Behind the Ad: Elizabeth Colbert Busch's final push

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.) 

Who: The Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) campaign.

Where: South Carolina's First Congressional District.

What's going on: In this ad, Colbert Busch talks about the need for a balanced budget amendment and a ban on special interest earmarks. She also pledges to cut her own pay by ten percent. It is, after all, a red state. She has to make fiscally conservative noises.

With the election a day away, Colbert Busch has been endorsed by the biggest newspaper in the district:

The Charleston (S.C.) Post And Courier endorsed Colbert Busch on Sunday, lauding her as "A new leader for the Lowcountry." Her "resolve to reach across the aisle" would serve South Carolina well on local and national platforms, the paper wrote.

A survey by Public Policy Polling on April 22 had Colbert Busch ahead by nine points, but the GOP-leaning Red Racing Horses had the two candidates tied as of Thursday.

It does appear that it will be close between Colbert Busch and former Republican Gov. Mark Sanford. This one probably is too close to call and may depend on how many conservative women are so disgusted by Sanford that they stay home tomorrow. 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: Mark Sanford says, "don't look here, look there"

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.) 

Who: The Mark Sanford campaign.

Where: South Carolina's First Congressional District

What's going on: With the South Carolina House special election only days away, it seems that former Gov. Mark Sanford is taking a different approach. In a new ad, he calmly faces the camera and announces that the "contest is bigger" than just him. The obvious point is that if people do think it's just about him, he is about to lose. 

His attempt to draw Nancy Polosi into the fray is clearly meant to fire up local conservatives in a way that makes them forget what he has done to his life and political career. 

That's a little desperate. 



(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Nasty developments in the South Carolina special House election

By Richard K. Barry

Push polling is a campaign technique that ranges from being a mildly disingenuous practice to downright despicable. It involves a group calling voters under the guise of conducting a legitimate poll, only to ask questions that leave a voter with a very misleading impression that an opposing candidate is in some way unacceptable.

A shadowy group called SSI Polling has been calling voters in South Carolina ahead of the special House election between Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch and Republican Mark Sanford. 

According to ThinkProgress, the questions asked "ranged from outlandish smears to thinly-veiled Republican talking points." The approach varied somewhat from call to call, but these were some of the "questions" asked:

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you she had had an abortion?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you a judge held her in contempt of court at her divorce proceedings?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if she had done jail time?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you she was caught running up a charge account bill?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if she supported the failed stimulus plan?" 

- "What would you think of Elizabeth Colbert Busch if I told you unions contributed to her campaign?"

Isn't that amazing? They never actually accuse Colbert Busch of having had an abortion, or being held in contempt by a judge, or having done jail time, etc., but the impression the voters takes away is unmistakable. 


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Behind the Ad: Democratic super PAC on Mark Sanford's affair

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our extensive "Behind the Ad" series.)

Who: House Majority PAC (Democratic PAC).

Where: South Carolina First Congressional District.

What's going on: Anyone paying even slight attention knows that former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford famously disappeared to meet his Argentine mistress while in office. He is now trying to revive his political career by running in a special House election in the state. In this ad, a Democratic super PAC draws attention to the affair and attempts to appeal to women in particular who may have concerns about the indiscretion.


(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Rand Paul is already running hard

By Richard K. Barry

Sen. Rand Paul is certainly running hard for the presidency, early as it is. He'll be in Iowa and New Hampshire in May, and in South Carolina in June. 

CNN reports that he is getting ready to endorse Mark Sanford in the special election in South Carolina:

Paul is organizing a series of public and private appearances across the first-in-the-South primary state in June, GOP sources with knowledge with the plans told CNN. The trip is "an effort to get to know Republicans across the state," as one person involved in the event-planning described it.

Paul makes no secret of his libertarian leanings, just like his father, but he is trying to cleave to the centre a bit more in order to have a credible run at the top job. The question may be whether he can appeal to moderates without completely alienating libertarian activists who make up so much of his enthusiastic base. 

