Electoral history and perspective 1
By Edward Copeland
(Ed. note: This post has been divided into two parts. Part 2 will appear later today. -- MJWS)
Now, I'm not going to waste any time trying to convince Carl how wrongheaded his blind support of Hillary Clinton is. That would be like trying to convince the crazies of Fred Phelps' Westboro, Kan., Baptist church that they are wrong to protest the funeral of fallen troops because they blame their deaths on their perception that the U.S. is too tolerant toward homosexuals.
However, I do want to go through all the states and their presidential election history to shoot down the argument by the Clinton campaign that their "big state" wins in Democratic primaries translate into them having a better shot at winning those same states in November than Obama would, when there are no closed primaries and everyone can vote. The sad fact is that since the GOP managed to pick McCain, this won't be the electoral cakewalk for the Dems that it should be for either Obama or Clinton.
ALABAMA (9 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: No Democrat will likely win the state in November since it hasn't voted Democrat since 1976. McCain won't lose just because he lost the primary.
ALASKA (3 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: Romney
Conclusion: No Democrat will likely win the state in November since it last voted for a Democrat in 1964. McCain won't lose just because he lost the primary.
ARIZONA (10 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion This could have been a potential swing state (it voted for Clinton's re-election) if not for the fact that McCain comes from there and won't likely lose.
ARKANSAS (6 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: This is the one state where Clinton might have a chance in the fall if she were the nominee, though I'd still give the edge to McCain since it's voted Republican recently whenever Bill wasn't the nominee.
CALIFORNIA (55 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: This one will got Democratic no matter who the nominee is. It voted for Bush 41 after the years of favorite son Reagan, but it's been blue ever since.
COLORADO (9 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: Romney
Last time state voted Democratic: 1992
Conclusion: This will be one of the key swing states due to its rapidly changing demographics and either Democrat has a good shot at putting it in their column. Bill Clinton won here in 1992, though McCain could still pull it out because of its usual GOP trands.
CONNECTICUT (7 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: While it's been reliably Democratic for the four presidential elections, prior to that the GOP took the previous five elections. It's worth remembering that this is also the state that sent Censorin' Joe back to the Senate as an independent and he's endorsed McCain. I still think either Dem will win, but it could be a close one whether it's Obama or Clinton.
DELAWARE (3 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: This is another state that is fairly reliably Democratic, not having went GOP since Bush 41. It even voted for Carter. I think either Dem should take this easily.
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (3 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: Hell, even if Mike Gravel were the Democratic nominee, the Dems would win this won. If they lost all 50 states, they'd still get D.C.
FLORIDA (27 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic primary winner: ????????
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: While Florida has been a close battleground in the past two presidential elections, it has only gone Democratic twice in the past 10 presidential elections, most recently for Clinton's re-election. It will probably be close again, but McCain's moderate enough (in appearance) and with popular Gov. Charlie Crist's backing, I have a feeling that Florida will land in the GOP column again.
GEORGIA (15 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: Bill Clinton couldn't even win re-election there against Bob Dole and aside from Clinton's first run and native son Jimmy Carter's two wins, Georgia has been solidly GOP in presidential elections (though in 1968, it went for the third party run of George Wallace). Still, Georgia is one of the Southern states that has been undergoing the biggest changes in its demographics and if you wanted to try to use primary results as a predictor of general election votes, Obama's 35 point victory over Hillary certainly portends a better shot at beating McCain there and 15 electoral votes in a close race is nothing to sneeze at.
HAWAII (4 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus: To be held May 16
Conclusion: It's not as much of a sure Democratic thing as D.C. (the state went for Reagan in 1984 and Nixon in 1972), but it's damn close.
IDAHO (4 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP primary: To be held May 27
Conclusion: 1964 is the only time since 1952 that Idaho went for the Democratic presidential candidate. You might as well call this the GOP D.C.
ILLINOIS (21 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: The Democrats have won this state the past four elections, but the GOP took it the six elections before that. Of course, it is Obama's home state but Hillary has strong roots there as well, though Obama still crushed her by 32 points. I guess 21 electoral votes make it a "small state."
INDIANA (11 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic and GOP primaries: To be held May 6
Conclusion: Even if Obama or Clinton put Evan Bayh on the ticket, it's doubtful any Democratic ticket will beat the GOP ticket. In recent polls, McCain wins handily there against either Democratic nominee.
IOWA (7 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: This is one of the definitions of a swing state. In the last 10 elections, it has gone GOP six times and Democratic four times. It's interesting that both Hillary and McCain finished third in the caucuses here (and McCain actually tied, a few votes behind Fred Thompson). Recent polls show Obama beating McCain there by 10 points while McCain beats Hillary there by 11 points. Iowa does have a historical reluctance to vote for female candidates statewide or for national office and the Dems may need those 7 votes to win.
KANSAS (6 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: Despite the popularity of its Democratic governor Kathleen Sebelius, this is among the reddest of red states, though Obama is surprisingly close (six points) to McCain in the state whereas Hillary loses to McCain by 24 points. Still, I imagine McCain wins in November regardless.
KENTUCKY (8 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic and GOP primary: May 20
Conclusion: Hard to call. The state voted for Carter once and Clinton twice, but it is usually reliably red and recent polls have McCain beating either Hillary or Obama handily.
LOUISIANA (9 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: This state bounces between both parties with amazing regularity. Current polling shows McCain beating either Obama or Clinton handily, but I think it could be winnable, especially if Obama is the nominee.
To be continued...
(Ed. note: This post has been divided into two parts. Part 2 will appear later today. -- MJWS)
Now, I'm not going to waste any time trying to convince Carl how wrongheaded his blind support of Hillary Clinton is. That would be like trying to convince the crazies of Fred Phelps' Westboro, Kan., Baptist church that they are wrong to protest the funeral of fallen troops because they blame their deaths on their perception that the U.S. is too tolerant toward homosexuals.
However, I do want to go through all the states and their presidential election history to shoot down the argument by the Clinton campaign that their "big state" wins in Democratic primaries translate into them having a better shot at winning those same states in November than Obama would, when there are no closed primaries and everyone can vote. The sad fact is that since the GOP managed to pick McCain, this won't be the electoral cakewalk for the Dems that it should be for either Obama or Clinton.
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: No Democrat will likely win the state in November since it hasn't voted Democrat since 1976. McCain won't lose just because he lost the primary.
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: Romney
Conclusion: No Democrat will likely win the state in November since it last voted for a Democrat in 1964. McCain won't lose just because he lost the primary.
Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion This could have been a potential swing state (it voted for Clinton's re-election) if not for the fact that McCain comes from there and won't likely lose.
Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: This is the one state where Clinton might have a chance in the fall if she were the nominee, though I'd still give the edge to McCain since it's voted Republican recently whenever Bill wasn't the nominee.
Democratic primary winner: Clinton
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: This one will got Democratic no matter who the nominee is. It voted for Bush 41 after the years of favorite son Reagan, but it's been blue ever since.
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: Romney
Last time state voted Democratic: 1992
Conclusion: This will be one of the key swing states due to its rapidly changing demographics and either Democrat has a good shot at putting it in their column. Bill Clinton won here in 1992, though McCain could still pull it out because of its usual GOP trands.
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: While it's been reliably Democratic for the four presidential elections, prior to that the GOP took the previous five elections. It's worth remembering that this is also the state that sent Censorin' Joe back to the Senate as an independent and he's endorsed McCain. I still think either Dem will win, but it could be a close one whether it's Obama or Clinton.
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: This is another state that is fairly reliably Democratic, not having went GOP since Bush 41. It even voted for Carter. I think either Dem should take this easily.
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: Hell, even if Mike Gravel were the Democratic nominee, the Dems would win this won. If they lost all 50 states, they'd still get D.C.
Democratic primary winner: ????????
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: While Florida has been a close battleground in the past two presidential elections, it has only gone Democratic twice in the past 10 presidential elections, most recently for Clinton's re-election. It will probably be close again, but McCain's moderate enough (in appearance) and with popular Gov. Charlie Crist's backing, I have a feeling that Florida will land in the GOP column again.
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: Bill Clinton couldn't even win re-election there against Bob Dole and aside from Clinton's first run and native son Jimmy Carter's two wins, Georgia has been solidly GOP in presidential elections (though in 1968, it went for the third party run of George Wallace). Still, Georgia is one of the Southern states that has been undergoing the biggest changes in its demographics and if you wanted to try to use primary results as a predictor of general election votes, Obama's 35 point victory over Hillary certainly portends a better shot at beating McCain there and 15 electoral votes in a close race is nothing to sneeze at.
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus: To be held May 16
Conclusion: It's not as much of a sure Democratic thing as D.C. (the state went for Reagan in 1984 and Nixon in 1972), but it's damn close.
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP primary: To be held May 27
Conclusion: 1964 is the only time since 1952 that Idaho went for the Democratic presidential candidate. You might as well call this the GOP D.C.
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: McCain
Conclusion: The Democrats have won this state the past four elections, but the GOP took it the six elections before that. Of course, it is Obama's home state but Hillary has strong roots there as well, though Obama still crushed her by 32 points. I guess 21 electoral votes make it a "small state."
Democratic and GOP primaries: To be held May 6
Conclusion: Even if Obama or Clinton put Evan Bayh on the ticket, it's doubtful any Democratic ticket will beat the GOP ticket. In recent polls, McCain wins handily there against either Democratic nominee.
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: This is one of the definitions of a swing state. In the last 10 elections, it has gone GOP six times and Democratic four times. It's interesting that both Hillary and McCain finished third in the caucuses here (and McCain actually tied, a few votes behind Fred Thompson). Recent polls show Obama beating McCain there by 10 points while McCain beats Hillary there by 11 points. Iowa does have a historical reluctance to vote for female candidates statewide or for national office and the Dems may need those 7 votes to win.
Democratic caucus winner: Obama
GOP caucus winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: Despite the popularity of its Democratic governor Kathleen Sebelius, this is among the reddest of red states, though Obama is surprisingly close (six points) to McCain in the state whereas Hillary loses to McCain by 24 points. Still, I imagine McCain wins in November regardless.
Democratic and GOP primary: May 20
Conclusion: Hard to call. The state voted for Carter once and Clinton twice, but it is usually reliably red and recent polls have McCain beating either Hillary or Obama handily.
Democratic primary winner: Obama
GOP primary winner: Huckabee
Conclusion: This state bounces between both parties with amazing regularity. Current polling shows McCain beating either Obama or Clinton handily, but I think it could be winnable, especially if Obama is the nominee.
To be continued...
Labels: 2008 election, 2008 primaries, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Democrats, Dick Cheney, Electoral College, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, U.S. history
posted by Edward Copeland at
8:08 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home