NFL 2011: Week 5 picks

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Alright, so we're a quarter of the way through the season and apparently headed for a Bills-Lions Super Bowl in Indianapolis. Or maybe not. Buffalo faltered last week against Cincy and is likely headed for a 9-7 record, at best. I'd say more like 8-8 or even 7-9. The Lions are definitely for real, though, with an offence that can overcome any deficit. I don't think it's their year, but they're on the way up, should make the playoffs as a wild card, and have enough talent to pull off an upset.

But no team, it seems, is without major flaws, which means we can look forward to further unpredictability and surprises. The Pats have a powerful offence but little to no pass rush and a weak secondary. The Pack have a similarly powerful offence but are struggling on defence, particularly in the secondary, a strength last year. Those are the two teams I picked to make the Super Bowl, though, and after four weeks I'm sticking with them.

The Ravens could challenge the Pats, with a defence that looks as good as ever despite question marks in the secondary, but their Flacco-led offence looked terrible last week against the Jets (who looked much worse with Sanchez under center). The Chargers? Maybe, but I can't really consider them an elite team. They'll win the weak AFC West and have enough talent to make it all the way, but they've still got a lot to prove. The Texans? Also maybe. They certainly looked good against my Steelers last week, with a healthy (for now) Arian Foster back to form, but I'm not convinced they're much more than a good team with some great fantasy players.

The Steelers? Yeah, right. (More on them below.)

Over in the NFC, the Pack look solid, with the Eagles stumbling, the Cowboys self-destructing on a weekly basis, and a bunch of other next-tier teams -- Giants, Falcons, Bucs -- hardly looking much like champions. The Saints? Maybe, with that offence, but can they stop anyone? So, yes, maybe the Lions. Maybe.

Anyway, let's do this...

As you may know, my associate editor Richard (who at 14-2 had a fantastic Week 4), a friend of ours nicknamed Comfortable Kid, and I are tracking our picks this year, with posts going up each Sunday at 11 am. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty. Below you'll find our picks, plus comments. First, though, here's how we're doing so far:

Last week

RKB: 14-2 (plus upset) = 16 points

MJWS: 12-4 = 12 points

The Kid: 11-5 = 11 points

Season to date

MJWS: 47-17 (2 upsets right, 0 locks wrong) = 51 points

RKB: 45-19 (2 upsets right, 1 locks wrong) = 47 points

The Kid: 39-25 (1 upsets right, 2 locks wrong) = 37 points

Here are this week's games:

Philadelphia at Buffalo

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Arizona at Minnesota

Seattle at N.Y. Giants

Tennessee at Pittsburgh

New Orleans at Carolina

Cincinnati at Jacksonville

Oakland at Houston

Tampa Bay at San Francisco

San Diego at Denver

N.Y. Jets at New England

Green Bay at Atlanta

Chicago at Detroit

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Minnesota, N.Y. Giants, Tennessee, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Houston, Tampa Bay, San Diego, New England, Green Bay, Detroit.

Only 13 games this week, with six teams on bye, havoc being wreaked upon fantasy teams across the land. It's weeks like this when the likes of Tarvaris Jackson and even Curtis Painter are much-much-sought-after fill-ins at QB.

I'm going back and forth on a number of games:

-- Surely the Eagles have to get their act together once of these weeks, no? The Bills have proven they can hang with anyone, and they'll be looking to rebound after last week's loss, but Vick should be able to score at will and the Eagles far-worse-than-expected D should be able to contain Fitzpatrick and the Bills' wildly overrated O.

-- Do the Chiefs suck? Yes. Do the Colts suck? Yes. So I guess I'm taking Indy at home. Cassel is at least a QB with a proven record of success, as opposed to Painter, but that Colts' D (particularly the pass-rush combo of Mathis and Freeney but even Angerer and the solid LB corps) showed me something a couple of weeks ago against Pittsburgh and we tend to forget that Indy has some big-time weapons to help out Painter (Wayne, Garcon, Clark, Addai).

-- Am I really picking against the Steelers? Yes. Yes I am. Big Ben will be wearing a protective boot, and he'll be significantly less mobile than usual behind that awful offensive line (though I actually have hopes for that o-line over the longer term, just not this week). Mendenhall has a bad hammy (though he's been terrible this year and Redman, his replacement should he not be able to play, may actually be better right now). The o-line continues to be brought even lower by injuries (Kemoeatu is out). Harrison is out at LB with a fractured orbital bone. Two of the three starters on the d-line are out (Smith and Hampton), though they have solid replacements. And even some of their top backups are out (Moore at RB, their third-down pass-catching guy, and Worilds at LB, though Timmons will move to the outside to replace Harrison and Foote, an experienced veteran, will start at Timmons' spot next to Farrior inside.) Long story short, they're in trouble, and the Titans, even without stud WR Kenny Britt, are playing great football so far. I don't trust Hasselbeck, but he's a solid enough veteran to manage the game effective, and I suspect that Chris Johnson will get back on track by running all over a Steelers D that suddenly can't stop the run. I'm dreading this game, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if my trip to the 'Burgh next week

-- The 49ers, at 3-1, are leading the worst division in the history of North American professional sports, the NFC West. And they're at home. But Freeman seems to be a winner, and he'll find some way of taking some of the wind out of San Fran's sails. This could be one of those 17-13 craptaculars. Gimme the Bucs and the better QB, Freeman over Smith.

-- Arizona vs. Minnesota is a battle of mediocre teams that find ways to lose. McNabb has been terrible, but the Vikes are at home, Peterson can carry their offence (if they let him and don't change things up at halftime by shifting the burden to McNabb), and the Cards have a horrendous D. Kolb, Fitzgerald, and Wells (if he's healthy) have enough talent to make it close, but if the Vikes lose this they should just pack up and move to L.A. next week. (Kidding. I actually don't want L.A. to have a team.)

-- Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Cincinnati. Ugh. The Jags are at home, but in the battle of rookie QBs Dalton is much better than Gabbert (at least right now, maybe not long-term) and the Bengals actually have a decent D.

Lock of the Week: N.Y. Giants.

See, Richard. I don't hate on your boys nearly as much as you think I do. I'm often tempted to take Seattle at home, particularly as an upset dog, but on the road in the Meadowlands they stand zero chance.

Another option is Houston, at home against Oakland, but maybe the Raiders play extra hard this week in memory of Al Davis. San Diego's probably a lock at Mile High, but I've taken the Chargers as my lock a couple of times already and want to shake it up a bit. Detroit will beat Chicago... but the Bears might just have what it takes to slow down Stafford, Megatron, and Co.

Upset of the Week: Tennessee.

For the reasons explained above. Basically, there's no way the Steelers run away this this, which means at the very least for the Titans it will be close... close enough to pull off the upset against a Pittsburgh squad operating at far less than full strength. (Given how good the Titans D has been, though, Tennessee could win this one going away.)

I was tempted to take the Chiefs here, but, as I also explain above, I'm going with Indy at home.

Three possible upsets:

1) Jets over Pats. Ryan over Belichick. The Jets haven't looked like a contender this year, but they do have a really good D and Sanchez could make things happen if he has enough time.

2) Falcons over Pack: No way I'm going against Rodgers, who was simply awesome last week (confirming my pre-season pick of him as this year's offensive MVP), but it's not like Green Bay has stopped anyone this year and Falcons' QB Matt Ryan likes playing at home. If it's a shoot-out, Atlanta could prevail.

3) Bears over Lions: It's possible, just possible, Chicago slows down that high-octane Detroit offence. And, if you haven't noticed, Bears' RB Matt Forte is really, really good, maybe the most underrated player in the league. If Cutler doesn't make too many mistakes... well, you never know.

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Buffalo, Indianapolis, Arizona, N.Y. Giants, Tennessee, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Houston, San Francisco, San Diego, New England, Green Bay, Detroit. 

Lock of the Week: New Orleans.

Upset of the Week: Tennessee.

I'm not the kind of football fan who picks winners and losers with any kind of system. For me, it's all about feel, which is another way of saying I really have no idea what I'm talking about. Most of the time, surprisingly, I do pretty well -- like last week when I went 14-2 and picked San Francisco to beat the Eagles. Of course, this week I could do much worse, and probably will, but it's only a game, right? Just for fun. Right? Yeah, right.

Anyway, here we go:

Buffalo vs. Philly. Two teams coming off a disappointing loss. But the Eagles were supposed to do great things this year, while the Bills contending at all is making their fans ecstatic. In my humble opinion, the Eagles are in free-fall and the Bills are playing loose enough to come back and will take Philadelphia in a high-scoring affair.

Indy under Painter isn't going to do much. And K.C. has improved a little bit after starting terribly. Still, I like Indy for this one. It's a proud franchise and they'll find a way to win against another weak team.

Arizona probably should have beaten the Giants last week. Yes, yes, the Cruz "non-fumble" was within the letter of the rule book, but it was a sad display. On top of that, Minnesota is truly pathetic. So, Arizona.

I just have a feeling the Texans will start to play well consistently. They are too good a team not to. The Raiders have had their moments, but they won't win this one.

New Orleans will beat Carolina in a high-scoring game. Newton is very good, but not good enough to beat Brees and the boys.

Cincy over the Jags. I like Andy Dalton. Gabbert may develop, but not in time to win here.

I'm calling the Titans over the Steelers as my upset of the week. Just picked up Hasselbeck as my second fantasy QB behind Eli. The Steelers are a great frachise, but some years the wheels just come off the cart, and this is one of those years for the black and gold.

S.F. had a great comeback win over the Eagles last week. These guys aren't half bad. I like Josh Freeman, which is to say that I don't feel great about this pick, but will say S.F.

New England over the Jets. I grew up hating the Jets and nothing has changed. Come on, Rex, show us something that isn't just your big mouth.

S.D. will handle Denver. G.B. over Atlanta, although my guess is that a lot of people may be thinking it's time for the Pack to trip up a little bit. Maybe, but not against an inconsistent Falcons team. Lions over the Bears. Stafford will be able to throw on Chicago. And I just don't love Cutler. Yes, the Lions are finally for real.

The Giants should be able to throw the ball on the Seahawks all day, especially at home. I have to say that I don't expect great things this year from the Giants, but they should be able to make it interesting. After this game, they'll have to start playing good teams. We'll see how that goes.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Buffalo, Kansas City, Arizona, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Houston, San Francisco, San Diego, New England, Green Bay, Detroit.

Lock of the Week: N.Y. Giants.

I've talked a lot about the Seahawks for some reason lately, and for that I apologize. This time I'll take a Giants team that appears to be on the upswing. By the looks of things, they won't have Justin "Assorted, no tomatoes" Tuck to anchor the defence, but I feel as though the offence settles in here and Eli "Dakota Fanning" Manning has a good game. I'll stop with the nicknames bit starting -- now. 

Upset of the Week: Kansas City.

I'll take the Chiefs to upset the Colts this week. Two pretty bad teams, but I think people are giving Colts QB Curtis Painter too much credit for his "not terrible" performance last week. Painter went 13/30, 280 or so yards with 2 TDs, and was sacked 4 times. Not that impressive, really. If KC can get some pressure on him, I think they could take this game down.

(Photos: Three of the top young pass-rushers in the league, Jason Pierre-Paul of the Giants, Von Miller of the Broncos, and Tamba Hali of the Chiefs.)