The bigger problem is probably that he won't be able to shed enough libertarian orthodoxy to appeal to moderates. 

And if Rand Paul finds some way to get the GOP nomination, Hillary won't need to break a sweat. 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Republican Party pulls out of Mark Sanford

By Michael J.W. Stickings

First my wife, now my party...

As I wrote yesterday, a Republican should have no trouble winning an election, special or otherwise, in South Carolina's First Congressional District (even against Elizabeth Colbert Busch, who, famous brother or not, is a political neophyte running in a red district).

Well, unless that Republican is Mark Sanford, the former governor and former holder of this very seat, who has finally, it would seem, crossed the line:

National Republicans are pulling the plug on Mark Sanford's suddenly besieged congressional campaign, POLITICO has learned — a potentially fatal blow to the former South Carolina governor's dramatic comeback bid.

Blindsided by news that Sanford's ex-wife has accused him of trespassing and concluding he has no plausible path to victory, the National Republican Congressional Committee has decided not to spend more money on Sanford's behalf ahead of the May 7 special election.

"Mark Sanford has proven he knows what it takes to win elections. At this time, the NRCC will not be engaged in this special election," said Andrea Bozek, an NRCC spokeswoman.

Translation: The guy's proven to be a massive hypocrite without a shred of genuine self-awareness or humility, and we were still behind him, but enough is enough.

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Mark Sanford, trespasser

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I realize this is for the most part a private matter that probably shouldn't have been made public, but I still find something delicious about it:

Jenny Sanford, the ex-wife of South Carolina congressional candidate and former Gov. Mark Sanford, has filed a lawsuit alleging that her husband trespassed at her home earlier this year, the Associated Press reported Tuesday evening.

According to the AP, Jenny Sanford's attorney filed a lawsuit on Feb. 4 alleging that she confronted Mark Sanford at her home the previous day, where he had been using his cellphone as a light. Trespassing would violate the terms of their divorce settlement, which said that neither would be able to be at the other's home without explicit permission.

A court hearing is slated for May 9, according to the report – two days after Sanford competes in a closely watched special election.

Ah yes, the special election, where he faces the formidable (and not just because of her brother) Elizabeth Colbert Busch. 

South Carolina's First is a solidly Republican district -- in fact, it's been Republican since 1981 (with Democrats holding it before that going all the way back to 1897). Sanford himself held it for three terms, first winning in the Republican wave of 1994. The previous incumbent, Tim Scott, is now in the Senate, and of course the state itself is solidly Republican as well.

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Does Stephen Colbert's sister have a chance in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Yes. But I'd say it's less than a 50% chance.

According to a new PPP poll, she's doing well:

PPP's first look at the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a toss up race. Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch leads Republican Mark Sanford 47-45 and ties Curtis Bostic at 43.

This is a Republican leaning district and Barack Obama's approval rating in it is only 41% with 57% of voters disapproving of him. But Democrats are far more unified than the Republicans are. Busch is winning 87-89% of the Democratic vote while Sanford (76%) and Bostic (72%) are both earning less than 80% of the GOP vote. Busch is also up by 16-18 points with independent voters.

So far, so good.

Now, (Colbert) Busch's opponent is likely to be Sanford, who's trying to get back into office after, you know, taking some time off to hike the Appalachian Trail. And things do look promising for her:

Focusing in on the potential race between Busch and Sanford it's surprisingly close for one simple reason -- voters like Busch and they continue to strongly dislike Sanford. 45% of voters see Busch favorably to only 31% with a negative opinion. On the other hand Sanford is still stuck with a 34% favorability rating and 58% of voters seeing him in a negative light. 

Voters in the district have every reason to dislike the former governor. Even if you don't want to get into the trials and tribulations of his personal life, he violated the trust the voters of South Carolina placed in him, used state resources to support his philandering, and proved to be, as so many Republicans are, a massive hypocrite without a shred of genuine self-awareness or humility.

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