Things are getting interesting in the Maine Senate race

By Richard K. Barry

Politics is endlessly fascinating. Popular Maine Republican Senator Olympia Snowe decided a while ago not to run again. The Democrats got very excited about the possibility of stealing the seat and set about the task.

Enter Angus King, the popular former governor of the state who has declared his intention to seek the vacant Senate seat as an independent. And, although it is not clear which party King would caucus with should he win, which is a real possibility, there is some consensus among both Democrats and Republicans, according to The Hill, that King would side with the Democrats.

Currently King is polling ahead of both Republican and Democratic prospective challengers, which creates a problem for both parties.

For the Democrats:

If they support one of the four Democrats competing in the primary, they risk siphoning votes away from King and handing the seat to the Republicans.

For the Republicans, who really do think, apparently, that King will caucus with the Democrats, the problem can be described like this:

Republicans know they must attack King if they want to create an opening for one of the six GOP candidates to defeat him. If attacks on King peel off just enough votes, King and the Democratic nominee could split Maine's large swatch of centrist voters, and the Republicans could walk away with the seat.

But push too many voters away from King and to the Democratic nominee, and there's a slight chance the Democrat could win the seat - an outcome the GOP would like even less than having King win in the Senate.

It's not a perfect scenario for anyone, but The Hill is suggesting that most strategists think that Democrats will officially support their party's nominee and then sit on their hands, doing little to help their candidate get elected.

As for the ever important question of money, if the Democrats more or less decide that King is unbeatable, they have the option of diverting cash elsewhere to support candidates in tight races.

Republicans, who would otherwise have had to put little effort into a likely Snowe re-election, will now have to commit special effort and resources to be competitive in Maine.

If everyone is right and King, assuming he is successful, caucuses with the Dems, this is not the worst outcome for Harry Reid and friends, especially in a year when a Senate majority will be hotly contested and in which Maine would have otherwise been a safe GOP seat.

As I say, endlessly fascinating.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)