Electoral history and perspective 2

By Edward Copeland

(Part 1, posted yesterday, is here.)

MAINE (4 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: Romney
Conclusion: The last four elections, Maine has went Democratic. The five before that, it went GOP. In the most recent polls, Clinton leads McCain by only six percentage points while Obama leads McCain by 14 points. It will probably swing Democratic in November, but even more assuredly if Obama is the standard bearer.

MARYLAND (10 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: One of the biggest Democratic strongholds, going Dem in 7 out of the last 10 elections. Again, Obama is beating McCain by 13 points while Hillary leads only by 9 points. Either way, the Dems should get this one.

MASSACHUSETTS (12 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: Romney
Conclusion: A reliably Democratic state, only going red during both of Reagan's elections. Either Obama or Clinton should win this one easily.

MICHIGAN (17 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: ????????
GOP primary winner: Romney
Conclusion: Michigan has gone Dem for the past four elections, but went GOP the five before that. Recent polls show McCain ahead of both Clinton and Obama by three points, within the margin of error, with sizable undecided numbers. Who can say how this one will really play?

MINNESOTA (10 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: Romney
Conclusion: The state only went red in 1972 in the past 10 races and this one shouldn't be any different except that in the most recent polls McCain beats Hillary by five points while Obama beats McCain by 15 points.

MISSISSIPPI (6 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: Among the reddest of red states. McCain will get this in a walk over Obama or Clinton.

MISSOURI (11 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: This state usually goes Republican, but it's always close. In fact, that was even true in the primaries, where Obama's victory over Hillary and McCain's over Huckabee were both by 1 percent. This will be one of the main battlegrounds, no matter who the Democratic nominee is. This is borne out in recent polling as well, where McCain leads Hillary by 1 percent and Obama by 2 percent with sizable undecideds. Missouri could well be the decisive state.

MONTANA (3 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary: To be held June 3
GOP caucus winner: Romney
Conclusion: Except for Clinton's 1992 win, this is a solidly Republican state, though McCain finished third behind Romney and Ron Paul. The most recent polls show McCain beating Hillary by 20 points with 14 percent undecided and McCain beating Obama, but only by 8 points with 14 percent undecided. Still, it doesn't much matter because I'm sure it will end up in the red column.

NEBRASKA (5 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP primary: To be held May 13
Conclusion: For a state that has gone Republican in the 10 past presidential elections, a March poll shows Obama surprisingly close to McCain, losing only by 3 points, within the margin of error. On the other hand, the same poll showed Hillary losing to McCain by 27 points. Could Nebraska actually be in play if Obama is the nominee?

NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: New Hampshire went for Kerry and for Bill Clinton twice, but its history has usually been to go for the GOP. Still, N.H. is one of the angriest anti-Dubya states. Despite her primary win, Hillary only leads McCain by 2 points while Obama beats McCain by 13 points.

NEW JERSEY (15 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: New Jersey has been consistently in the Dem column in the past four elections, but before that it went GOP the previous six. Again, though Clinton won the primary, Obama does slightly better in a potential matchup with McCain beating him by 7 points to Hillary's 6 points. Either way, I think N.J. is safe for the Dems.

NEW MEXICO (5 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic caucus winner: Clinton
GOP primary: To be held June 3
Conclusion: Once they finally finished counting, Hillary eked out a 1 point victory over Obama. The general election here is almost always as close. Even though McCain is a next door numbers, polls show Obama winning by 15 points while Hillary only tops McCain by 5 points.

NEW YORK (31 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: Of course, it's important to remember that New York is "a big state" that Hillary won, unlike Illinois which Obama one because Obama is the senator from Illinois, so it doesn't count. The fact that Hillary is the senator of New York is merely coincidental to her win. (Interestingly, she only beat Obama by 17 points in her home state compared to the 32 points beat her in his home state.) Still, New York has been reliably Democratic for the past five elections. Once again though, a recent poll shows Obama win over McCain being bigger in New York (21 points) than Hillary's (11 points). Regardless, either Dem should easily take the state. Oh wait, McCain won the primary. So if Obama is the nominee, that means McCain's better equipped to win the general, right? At least, that's what the Clintonistas would argue.

