Friday, May 04, 2012

The Electoral College system - how boring


By Richard K. Barry

There will be countless state-by-state polls between now and election day comparing President Obama's support to that of Mitt Romney's. And though it's basic political science, it's remarkable how few voters fully understand the Electoral College system and its, mostly, winner-take-all design. Get 51% of the vote in any given state (except a couple) and it's like every single person in that state voted for you. Get 49% and it's as if no one did. When it's a populous state, with many electoral votes, the implications are massive.

So, it's essential to pay close attention to state-level predictions in heavily populated so-called swing states, i.e., states that could go either way. Win by a hair in Florida and get a whack of electoral votes, as you will recall from 2000. Lose by a hair and, well, ask Al Gore.

In the current analysis, some of these swing states may be considered leaning towards supporting Obama or Romney. Some may be simply right on the line. But if they are in play at all, especially if they are rich in electoral votes, count on both campaigns spending heavily in time and money in them.

Wisconsin, which leans towards Obama, has just been polled by Marquette University. The poll finds that the president is ahead by a margin of 51-42% up from 48-43% in March. Obama's approval rating went up slightly from 48% to 50%, as did Romney's, which went up to 33% from a low of 27% in February. That's what makes it a state leaning towards Obama.

New polls by Quinnipiac have President Obama ahead of Romney in Ohio by a 44-42% margin, and Romney leading the president 44-43% in Florida, two states widely considered toss-ups. Obama leads Romney by a 47-39% margin in Pennsylvania, a state clearly leaning in the president's direction.

Available electoral votes in each of these states are: Wisconsin (10); Ohio (18); Florida (29); and Pennsylvania (20). Those are pretty chunky numbers in the world of electoral vote counting.

270 electoral votes are needed to win.

It's easy for one's eyes to glaze over with all the numbers, but that's the way the game is played. Fail to understand this, and you are really not grasping the contours of the election ahead of us. I'm just sayin'.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

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posted by Richard K. Barry at 8:30 AM

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2 Comments:

  • Presidential elections don't have to be this way.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in more than 3/4ths of the states that now are just 'spectators' and ignored after the primaries.

    When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.

    The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.

    In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: AZ – 67%, CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.

    The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes - 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.

    NationalPopularVote
    Follow National Popular Vote on Facebook via NationalPopularVoteInc

    By Blogger toto, at 2:17 PM  

  • I appreciate the comment.

    By Blogger Richard K. Barry, at 3:36 PM  

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