Behind the Ad: Attacks against Tim Kaine and Obama in Virginia

By Richard K. Barry

Who: Crossroads GPS (a.k.a. Karl Rove) on behalf of Republican Senate candidate George Allen.

Where: Virginia.

What's going on: Karl Rove's super PAC, Crossroads GPS, has produced ads to tie Democratic Senate candidate Tim Kaine to President Obama. The ad says they are both all about "reckless spending, red ink, and higher taxes." Allen, the Republican, in a race with no incumbent, even has billboards up calling Kaine "Obama's Senator, Not Virginia's."

Kaine doesn't seem all that concerned, saying:

It's time we reject this type of divisive politics. If you want a Senator who'll partner with the President to do what's best for the nation, I'm your guy.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about this race is that everyone knows it will be very close. Most polls are within the margin of error. Both candidates are very well known in the state. There's not a lot of room to move votes between the two of them. Importantly, it will be a very hotly contested swing state for the presidential election with 13 electoral votes at stake, which means that the fate of these two Senate candidates may be tied to the presidential campaigns in a way even more pronounced than elsewhere. In other words, the margin of victory is almost certainly going to driven by the presidential candidate's coattails. As one observer put it:

"By election day, the Obama campaign will dwarf the Virginia Democratic Party itself and its infrastructure," says Quentin Kidd, a professor at Christopher Newport University and a Virginia political pollster. "Your ability as Tim Kaine, US Senate candidate, no matter how well positioned you are, you aren't well positioned enough to dominate the agenda that the Obama campaign is going to impose on Virginia. And I assume the Romney campaign is going to try to do the same thing."

Obama won the state by a 52.7-46.4% margin over John McCain. Bush won it convincingly over Kerry in 2004 (53.8%-45.6%). Current polling is close as well.

So, I suppose Karl Rove and his super PAC is cutting right to the chase by making no distinction between Kaine and Obama. Two for the price of one, that sort of thing. He may rue that decision.

Here's the ad:

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)