Romney has too much going for him to lose

By Michael J.W. Stickings

(An addendum to my recent post.)

At Slate, Dickerson reports on the emergence of Romney 4.0 (which is a lot like Romney 1.0). He's back to being "Mr. Fix-It," the pro-business enthusiast with an "almost total emphasis on using his business skills to fix the federal government". Now, I, like many others, would make the case that Romney is a man without a political core, a pandering demagogue, a flip-flopper, an unprincipled sham of a candidate willing to say whatever it takes to win over an audience -- and the electorate. Nonetheless, if there is any genuineness there at all, any consistency, anything that truly defines the man, it is his pro-business platform, and, more personally, his business skills.

Romney is, at his core, a CEO, or something like a CEO, a corporate manager of some sort. He is a man who can -- or at least thinks he can -- get things done. As he has reemerged as a legitimately strong candidate after Michigan, where he played this card to great success, he has been looking better than ever precisely because he has been showcasing his more genuine self. Romney the social conservative anti-jihadist was phony and opportunistic. Romney the pro-business deflater of bloated government is a real threat to capture the nomination.

The phoniness and opportunism are still there, however, and he hasn't given up saying whatever it takes to win. For example, he ran as an economic populist in economically depressed Michigan and he continues to run as a social conservative in right-wing states like South Carolina.

It is in Nevada, that bastion of frontier libertarianism, where he seems to be more himself, such as there is any real self to seem to be. In their recent endorsement of Romney, the editors of Nevada's largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, cited as key strengths Romney's "pro-growth policies," "extensive experience in the private sector," and quasi-libertarian positions on issues like school choice, noting as well that he has committed not to push a universal health care plan as president. Unlike their endorsement of Obama on the Democratic side, their endorsement of Romney was anything but flimsy.

So can he win? Yes.

Will he? I think so.

He should win Nevada, a McCain win in South Carolina would (ironically) benefit him by turning the race into a two-man affair, he should do well in the upcoming all-Republican primaries (where McCain, who has drawn much of his support from independents, will struggle), he has a lot of money, and the Republican establishment will back him over any of his rivals save for Thompson (who may drop out after South Carolina).

In addition to my previous post linked above, and to the links in that post, see the case for Romney made by Noam Scheiber at TNR's The Stump. Consider:

While grassroots evangelicals may have their doubts about him, the elite portion of the movement likes him just fine. Supply-siders seem swayed by his businessman cred while the hawks take comfort in his obsession with doubling Guantanomo and jihadist caliphates.

Now run through the practical scenarios:

If McCain wins South Carolina, Huckabee and Fred Thompson are finished. (Thompson for obvious reasons, Huckabee because the state is about as ideal demographically as it's going to get for him. If he can't win there, where can he win?) I suspect Rudy is done, too, since he and McCain appeal to similar voters -- security hawks, social moderates -- and McCain will have all the momentum. That means a Romney-McCain playoff.

If Huckabee wins South Carolina, Thompson is done and McCain is damaged goods, while Giuliani and(obviously) Huckabee are still alive. With his war chest, Romney should be able to sneak into the top two in Florida, and the person who falls to third -- Giuliani or Huckabee -- is probably done, too. That means a Romney-Huckabee/Giuliani playoff.

If Thompson somehow wins South Carolina, Huckabee is done, McCain is seriously damaged, and Romney has a great shot at first or second in Florida, since Thompson will have a steep hill to climb there.

The biggest risk to Romney is a fourth-place finish in South Carolina, which raises questions about his viability and sends him limping into Florida. That's probably why you see Romney continuing to run ads there even though he's ostensibly conceded the state.

Short of that, I'd say his prospects look pretty good -- or as good as they can in a race this wide open.

I'd say his prospects look very good. He is, in my view, the one to beat -- or, as they say, the race is his to lose. He will have to stumble badly in South Carolina, or McCain will have to run away with South Carolina, or Huckabee will have to rebound to win South Carolina, or Giuliani will have to turn his campaign around entirely, for his frontrunner status to be diminished. Even then, though, he would remain a formidable candidate in a tight race.

Right now, and looking ahead, he simply has too much going for him to lose.

Yes, Mitt Romney will be the 2008 Republican nominee for president.