South Carolina goes to McCain

By Michael J.W. Stickings

With almost all precincts reporting, McCain leads Huckabee 33 to 30, with Thompson at 16, Romney at 15, and Paul and Giuliani way back at 4 and 2, respectively. (The updated results are here.)

So what to make of this?

McCain's victory is hardly a surprise. He lost to Bush in South Carolina in 2000, a defeat after a stirring New Hampshire victory that marked the beginning of the end of his campaign -- remember the vicious smearing of McCain by the Bush campaign? -- but he was polling well and had targeted the state as his major focus after New Hampshire. Let's go back to Scheiber's scenario for a McCain victory:

If McCain wins South Carolina, Huckabee and Fred Thompson are finished. (Thompson for obvious reasons, Huckabee because the state is about as ideal demographically as it's going to get for him. If he can't win there, where can he win?) I suspect Rudy is done, too, since he and McCain appeal to similar voters -- security hawks, social moderates -- and McCain will have all the momentum. That means a Romney-McCain playoff.

Well, not quite. Not yet.

Thompson may soon leave the race, but Huckabee did quite well, or at least somewhat better than my own expectations. South Carolina is a great state for Huckabee, given its (and his) social conservatism, but even in defeat he showed that he remains a viable -- and potentially quite dangerous -- candidate going forward. He won't win the race -- he needed to win South Carolina and to solidify and build on his social conservative support (although he did very well among evangelicals) -- but as long as he doesn't drop out and continues to campaign vigorously, he should keep the race something more than "a Romney-McCain playoff".

McCain will benefit the most from having Huckabee remain in the race. Ironically, a more decisive victory for McCain would have benefitted Romney -- who, I remain convinced, would do well against McCain in a head-to-head race. By squeaking out a narrow victory, and not putting Huckabee away, McCain actually helped himself. Although Romney's appeal is fairly broad, he has attracted a good deal of support from social conservatives (and the christianist right), and he needs them to win. Huckabee is of course the candidate of the christianist right, though, and his presence in the race as a viable candidate hurts Romney by taking potential support (and votes) away from him.

If it's now primarily a three-man race, there's also a fourth candidate to consider: Giuliani. I agree with Scheiber that McCain has emerged as the preferred candidate for "security hawks" and "social moderates," and I think that Giuliani's candidacy is basically over, but a surprise finish in Florida could propel him back into contention. And he is more likely to pull that off with a crowded field in place.

Ultimately, I think, it is a two-man race between Romney and McCain -- which means, I think, a Romney victory. But the result in South Carolina was just nuanced enough to keep it interesting. McCain proved he can win a tough primary in a solidly red state, Huckabee remains in contention with a formidable constituency behind him, Thompson did just well enough to make a decision more difficult (I think much of his support would go to McCain in the event he dropped out), Romney did just poorly enough to take some of the steam out of his victory in Nevada, and Giuliani benefits from the confusion of it all.

For more, make sure to read Dickerson's analysis of McCain's victory at Slate: He looks good, but he isn't the frontrunner yet.

And I still think it'll be Romney.

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Photo from the L.A. Times: