Clinton and Romney win in Nevada

By Michael J.W. Stickings

The vote on the Republican side was decisive. With almost all precincts reporting, Romney has thrashed the competition with 51 percent of the vote. Paul and McCain are second and third with 14 and 13 percent, respectively. As I have argued in recent days -- see here and here -- the race is Romney's to lose, and this result in Nevada boosts his fortunes. (Though it ought to be noted that he was the only serious GOP contender to campaign aggressively in the state. McCain focused his efforts on South Carolina, as did Huckabee.)

**********

On the Democratic side, it was supposed to be a close (and bitter) three-person race. It wasn't close (but it was bitter). With almost all precincts reporting, Clinton has won the popular vote over Obama 51 to 45. Edwards, who was polling well, collapsed into a distant third place with just 4 percent of the vote. Here's the story in the Times:

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton won the Nevada caucuses on Saturday, capturing strong support from women voters and adding a fresh boost of momentum to her campaign as the Democratic presidential race heads to South Carolina, where she is engaged in a fierce battle with her rival, Senator Barack Obama.

Mrs. Clinton’s victory in Nevada – her second straight win over Mr. Obama – underscored her strength among Hispanic voters, who comprise a large share of the electorate in several upcoming states, as the campaign expands into a coast-to-coast series of 22 contests on Feb. 5.

And yet, such are the technicalities of American democracy, it is Obama who has oddly emerged with the most delegates, 13 to Clinton's 12. For more on this, see The Nation. At WaPo's The Fix, Chris Cillizza is reporting that "[b]oth the chairwoman of the Nevada Democratic Party and a senior adviser for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign are insisting that the contention that Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) won more delegates in today's caucus is incorrect". See also MSNBC, TPM, .

Kos sums it up well: "Ha ha ha. As if this thing couldn't get any more absurd... Hillary won the state. But under her earlier rules, all that mattered was the delegate count. So everyone wins. Or no one wins. Or whatever. Like I said, absurd."

**********

Trouble for Hillary, via CNN:

African Americans overwhelmingly voted for Barack Obama in the Nevada caucuses, just as they did in the Michigan Democratic primary last week -- a trend that could hurt Hillary Clinton in next Saturday's South Carolina primary, where black voters are expected to make up half the electorate.

Black voters made up 16 percent of Democratic Nevada caucus-goers -- and roughly 80 percent of them voted for Obama, according to entrance polls. Clinton won support from 16 percent of black voters.

Again, though, she did extremely well with women.

**********

Whatever the delegate count, this was nonetheless a solid performance for Clinton. She may lose in South Carolina next week, but, as with Romney on the other side, this is her race to lose. As long as she keeps it close in South Carolina, she should have significant momentum heading into Super Tuesday, when she should be able to put a good deal of distance between herself in the lead and Obama back in second. Obama, I think, had to win both Nevada and South Carolina decisively to turn the race around. That hasn't happened, and I just can't see how he manages to overcome both Clinton's national popularity and the advantages she has in key states like California and New York.

**********

Yup, they're back (photo from the NYT -- link above):