myself," Ms. Lee says.

So if you're overqualified, you'll be bored and unlikely to stay in the position. But if you edit your docs to sound less overqualified, then you're lying to the hiring party and can't be trusted. Oh, and by the way that distrust comes from your doing what we told you to do, or from our doing it ourselves on your behalf.

For me, though, the single most infuriating perspective on the matter comes from The Atlantic's own Daniel Indiviglio:

This is alarming news for the U.S. economy. If job seekers are accepting positions at lower levels than their experience should dictate, then their talent and experience is not being fully utilized. That, in turn, means economic growth will be stunted. For growth to be maximized, all workers should be making full use of their capabilities.

How much will this harm growth? It depends on how long it takes for the economy to begin to expand at a rapid pace. Once employment returns to the 95% threshold, these job seekers can begin trading up and returning to positions for which their experience is more suited. That is, of course, if their résumé is not tarnished permanently by spending several years in a position that is a step back on their career path.

Those of us currently looking for work aren't really all that concerned about how fast we can spring back: we're worried about making ends meet now. And we'd much rather be underutilized than unutilized, since as long as we can work, economic growth, however stunted, will still be greater for the US and for ourselves than if we all sit on our duffs (waiting for the job we aren't overqualified for) drawing unemployment and starving to death.

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Wednesday, April 29, 2009

6.1

By Creature

That's the percent decline in GDP for the first quarter of this year. It's a "worse-than-expected" drop as "sharp cutbacks by businesses and the biggest drop in U.S. exports in 40 years overwhelmed a rebound in consumer spending." So while consumers stepped up to the plate and spent some cash, this drop is mainly the result of business cutbacks. Maybe we can take comfort in the consumer confidence, spending half of this equation, but until the business world stops retrenching we've got a long way to go (especially on the unemployment front). Ugh.

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Friday, April 24, 2009

Mortgages and bankruptcy reform

By Creature

The NYT editorial board looks for GOP ponies in the Senate:

Republican senators need to understand that a vote against this reform is a vote against economic recovery.

This is the party that introduced spending freezes and more tax cuts as their solution to the greatest recession in memory and now the NYT wants them to come around. Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

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Monday, April 13, 2009

71

By Creature

That's the percentage of American people who "have a great deal or a fair amount of confidence in President Obama to do or recommend the right thing for the economy." Most striking here is that 68% of Independents are on board this Obama confidence train. So, now can we lay to rest the disingenuous Beltway meme that Obama is the most polarizing president ever? As Greg Sargent notes, the only polarization happening in America right now "continues to be driven largely by increasing Republican isolation." If only that Republican isolation would translate into less media time, then we'd be making progress.

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Thursday, April 09, 2009

I See London, I See France ...

By J. Thomas Duffy

Now we all see Mr. Andrea Mitchell's underpants ...

News, in brief, so to speak ...

From Sam Stein;
As chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan was known for using quirky, proletariat metrics to judge the temperature of the economy. The most famous of these, as recounted by NPR's Robert Krulwich in January 2008, were the sales of men's underwear. If the economic scales dipped even the slightest, Greenspan reasoned, it was as sure a sign as any that people were truly feeling the pinch.

"If you look at sales of male underpants it's just pretty much a flat line, it hardly ever changes," Krulwich recounted after the publishing of Greenspan's book, "The Age Of Turbulence." "But on those few occasions where it dips that means that men are so pinched that they are deciding not to replace underpants. And [Greenspan] said 'that is almost always a prescient, forward impression that here comes trouble.'"

Well, here comes trouble.

Yeah, trouble alright, especially when it comes to Greenspan.

He all but claimed he was on intravenous-delivered Ambien, saying he was "mystified" by the Sub Prime meltdown.

Stein reports that there is a 2.3% drop expected in the sale of Mens underwear products for 2009

I hope this doesn't mean we have to look forward to bailing out the underwear industry.

That, certainly, would be a cringe-inducing press conference.

For the good news;
Men's underwear is a replenishment item. If you see a dip in the market it is because of the economy. But over a longer-term period it will even out. They tend to be later going into the recession and earlier coming back... Men certainly aren't wearing underwear less frequently than before."

Phew!

Bonus Riffs

James Joyner: Greenspan’s Underpants

Digby: Boxers Or Briefs




(Cross Posted at The Garlic)

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