Cain rises, Romney stabilizes, Perry stumbles: A look at the sad state of the Republican presidential race

By Michael J.W. Stickings

According to Gallup, Herman Cain has surged so much he's now a close second to Mitt Romney, just two points back at 18.

To which I say: Go ahead and nominate him, Republicans.

Seriously.

If you're feeling that lucky, go ahead and make our 2012 for us.

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A few observations:

-- This is just one poll, obviously, and Gallup is hardly flawless. But there is no doubt that Cain has surged ahead of his right-wing rivals, including Perry, and that he's up near Romney.

-- Rick Perry is third at 15. A lot of people are writing him off, but, well, I think it's far too early to do so. He's been a terrible candidate so far, but he's still the most credible conservative in the race. Unless he quits, a distinct possibility if he and his handlers think the writing is on the wall, he might just be able to gather up all the right-wing opposition to Romney and find his voice, and his purpose, on the campaign trail. This is possible mainly because Romney isn't running away with it and because the field remains incredibly weak.

-- Romney is an incredibly weak frontrunner. He has national name-recognition, extensive on-the-ground campaigns across the country, and the backing of much of the GOP establishment, but he also has a really low ceiling of support. This poll puts him at 20. He was at 27 back in June, but he dropped to 17 in August, when Perry got in. He seems to be stuck in the 20-25 range with a possible ceiling of around 30. Yes, he'd pick up additional support in, say, a one-on-one race against Perry or Cain (even if Ron Paul, at 8 percent, were to stay in, as he very well may), but he appears to be running against the Republican primary base, not with it. He may win, but as I wrote a couple of weeks ago:

It's hard to imagine him winning with just 20-25 per cent support, but he could possibly boost that into the 30s and hold off his conservative challengers. But then what? Would Republicans really be happy with Romney having won the nomination with well short of majority support, with the right-wing base largely arrayed against him, and with the right divided? How much enthusiasm do you think there would be even within his own party for a Romney-led ticket? Sure, he could try to boost his standing among conservatives by continuing to move to the right and by picking a popular right-wing running mate (Ryan maybe?), but, just as he has never been able to shed his reputation as an opportunistic flip-flopper, would he ever be able to shed the stink of essentially having won the nomination by default? Conservatives still wouldn't like him and by moving to the right he would only weaken his standing among independents. He may get what he so badly wants, the Republican presidential nomination, but it's almost as if he's in a no-win situation.

-- Romney has the same amount of support as there are undecideds: 20 percent. For what that's worth.

-- Newt Gingrich, 7 percent. Still hanging around, probably looking to play kingmaker if he can. And to continue to rake in the millions by keeping up his national profile as long as possible.

-- Michele Bachmann, 5 percent. Hopeless. How the mighty have fallen.

-- Rick Santorum, 3 percent. Even more hopeless. And never mighty.

-- Poor Jon Huntsman, at 2 percent. Not so formidable after all. He may not be a great candidate even in the best of times, but his poor showing proves that Republicans really are too stupid to know what's good for them.

-- Would be GOP saviors Sarah Palin, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and Mitch Daniels are out, never having gotten in. But what about Haley "Boss Hogg" Barbour? He also decided not to run, but I endorsed him way back when and he remains the (almost) perfect Republican (though Marco Rubio may be more perfect and like Nikki Haley looks to have a very bright future in the party).

-- If things don't go well next year... Rubio-Haley 2016?