Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Jewish-Americans back Obama


One thing I remember reading just after the 2008 presidential campaign was the approach the Obama team took to minimize the size of a loss in a given constituency. Rather than write off a group or a region they knew they weren't going to win, they would try to get some of the vote there. It's not as obvious as it sounds. Some campaigns choose to reserve scarce resources by basically ignoring voters they don't feel they can sway.

Maybe, in thinking about his visit to Israel, Romney and his team read the same book, because it certainly doesn't look like they're going to win amongst Jewish-American voters, at least not according to a recent Gallup poll:

While Republicans may look favorably on Romney's visit to Israel, another group with keen interest in U.S.-Israeli relations -- Jewish Americans -- solidly backs Obama in the election.

Gallup Daily tracking from June 1-July 26 finds Jewish registered voters favoring Obama over Romney by 68% to 25%. That is essentially the same as Gallup's prior update on Jewish voting preferences.

Although one goal of Romney's Israel visit could be to attract greater support among Jewish voters in the U.S., Jewish Americans have been a traditionally strong Democratic group, so they are unlikely to become much more supportive of Romney regardless of the outcome of the trip.

Of course, rather than swaying significant Jewish vote at home, it might be about something entirely different, as Gallup writes, in discussing a potential goal of Mitt Romney's visit:

The visit's main effect may be to largely shape voters' views about Romney's ability to relate to foreign leaders and to conduct himself on an international stage. And there is room for Romney to improve in that respect, given that Americans currently view Obama as significantly better able than Romney to handle foreign affairs.

I don't know. Does Mitt Romney really think this tour actually helped him close that gap with President Obama?

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

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