NORTH CAROLINA (15 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic and GOP primaries: To be held May 6
Conclusion: Surprisingly, for a dyed-in-the-wool red state, a March poll shows Obama only 2 points behind McCain. The same poll shows Hillary 8 points behind McCain. Nevertheless, I imagine it would have to be a true Democratic landslide in November for this state not to go GOP.

NORTH DAKOTA (3 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: Romney
Conclusion: After 10 straight Republican wins in general elections, I imagine you can color this one red, despite a March poll that actually shows Obama 4 points AHEAD of McCain. The same poll shows Hillary 19 points BEHIND McCain. I imagine the Hillary numbers are probably more accurate for both Democrats. At least the state's only worth 3 electoral votes.

OHIO (20 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: Ohio, while it has gone occasionally to Democrats, always tends to break our hearts. February polls show both Clinton and Obama trailing McCain, but not by a lot. Either candidate will have to fight for this one, which they must.

OKLAHOMA (7 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: If this state is going to go Democratic for the first time since 1964, I can't imagine it's this year, even if a native son was a v.p. choice.

OREGON (7 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic and GOP primaries: To be held May 20
Conclusion: While this state has gone Democratic for five straight general elections, it was very close in 2004. February polls showed Obama 1 point up on McCain and Hillary 8 points behind McCain. The Dems need to hold on to this one and I think they should be able to. At least I hope they do.

PENNSYLVANIA (21 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic and GOP primaries: To be held April 22
Conclusion: February polls showed both Clinton and Obama barely ahead of McCain, with a large number of undecided. This is a true swing state. On the plus side, they threw Rick Santorum out of office last time. On the minus side, they elected him to the Senate in the first place and Kerry only beat Dubya there in 2004 by 2 points.

RHODE ISLAND (4 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: For five straight elections, this has landed in the Democrats' column and I can't imagine it will be different this year with either Obama or Hillary at the top of the ticket.

SOUTH CAROLINA (8 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: While I would love to see S.C. break McCain's heart one more time, I can't see the Democrats winning here no matter who is at the top of the ticket.

SOUTH DAKOTA (3 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic and GOP primaries: To be held June 3
Conclusion: I'm afraid McCain will beat either Democrat handily here.

TENNESSEE (11 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: If Gore couldn't even carry his home state, I'd be surprised if the Democrats could do it this year.

TEXAS (34 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Clinton
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: Though Texas did vote for Carter and Humphrey in their respective years, this is a state that threw Ann Richards out of office when they liked it for Dubya. Their judgment isn't the best in the world and McCain has this one locked up. Has anyone looked at a Texas ballot lately? Do they even list the Democratic presidential candidate any more?

UTAH (5 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: Romney
Conclusion: Since the state has only gone for the Democrat twice since 1948, I think we can safely assume this one goes to McCain.

VERMONT (3 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: A state that has embraced same-sex marriage and repeatedly votes to impeach Dubya on local and state levels isn't going to vote for McCain. A March poll shows Hillary ahead of him by 10 points and Obama ahead of him by an astounding 34 points.

VIRGINIA (13 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: Even though Virginia hasn't voted for a Democrat since LBJ, its changing demographics have really been to the Democrats' favor and they could turn a historically red state blue: If it's Obama anyway. He's beating McCain there by 6 points. Hillary is losing to McCain there by 3 points. Then again, they may resent her for saying their state is a small state that doesn't matter.

WASHINGTON (11 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: McCain
Conclusion: Though this state has gone Democratic for the past five elections, March polls shows Obama losing to McCain by 1 point and Hillary losing to McCain by 8 points. I can't believe this will be the case by November, though once again it's a state that Hillary has dissed as unimportant even though they even voted for Dukakis.

WEST VIRGINIA (5 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary: To be held May 13
GOP primary winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: The state has gone blue six out of the last 10 times. A March poll shows Clinton beating McCain by 5 and McCain beating Obama by 19. If Hillary wins the primary, watch how suddenly a mere 5 electoral votes will make it a "bigger" state than Missouri, Virginia, Wisconsin, etc. You don't have to be logical in the Clinton universe.

WISCONSIN (10 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: The past five elections, it has gone blue. In February polls, Obama only led McCain by 1 point while McCain cleans Hillary's clock by 12 points and that was before she dismissed it as unimportant. It's a swing.

WYOMING (3 ELECTORAL VOTES)

Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: Romney
Conclusion: From this state's bowels came Darth Cheney. No way it's going blue.