Tuesday, May 15, 2012

New poll shows some optimism on the economy

Some very interesting findings in a USA Today/Gallup Poll just released. Here's a summary of key points as reported by USA Today:

  • Though 71% rate economic conditions as poor, 58% predict they will be good a year from now.
  • While those surveyed tend to say that they are worse off than a year ago, nearly two-thirds think they'll be better off this time next year.
  • More than a third say they are better off than they were a year ago, the highest number since the economic meltdown in 2008.
  • Regardless of which candidate they support, those surveyed predict by a margin of 56% to 36% that Obama will win in November.
  • Romney's favourability numbers are up with a 50% to 41% margin to the good.
  • 55% say the economy would get better over the next four years if Romney won. 46% say that would happen if Obama won.
One takeaway has to be that Obama benefits if people are starting to feel better about the economy. Not surprised that Romney's favourability numbers are improving now that the freak show that was the GOP nomination battle is over.

Interesting number on the high percentage who think Obama will win, regardless of party affiliation. Not sure I like that. It's better when voters are frightened that their guy could lose.

What can we say? It's going to be close. It's early in the process.  But any indication that people are feeling better about the economy has to be good for the incumbent.

It's also clear that it will be essential that Obama's team hit Romney hard on the question of his record as a fiscal manager, as they are already starting to do.

Yet another poll. Sigh.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

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