The "Oh, crap" moments of the 2012 campaign

By Richard K. Barry

Just to prove politics can be fun, First Read asked some campaign insiders from the Romney and Obama sides about their "Oh, crap" moments of the 2012 campaign:

Eric Fehrnstrom of the Romney campaign answered Gingrich winning South Carolina; Beth Myers of the Romney camp said it was Romney's three-state loss to Santorum (on Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri); Romney strategist Stuart Stevens said it was the close primary race in Michigan; Obama campaign manager Jim Messina said it was their worry that Romney might wrap up the nomination after the New Hampshire primary.

I might have thought Eric Ferhnstrom would have said his "Oh, crap" moment was when he realized he actually used the Etch-A-Sketch imagery to describe how Romney would supposedly pivot away from radical conservatism after he got the nomination.  And I can't believe no one from the Romney campaign cited the first time they saw the 47 percent video. 

As for Obama's crew, I think maybe their moment was really when they realized their candidate forgot to show up for the first debate. That was mine.

In more general terms, Republicans across the country must have had their collective moment when they surveyed the stage at any one of the GOP nomination debates seeing Gingrich, Paul, Bachmann, Santorum, Cain, Perry, and Romney, and thinking, "this is the best we can do? -- oh, crap."

Federal disaster relief

By Mustang Bobby

For those of you about to face the brunt of Hurricane Sandy, I hope you come through it with as little loss as possible, and I hope you keep safe and dry. Having been through my share of hurricanes — the last one seven years ago this week — I can only say that all of the warnings and preparations are really necessary, and you will be very glad to have the good folks at FEMA to help get things back to normal after the storm.

By the way, be glad that we have an administration in office that actually cares about getting federal disaster relief out to the states and the citizens. It could be worse:


It's interesting that after a hurricane or some other natural disaster, everyone is all in favor of as much federal aid that they can get, no matter what it costs.

Via JMG.

(Cross-posted at Bark Bark Woof Woof.)

Big day for elections on June 5

By Richard K. Barry

Tomorrow is a big day for political junkies with five of the remaining six presidential primaries scheduled: California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. (Utah goes on June 26, if you were wondering). Of course, the match-up for the presidency is set, but a number of other very important races are to be decided, which, as Daily Kos points out, will select 73 House and four Senate nominees.

Senate primaries are in California, Montana, New Mexico, and New Jersey.

In Montana, Jon Tester, Democratic incumbent Senator, will be taking on Republican challenger Denny Rehberg in the fall, though they'll have to go through the motions on Tuesday. In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez is running unopposed for the nomination. There is a four-way race to see which Republican, probably, gets to lose to Menendez in November. 

Give 'em hell, Dianne!

California has an interesting new process to determine Senate candidates, called a "blanket primary," which works like this:

In the primary election on June 5, voters may vote for any candidate listed, or write-in any other candidate, regardless of the candidate's party affiliation. The top two finishers — from all parties combined — will advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate manages to receive a majority of the votes cast in the June primary.

It would appear that incumbent Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein is all but certain to make it through the primary and quite likely the general. Recent polling has Feinstein at 51% for the primary with none of the other 24 with more than 2%. Because I know you care, crazy birther Orly Taitz is one of the challengers. It's true that 30% are undecided, but I doubt that will matter.

Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman is not running for re-election in New Mexico. The Republican candidates are Greg Sowards and Heather Wilson, and the Democratic candidates are Hector Balderas and Rep. Martin Heinrich.

For what it's worth, there seems to be a consensus from pollsters that California's Senate seat is a safe hold for Democrats in November, New Jersey's is a likely Democratic hold, and New Mexico's is anywhere from "leans Democratic" to a toss-up, while everyone thinks Montana is a toss-up.

In addition to California, Montana, New Mexico, and New Jersey, Iowa and South Dakota have U.S. House of Representatives primaries on June 5. I won't take on the task of going through all of those at the moment.

And then there's the election in Wisconsin:

Two statewide elections and four state senate elections will determine the balance of power in what arguably has been the epicenter of the Republican revolution that was visited upon the country after the 2010 elections. Democrats are working hard to end the political career of one of the most visible figures of that revolution, while Republicans are expending tremendous energy in preserving his career.

There's a lot going on. Just because we know what the top of the ticket looks like doesn't mean there isn't reason to tune in.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)