Sen. Lindsey Graham: Yet another Republican wants in

By Richard K. Barry

It must really gall some of the older political hands in Washington to see so many newbies run for the GOP presidential nomination. After all, press is currency in politics and with all the writing and talking about Cruz, Rubio, Paul, et. al., there is little time to cover anyone else.

A guy like South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham must really be feeling left out, but not, perhaps, for long as we now hear Graham saying "his decision on whether he'll run for president depends on whether he can raise enough money, but he said there's a '91 percent' chance he will."

"If I can raise the money, I'll do it," he said on "Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace." He added, "I think I got a good message, I think I've been more right than wrong on foreign policy. I've criticized the president for leading from behind, being weak and indecisive. I've been a problem solver in Washington, and I think I've got something to offer the party in Washington."

At the moment, polls show Graham running behind a number of major contenders in his home state with one poll even showing 55 percent of South Carolina voters wouldn't vote for him for president.

But, you know, the only poll that counts in on Election Day.

Notably, Graham holds some fairly radical views for a Republican, like a willingness to raise some taxes and a belief that climate change is real, though he's a red-blooded American when it comes to believing the U.S. should kick ass anywhere around the world when the thought occurs.

Apparently Graham will let us know one way or the other in May.

Can't wait.

Stupidest Shithole in America: Pickens County, South Carolina

By Michael J.W. Stickings

(We haven't done one of these in months. Needless to say, though, there are many, many shitholes all across America -- like Nelson, Georgia; Mississippi; Dietrich, Idaho; and Burkesville, Kentucky -- so let's get back to it.)

Sorry, people of Pickens County, South Carolina. Whether you're part of the problem or not, it's your sheriff who gets you on the map this time:

Rick Clark, the sheriff of Pickens County, S.C., vowed on Friday to defy President Obama's order that U.S. flags be lowered to half staff in honor of deceased South African leader Nelson Mandela.

Clark made his promise in a Facebook post to keep flying the flag at the Pickens County Sheriff's Office at full height.

"I usually don't post political items, but today is different. I received this notification today, 'As a mark of respect for the memory of Nelson Mandela, the President orders that the flag of the United States be flown at half-staff effective immediately until sunset, December 9, 2013,'" Clark wrote. "Nelson Mandela did great things for his country and was a brave man but he was not an AMERICAN!!! The flag should be lowered at our Embassy in S. Africa, but not here."

Well, at least the guy's not explicitly anti-Mandela, at least not publicly, but his excuse is still incredibly stupid. The U.S. has lowered its flags for non-Americans before, and I think it's fair to say that Mandela was more than "just" a South African. And of course it doesn't help matters that this is happening in the South, where, you know, slavery, Jim Crow, etc., etc.

It looks like there's some beautiful country down your way, Pickensians, or whatever you're called, but some of your humanfolk leave rather a lot to be desired.

(Cue banjo.)

Would it be so bad if Mark Sanford continued to be a national punchline?

By Richard K. Barry

If Mark Sanford does win the special House election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District, and he might do that, what would it mean? Not very much. In fact, if Colbert Busch wins, it won't mean very much either.

If Sanford pulls it out, Democrats can comfort themselves with the notion that it is a very red district in a very red state. If Colbert Busch wins, Republicans can say, with good reason, that their candidate was fatally flawed.

The more interesting question may be, is winning that good for the GOP?

As The Week puts it:

Losing... might not be so bad for Democrats. Sure, a defeat would mean "a bit of short-term pain" for the party, says Chris Cillizza and Sean Sullivan in The Washington Post, but there's potential for some long-term gain. "Sanford is damaged goods." First, he acknowledged in 2009 that he went AWOL from his job to visit his mistress in Argentina, while claiming he was "hiking the Appalachian Trail." Then, more recently, he was accused of trespassing in his ex-wife's house to watch the Super Bowl with one of his four sons. This stuff has made Sanford a national punchline.

Not only, they say, would the late-night talk show jokes start again, but "every GOPer in the House and Senate will be asked whether they support Sanford and what they think of serving with him."

The GOP has a difficult enough time with women voters, as we all know. This guy could win the election, but having someone with his profile and his history in the House Republican Conference may not be the best outcome for the party.

And, on top of that, one would have to think Colbert Busch would be hard pressed to retain the seat against almost anyone else in 2014. If a Republican is likely to occupy the seat in the longer term, Democrats should want it to be this guy.

Let the GOP be known as the "party of men who leave their wives for younger women."

Having said that, I'd prefer to win, but losing has its upside.

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: Elizabeth Colbert Busch's final push

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.) 

