Conservatives win minority government
A brutal cold has put my flat on my back today, but here's a quick post on the results of today's federal election in Canada.
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I expected the race to tighten and for the results to be closer than the polls and the predictions, and, well, tighten it did and closer they are.
The Conservative Party has won a plurality of the seats in the House of Commons, 125 of 308, but it sits well short of a majority. There had been talk of as many as 145 or 150 seats.
This was a thoroughly anti-Liberal campaign, with the three opposition parties targeting Liberal corruption (the sponsorship scandal) and the desire for change (any change). Plus, I think that voter and media fatigue was a major factor. Simply, voters and the media had grown tired of Liberal rule (in place since 1993). Even the Toronto-based, Liberal-friendly national media warmed up to the Conservatives and their leader, Stephen Harper, now the next prime minister.
The Conservatives did well across the country (with the exception of British Columbia), including Quebec, but the Liberals withstood the Conservative surge in Ontario and remain the largest party in the country's largest province.
The New Democrats did well in British Columbia and Ontario.
The separatist Bloc Quebecois saw some of its support defect to the Conservatives, which is a good sign for federalism and national unity, but it remains a fairly strong third party.
And the Liberals? There was some concern that they would be reduced to 70 or 80 seats. In fact, they have won or are currently leading in over 100 ridings. The future of Prime Minister Paul Martin is uncertain -- and I do think the Liberal Party needs to use this defeat to reevaluate its platform, its strategy, and its leadership -- but they will be, as Martin just said in his concession speech, "a strong opposition". Let's hope so.
(Update: Martin has stepped down as Liberal leader.)
And so it stands. Canadians have voted to give the Conservative Party a chance to govern, to give Harper the opportunity to prove himself as prime minister. But Canada has given the new governing party and the new prime minister a small minority with which to work. It will need to reach out to the three opposition parties. It will not to able to push through a conservative agenda. There likely will not be another election anytime soon, but keep this in mind:
The Conservative Party, to repeat, won a plurality, not a majority, of seats in the House of Commons. In terms of the overall popular vote, only a minority of Canadians voted for the Conservative Party -- only 36.5 percent at present count. It deserves to have this chance to govern, but a majority of Canadians, a solid majority, voted for parties that are on the left or in the center of Canadian politics. Despite this Conservative victory, that is, the balance in Canadian politics remains just to the left of center and solidly liberal.
Canadians have elected a Conservative government, but Canada remains a liberal country.
**********
For all the latest results, head over to the CBC. As for me, I'm going back to bed.
**********
I expected the race to tighten and for the results to be closer than the polls and the predictions, and, well, tighten it did and closer they are.
The Conservative Party has won a plurality of the seats in the House of Commons, 125 of 308, but it sits well short of a majority. There had been talk of as many as 145 or 150 seats.
This was a thoroughly anti-Liberal campaign, with the three opposition parties targeting Liberal corruption (the sponsorship scandal) and the desire for change (any change). Plus, I think that voter and media fatigue was a major factor. Simply, voters and the media had grown tired of Liberal rule (in place since 1993). Even the Toronto-based, Liberal-friendly national media warmed up to the Conservatives and their leader, Stephen Harper, now the next prime minister.
The Conservatives did well across the country (with the exception of British Columbia), including Quebec, but the Liberals withstood the Conservative surge in Ontario and remain the largest party in the country's largest province.
The New Democrats did well in British Columbia and Ontario.
The separatist Bloc Quebecois saw some of its support defect to the Conservatives, which is a good sign for federalism and national unity, but it remains a fairly strong third party.
And the Liberals? There was some concern that they would be reduced to 70 or 80 seats. In fact, they have won or are currently leading in over 100 ridings. The future of Prime Minister Paul Martin is uncertain -- and I do think the Liberal Party needs to use this defeat to reevaluate its platform, its strategy, and its leadership -- but they will be, as Martin just said in his concession speech, "a strong opposition". Let's hope so.
(Update: Martin has stepped down as Liberal leader.)
And so it stands. Canadians have voted to give the Conservative Party a chance to govern, to give Harper the opportunity to prove himself as prime minister. But Canada has given the new governing party and the new prime minister a small minority with which to work. It will need to reach out to the three opposition parties. It will not to able to push through a conservative agenda. There likely will not be another election anytime soon, but keep this in mind:
The Conservative Party, to repeat, won a plurality, not a majority, of seats in the House of Commons. In terms of the overall popular vote, only a minority of Canadians voted for the Conservative Party -- only 36.5 percent at present count. It deserves to have this chance to govern, but a majority of Canadians, a solid majority, voted for parties that are on the left or in the center of Canadian politics. Despite this Conservative victory, that is, the balance in Canadian politics remains just to the left of center and solidly liberal.
Canadians have elected a Conservative government, but Canada remains a liberal country.
**********
For all the latest results, head over to the CBC. As for me, I'm going back to bed.
posted by Michael J.W. Stickings at
11:56 PM
3 Comments:
A result that I think everyone was expecting and can be reasonably happy with. The Liberals deserved less I guess but the fact that they stayed in triple digits and the gains by the NDP I think reflect the growing percentage of Canada's population that live in urban areas.
The other usual numbers that bug me is that the NDP garnered 17% of the total vote and ended up with 29 seats and BQ had 10% and end up with 51. I don't want to move to a full proportional system but this is wrong. The number of votes that get effectively wasted in our electoral system almost always creates problems like this. The riding system needs reform but are there options on the drawing board that fall between our curent setup and full proportional representation?
By
Anonymous, at 10:19 AM
I echo Dylan's reading of last night's results. Though I would have liked to seen a Liberal government myself, I think this was the best possible outcome for the country. The West is in, the Bloc looks increasingly irrelevant, we now have two competitive national political parties, and any tendencies of the new Conservatives to lean too far to the right are checked by the narrowness of Harper's majority. As for the Liberals, Paul Martin's decisive decision to resign means that the party will finally have a chance to heal the Chrétien-Martin rift and re-emerge revitalized in a years' time.
On electoral reform, Canada need not move to full-out list-based proportional representation as in Israel or Finland to correct some of the distortions caused by the first-past-the-post system. The Mixed-Member-Proportional system used in Germany, in which half the seats are elected on a riding-by-riding basis, and the other half on a list basis, produces a parliament that is highly representative of the popular vote shares of the parties. You can find out more about various electoral system alternatives from an excellent report by the Law Commission of Canada, available at http://www.lcc.gc.ca/about/voting_toc-en.asp
By
Vivek Krishnamurthy, at 1:35 PM
Wow, great link, thanks a lot!
By
Anonymous, at 8:53 PM
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