As Republicans stick their heads even further up their asses, anthropogenic global warming continues to wreak havoc, with global catastrophe likely inevitable

By Michael J.W. Stickings

From the Times:

A large section of the mighty West Antarctica ice sheet has begun falling apart and its continued melting now appears to be unstoppable, two groups of scientists reported on Monday. If the findings hold up, they suggest that the melting could destabilize neighboring parts of the ice sheet and a rise in sea level of 10 feet or more may be unavoidable in coming centuries.

Global warming caused by the human-driven release of greenhouse gases has helped to destabilize the ice sheet, though other factors may also be involved, the scientists said.

The rise of the sea is likely to continue to be relatively slow for the rest of the 21st century, the scientists added, but in the more distant future it may accelerate markedly, potentially throwing society into crisis.

"This is really happening," Thomas P. Wagner, who runs NASA's programs on polar ice and helped oversee some of the research, said in an interview. "There's nothing to stop it now. But you are still limited by the physics of how fast the ice can flow."

Note here, once again, how scientific research produces not inflammatory polemics but cautious, nuanced conclusions and sober, reasoned projections -- this is science.

In contrast, the head-up-the-ass denialism that governs the Republican Party, and pretty much the entirety of American conservatism today, with respect anthropogenic global warming in particular but also with respect to science in general, is rooted in ideology, igorance, and bias, much of it theocratic.

But the latter, given America's corrupted two-party system and much of the country enthusiastically basking in abject ignorance and bias, is politically powerful enough to paralyze the U.S. from doing anything to respond to a mammoth crisis despite almost the entire scientific community reaching the same conclusions about global warming.

And that's not about to change anytime soon, what with Republicans pushing their heads further up their asses, not least to appeal to a base deeply rooted in various forms of reality-denialism. (Marco Rubio made the latest stupid comments, but he's the rule, not the exception.) Which only makes global catastrophe even more likely, and perhaps even inevitable. It's really just a matter of when.

Antarctic melt

By Michael J.W. Stickings

The Antarctic ice sheet, which covers about 98 percent of Antarctica, contains about 90 percent of the world's total ice mass and about 61 percent of the world's total fresh water. It is estimated that global sea levels would rise about 60 meters were it to melt completely.

And it is melting. And melting quickly, according to an important new study:

One of the biggest worries about global warming has been its potential to affect the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet, a vast storehouse of frozen water that would inundate the world's coastal regions if it were to melt because of a warming climate.

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[A] new study released [yesterday], based on some of the most extensive measurements to date of the continent's ice mass, presents a worrisome development: Antarctica's ice sheet is shrinking, at a rate that increased dramatically from 1996 to 2006.

"Over the time period of our survey, the ice sheet as a whole was certainly losing mass, and the mass loss increased by 75 per cent in 10 years," the study said.

The study was conducted by the Radar Science and Engineering Section of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. One of the scientists involved in the study, Dr. Eric Rignot, offered this explanation: "I see [global warming] as the main driver for the change in ice mass. And this means that we are not in a natural cycle but in something that is related to global warming or global climate change, whichever you want to call it."

There has been some disagreement in scientific circles with respect to the Antarctic ice sheet. While there is broad agreement that the Greenland ice sheet is melting, "there has been more uncertainty over the fate of the larger stores of ice on Antarctica," with some researchers suggesting that increased precipitation could actually increase the size of the ice sheet over time. This new study offers evidence against that. Dr. Rignot: "The concept that global warming will increase precipitation in Antarctica and mitigate sea level rise is a lullaby. Our story shows that the main driver for the mass balance is the rate of glacier flow to the sea, not the precipitation rate because other studies already showed recently that the precipitation rate has not changed significantly."

In other words, the results of this study show that the Antarctic ice sheet is melting and that the rate of melting has increased in recent years. A consensus could emerge around these findings, a consensus that could focus greater attention not just on the effects of global warming on Antarctica but on efforts to combat global warming generally. The possibility of a significant, and devastating, rise in global sea levels, backed up by solid and essentially incontrovertible evidence resulting from extensive scientific research, should be enough to stimulate broad-based action. The problem is, it may not matter what the scientists say or recommend. Even if personal and political ignorance and negligence can ever be overcome to the extent that effective action can be taken, the will to act may come too late to hold off what is increasingly looking like the inevitable.

Still, this seems to have been a worthwhile and exceptionally valuable study. If nothing else, it tells us that the situation is even bleaker than we had previously thought.

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Update: For more, see WaPo.