Who: The Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) campaign.

Where: South Carolina's First Congressional District.

What's going on: In this ad, Colbert Busch talks about the need for a balanced budget amendment and a ban on special interest earmarks. She also pledges to cut her own pay by ten percent. It is, after all, a red state. She has to make fiscally conservative noises.

With the election a day away, Colbert Busch has been endorsed by the biggest newspaper in the district:

The Charleston (S.C.) Post And Courier endorsed Colbert Busch on Sunday, lauding her as "A new leader for the Lowcountry." Her "resolve to reach across the aisle" would serve South Carolina well on local and national platforms, the paper wrote.

A survey by Public Policy Polling on April 22 had Colbert Busch ahead by nine points, but the GOP-leaning Red Racing Horses had the two candidates tied as of Thursday.

It does appear that it will be close between Colbert Busch and former Republican Gov. Mark Sanford. This one probably is too close to call and may depend on how many conservative women are so disgusted by Sanford that they stay home tomorrow. 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: Mark Sanford says, "don't look here, look there"

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.) 

Who: The Mark Sanford campaign.

Where: South Carolina's First Congressional District

What's going on: With the South Carolina House special election only days away, it seems that former Gov. Mark Sanford is taking a different approach. In a new ad, he calmly faces the camera and announces that the "contest is bigger" than just him. The obvious point is that if people do think it's just about him, he is about to lose. 

His attempt to draw Nancy Polosi into the fray is clearly meant to fire up local conservatives in a way that makes them forget what he has done to his life and political career. 

That's a little desperate. 



(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Nasty developments in the South Carolina special House election

By Richard K. Barry

Push polling is a campaign technique that ranges from being a mildly disingenuous practice to downright despicable. It involves a group calling voters under the guise of conducting a legitimate poll, only to ask questions that leave a voter with a very misleading impression that an opposing candidate is in some way unacceptable.

A shadowy group called SSI Polling has been calling voters in South Carolina ahead of the special House election between Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch and Republican Mark Sanford. 

According to ThinkProgress, the questions asked "ranged from outlandish smears to thinly-veiled Republican talking points." The approach varied somewhat from call to call, but these were some of the "questions" asked:

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you she had had an abortion?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you a judge held her in contempt of court at her divorce proceedings?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if she had done jail time?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you she was caught running up a charge account bill?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if she supported the failed stimulus plan?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you unions contributed to her campaign?"

Isn't that amazing? They never actually accuse Colbert Busch of having had an abortion, or being held in contempt by a judge, or having done jail time, etc., but the impression the voters takes away is unmistakable. 


Read more »

Behind the Ad: Democratic super PAC on Mark Sanford's affair

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.)

Who: House Majority PAC (Democratic PAC).

Where: South Carolina First Congressional District.

What's going on: Anyone paying even slight attention knows that former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford famously disappeared to meet his Argentine mistress while in office. He is now trying to revive his political career by running in a special House election in the state. In this ad, a Democratic super PAC draws attention to the affair and attempts to appeal to women in particular who may have concerns about the indiscretion.


(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Rand Paul is already running hard

By Richard K. Barry

Sen. Rand Paul is certainly running hard for the presidency, early as it is. He'll be in Iowa and New Hampshire in May, and in South Carolina in June. 

CNN reports that he is getting ready to endorse Mark Sanford in the special election in South Carolina:

Paul is organizing a series of public and private appearances across the first-in-the-South primary state in June, GOP sources with knowledge with the plans told CNN. The trip is "an effort to get to know Republicans across the state," as one person involved in the event-planning described it.

Paul makes no secret of his libertarian leanings, just like his father, but he is trying to cleave to the centre a bit more in order to have a credible run at the top job. The question may be whether he can appeal to moderates without completely alienating libertarian activists who make up so much of his enthusiastic base. 

The bigger problem is probably that he won't be able to shed enough libertarian orthodoxy to appeal to moderates. 

And if Rand Paul finds some way to get the GOP nomination, Hillary won't need to break a sweat. 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Mark Sanford debates cardboard Nancy Pelosi

By Richard K. Barry

Losing the special House election in South Carolina may be the least of Mark Sanford's worries. He could be on the way to losing his mind, which is how it must have appeared when he debated a near lifesize picture of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi yesterday.

The gimmick had to do with the fact that Sanford's Democratic challenger Elizabeth Colbert Busch has refused to participate in four debates as Sanford requested and will only debate once. 

Why he didn't get a picture of Colbert Busch I just don't know. Perhaps he's read that Pelosi  is less popular. 

