New poll: Obama up by five in Ohio

By Michael J.W. Stickings

This eases my anxiety a bit:

Buoyed by early voting in his favor, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points in the pivotal state of Ohio, according to a new TIME poll.

Counting both Ohioans who say they will head to the polls on November 6, and those who have already cast a ballot, Obama holds a 49% to 44% lead over Romney in a survey taken Monday and Tuesday night.

There are any number of different scenarios for how the Electoral College could realistically play out, but one of the more likely ones is that it will all come down to Ohio, which would pretty much be the president's last stand should he lose the other key swing states to Romney. Indeed, Nate Silver finds that Ohio has a 50-50 chance of deciding the election.

And it's nail-bitingly close there. The Time poll is promising, but the RCP average is just Obama +2.1, with a couple of recent polls showing a tie.

Crap. There's my anxiety flaring up again.