Don't panic

By Mustang Bobby

When the Pew Poll came out on Monday and showed Mitt Romney ahead of President Obama, you could have heard the feathers fluttering all over the place; Democrats freaking and Republicans crowing. Yes, it's a narrow race. Yes, it's because of the debate. But like I said yesterday, it's what was expected, and the great guru of all that is poll-y, Nate Silver, said it was bound to happen. In fact, he would have been surprised had it not:

Polling data is often very noisy, and not all polls use equally rigorous methodology. But the polls, as a whole, remain consistent with the idea that they may end up settling where they were before the conventions, with Mr. Obama ahead by about two points. Such an outcome would be in line with what history and the fundamentals of the economy would lead you to expect.

[...]

In some ways, then, the election might not be quite so unpredictable as it appears. There was reason to believe that Mr. Obama's numbers would fade some after his convention — and the first debate has quite often been a time when the challenger drew the race closer.

He still gives Mr. Obama a 75–25 percent chance of winning, which is narrower than before but right in line with the last time an incumbent won re-election: 2004.

P.S.: Gallup has Obama up by five. Feel better now, Andrew?

(Cross-posted at Bark Bark Woof Woof.)