Apparently Sanford asked cardboard Pelosi some tough questions and chided her for her lack of response. Other times he answered for her. It must have been scintillating. 

I guess he could have debated on empty chair, but that's so last August. 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: Mark Sanford attacks Elizabeth Colbert Busch for her labor ties

By Richard K. Barry

Who: The Mark Sanford campaign

Where: South Carolina 1st Congressional District 

What's going on: Latest polls have former Gov. Mark Sanford (R) almost ten points behind Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) in the special House election in South Carolina. I guess if you're a Republican in the South and the going gets tough, you attack your opponent's connections to 'big labor."

According to the ad, because she has accepted union donations, a whopping $5000, she will "return the favour" should she be elected to Congress. For some reason candidates who take money from "big business" never seem to be in danger of returning that favor. 

It's tough times for Sanford who can't even get the date of the Alamo right. He ran a full page ad over the weekend comparing his struggle to the Alamo, though misstated the year (it was 1836, not 1863, as he'd written).

Okay, silly mistake, but when things start to go wrong, they continue to go wrong. 



(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: The DCCC attacks Mark Sanford in South Carolina

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.)  

Who: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Where: Special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District.

What's going on: The DCCC goes after Mark Sanford for alleged ethics violations when he was governor, just a day after the RNCC abandoned his campaign after charges that he trespassed on his ex-wife's property.

It's a clever little ad that makes no mention of Sanford's admitted extramarital affairs, though it shows a man walking through the woods, a reference to the alibi his gave to cover up his trip to Argentina to meet his mistress. Sanford told his aides he was hiking on the Appalachian Trail.

The DCCC is spending about $205,000 on the ad, which will run on broadcast television stations in the Charleston and Savannah, Ga., markets April 19-28, according to a committee source.

Sanford goes up against Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch, sister of Stephen Colbert, in a May 7 special House election to fill the seat vacated when former Rep. Tim Scott (R) was appointed to the Senate.

There is no doubt Sanford could still win in this very red district, but it will likely be close either way.

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Republican Party pulls out of Mark Sanford

By Michael J.W. Stickings

First my wife, now my party...

As I wrote yesterday, a Republican should have no trouble winning an election, special or otherwise, in South Carolina's First Congressional District (even against Elizabeth Colbert Busch, who, famous brother or not, is a political neophyte running in a red district).

Well, unless that Republican is Mark Sanford, the former governor and former holder of this very seat, who has finally, it would seem, crossed the line:

National Republicans are pulling the plug on Mark Sanford's suddenly besieged congressional campaign, POLITICO has learned — a potentially fatal blow to the former South Carolina governor's dramatic comeback bid.

Blindsided by news that Sanford's ex-wife has accused him of trespassing and concluding he has no plausible path to victory, the National Republican Congressional Committee has decided not to spend more money on Sanford's behalf ahead of the May 7 special election.

"Mark Sanford has proven he knows what it takes to win elections. At this time, the NRCC will not be engaged in this special election," said Andrea Bozek, an NRCC spokeswoman.

Translation: The guy's proven to be a massive hypocrite without a shred of genuine self-awareness or humility, and we were still behind him, but enough is enough.

Read more »

Sen. Lindsey Graham has a challenger

By Richard K. Barry

The Spartanburg Herald Journal reports that U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) will have at least one challenger in the 2014 Republican primary. Richard Cash, a businessman who owns a fleet of ice cream trucks and a used car business, has said he will run against Graham because the incumbent "does not reflect the core values of South Carolina voters."

He says Christian faith, free market capitalism, and a strict interpretation of the Constitution are a cornerstone of American society.On his website, Cash says other things about Graham being out of touch with South Carolina values owing to his 20 years in Washington.

Cash is a social conservative activist who barely lost a run-off election to now-Rep Jeff Duncan (R-SC) In 2010.

Graham probably isn't in much trouble, though he does annoy some on the right with his occasional flirtatious with bipartisanship, and foreign policy views that rankle libertarians.

To be on the safe side, we should say that we can't yet know how much influence the radical right is likely to have in 2014 and how vulnerable that might make relatively moderate (in this climate) Republicans.

According to The Hill, other Republicans considering a challenge are state Sen. Lee Bright (R) and Rand Paul supporter Nancy Mace.

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Mark Sanford, trespasser

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I realize this is for the most part a private matter that probably shouldn't have been made public, but I still find something delicious about it:

Jenny Sanford, the ex-wife of South Carolina congressional candidate and former Gov. Mark Sanford, has filed a lawsuit alleging that her husband trespassed at her home earlier this year, the Associated Press reported Tuesday evening.

According to the AP, Jenny Sanford's attorney filed a lawsuit on Feb. 4 alleging that she confronted Mark Sanford at her home the previous day, where he had been using his cellphone as a light. Trespassing would violate the terms of their divorce settlement, which said that neither would be able to be at the other's home without explicit permission.

A court hearing is slated for May 9, according to the report – two days after Sanford competes in a closely watched special election.

Ah yes, the special election, where he faces the formidable (and not just because of her brother) Elizabeth Colbert Busch. 

South Carolina's First is a solidly Republican district -- in fact, it's been Republican since 1981 (with Democrats holding it before that going all the way back to 1897). Sanford himself held it for three terms, first winning in the Republican wave of 1994. The previous incumbent, Tim Scott, is now in the Senate, and of course the state itself is solidly Republican as well.

Read more »

Behind the Ad: NRCC ad attacking Colbert Busch debuts on Vine

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.) 

Who: The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

Where: South Carolina special Congressional election.

What's going on: The NRCC calls this "the first time a political organization has launched an actual ad on Vine to attack an opponent." It focuses on traditional anti-union sentiment in the South to attack Elizabeth Colbert Busch, the Democratic candidate. Vine is a social video service owned by Twitter Inc. 

According Washington Wire:

The ad – which, like all vines, is several seconds of looping video – shows black and white images of sullen-looking faces, with the words: "Colbert Busch and the labor unions mean fewer jobs for South Carolina."

Well, being first might mean something, if it were true. Unfortunately for the RNCC, American Bridge 21st Century made a Vine video earlier this year attacking Ken Cuccinelli, who is seeking the Republican nomination in the Virginia governor race.

I'm not very familiar with the technology, but it would seem that one just clicks on the image, and then clicks on the sound icon to hear or mute the audio. 


(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Battlelines are drawn for the 2014 South Carolina governor's race

By Richard K. Barry 

State Senator Vincent Sheheen said yesterday that he will again run for governor of South Carolina. He lost in 2010 to then-Rep. Nikki Haley by the relatively narrow margin of 51.4 to 47 percent. 

Haley has not formally announced her intentions, but it is widely expected she will seek re-election.  

According to local press:

Sheheen said Wednesday he thinks Republican Nikki Haley's first-term record as governor gives him a better chance to win in his second try for the state's top office.

"In 2010, I ran because I thought I was best choice for governor, and I think, over the past three years, Nikki Haley has pretty much proven that," said the Kershaw County Democrat...

"People are tired having one of the worst unemployment rates in the country. They're tired of having roads crumble. They're tired of this administration putting forward no plans for public education."

*****

With Sheheen's announcement Wednesday, sniping from both sides began more than 18 months before the November 2014 general election.

"Not really much news here – he's been running for governor his entire adult life," said Haley political advisor Tim Pearson, who called Sheheen "a pro-labor union trial lawyer."

S.C. GOP chairman Chad Connelly added: "The Vince Sheheen that announced for governor today is even more liberal than the Vince Sheheen that voters rejected in 2010. Today's Vince Sheheen fully supports President Obama's failed policies."

And they're off!

Is it relevant that the last gubernatorial election in South Carolina took place on Nov. 2, 2010, a day when many things across the country were coming up Republican? I should think. In any case, a rematch for the two is likely to be close once again.

Does Stephen Colbert's sister have a chance in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Yes. But I'd say it's less than a 50% chance.

According to a new PPP poll, she's doing well:

PPP's first look at the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a toss up race. Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch leads Republican Mark Sanford 47-45 and ties Curtis Bostic at 43.

This is a Republican leaning district and Barack Obama's approval rating in it is only 41% with 57% of voters disapproving of him. But Democrats are far more unified than the Republicans are. Busch is winning 87-89% of the Democratic vote while Sanford (76%) and Bostic (72%) are both earning less than 80% of the GOP vote. Busch is also up by 16-18 points with independent voters.

So far, so good.

Now, (Colbert) Busch's opponent is likely to be Sanford, who's trying to get back into office after, you know, taking some time off to hike the Appalachian Trail. And things do look promising for her:

Focusing in on the potential race between Busch and Sanford it's surprisingly close for one simple reason -- voters like Busch and they continue to strongly dislike Sanford. 45% of voters see Busch favorably to only 31% with a negative opinion. On the other hand Sanford is still stuck with a 34% favorability rating and 58% of voters seeing him in a negative light. 

Voters in the district have every reason to dislike the former governor. Even if you don't want to get into the trials and tribulations of his personal life, he violated the trust the voters of South Carolina placed in him, used state resources to support his philandering, and proved to be, as so many Republicans are, a massive hypocrite without a shred of genuine self-awareness or humility.

Read more »

The new guy: Tim Scott and Republican extremism

By Mustang Bobby

South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) has appointed Rep. Tim Scott to fill out the remainder of Sen. Jim DeMint's term in the U.S. Senate. Mr. DeMint, you'll recall, announced his resignation recently so he could go run the Heritage Foundation and turn it into a Tea Party enclave. I'm sure the fact that the previous president of the foundation raked in over $1 million in salary versus the paltry six figures earned by a senator had absolutely nothing to do with it.

As ThinkProgress notes, Mr. Scott's views on issues are virtually the same as Mr. DeMint's, and in his brief career in the House — he was first elected in 2010 — he has made some interesting news: 

Proposed a bill to cut off food stamps for entire families if one member went on strike. One of the most anti-union members of Congress, Scott proposed a bill two months after entering Congress in 2011 to kick families off food stamps if one adult were participating in a strike. Scott's legislation made no exception for children or other dependents. 

Wanted to spend an unlimited amount of money to display Ten Commandments outside county building. When Scott was on the Charleston County Council, one of his primary issues was displaying the Ten Commandments outside the Council building. According to the Augusta Chronicle, Scott said the display "would remind council members and speakers the moral absolutes they should follow." When he was sued for violating the Constitution and a Circuit Judge's orders, Scott was nonplussed: "Whatever it costs in the pursuit of this goal (of displaying the Commandments) is worth it."

Read more »

Give the people what they want: Senator Stephen Colbert

By Michael J.W. Stickings

PPP:

Nikki Haley is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 42% of voters approve of the job she's doing to 49% who disapprove. Out of 43 sitting Governors PPP has polled on, that ranks her 35th in popularity.

Haley has pretty solid numbers within her own party. 70% of Republicans approve of the job she's doing to 22% who disapprove. But with Democrats (15/78 approval) and independents (28/57) her numbers are pretty woeful.

There is a path back to popularity for Haley though: appointing Stephen Colbert to replace Jim DeMint in the Senate. Colbert tops the wish list of who South Carolina voters would like to see join that body at 20%, followed by Tim Scott at 15%, Trey Gowdy at 14%, Jenny Sanford at 11%, Henry McMaster and Mark Sanford at 8%, Jeff Duncan and Joe Wilson at 5%, and Mick Mulvaney at 4%.

That's right: Stephen Colbert. (He promoted the idea hilariously last night.)

Does it matter that Colbert isn't a Republican and that "Stephen Colbert," his brilliant character, makes a name for himself mocking conservatives by being one himself, an on-air distillation of conservatism?

Not to me. Not one bit.

Nikki Haley to be indicted for tax fraud? (update)

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Updating my post from earlier today, it looks as if South Carolina Gov. (and right-wing star) Nikki Haley is not going to be indicted for tax fraud:

South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's office Friday provided IRS documentation that she is not facing investigation for tax fraud, calling accusations that she was "totally contrived."

Haley denied the rumors of a looming tax indictment on Thursday. The rumors were based on an anonymously sourced blog post alleging that the Internal Revenue Service was investigating possible tax fraud at a Sikh center where the governor's parents are top officials. The Palmetto Public Record claimed Haley managed the temple's finances as recently as 2003 and implicated her in a failure by the temple to pay contractors. The governor denied keeping the books for the church.

Well, as I wrote, innocent until proven guilty, and the rumor only came from this one relatively unknown blog, at least outside of South Carolina, the Palmetto Public Record.

Unsurprisingly, Haley has taken aim at "dirty blogger politics," a typically Palin-esque way of deflecting a crisis (or any bad news), and is also arguing (ridiculously, it seems to me) that such rumors are hurting the state's efforts to attract business investment, but actually, as The State reports, there were other reasons for speculation, and even if the IRS isn't investigating Haley personally, it is probing possible tax irregularities (to put it nicely) at her parents' Sikh temple. 

Again, there may be nothing to this. For all I know, the IRS will find, or has already found, that the temple did nothing wrong or that, even if it did, Haley didn't do anything wrong. But I do still wonder how all this will hurt Haley's national profile, if at all.

Would she have been on Romney's VP shortlist? Will she be, even now?

It's hard to see Romney going with an inexperienced young governor after the Palin debacle of '08, but she seems to be much more substantial than Palin and obviously is demographically desirable for the extremely white/male GOP.

It's certainly a possibility.