An October Surprise: Will Israel attack Iran?
By Ali Ezzatyar
The question of whether Israel
or America will attack Iran has had a
shelf life that is unheard of in international affairs, and the factors that
weigh on a yes or no answer to the question have changed surprisingly little
over the last ten years. But there is
one variable that could alter everything this year: November.
Prior to, and in the early stages of the Iraq War, there was the notion in foreign policy
circles that America could
launch a military attack on Iran
itself. America had an
interventionist president driven by perceived ideals that made Iran seem like
a perfect target. Such an attack would have been primarily designed to ensure
the failure of Iran's
nuclear program; the larger question was whether George W. Bush would try to
take it all a step further and force regime change in Tehran. These were ideas being discussed as
early as 2002; it wouldn't be farfetched to say an attack on Iran felt as
imminent then as it does now.
The more "Mission Accomplished" became the biggest American
foreign policy quagmire in generations, however, the less likely an American
attack became. And somewhere around when the 3000th American
military serviceperson was killed in Iraq,
the idea that America could
attack Iran
for any reason had vanished into seeming impossibility. Until now, the ongoing
instability in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with the 2008 election of a
president critical of recent American interventionism, continues to hamstring any notion that the United
States could embark on a military venture against
a bigger, more powerful, more complicated Iranian foe.
It was about the same time, during
Iraq's most tumultuous moments of
the last decade, that talk of a unilateral Israeli strike became
prevalent. Israel has
always been considered the primary beneficiary of such an attack, and
hence the
idea that their highly capable military could go it alone was always
feasible although not preferable to an overwhelming American strike.
Until recently, however, there was the notion that Israel
would not act without America's
approval. This was because the success-to-repercussions ratio
for Israel was poor, but also because the chaos of
war in Iraq and Afghanistan made intervention in Iran dangerous to
America,
Israel's
most important ally, no matter who the attacking party was.
And since George W. Bush was seen as one of the most
Israel-friendly presidents ever, America's
hamstring was necessarily Israel's.
The logic was that if Israel
attacked Iran without America's go-ahead and help, America could
get dragged into a third war, which could ultimately serve to tarnish U.S.-Israeli
relations permanently. George W. Bush was thought to have put his neck on the
line sufficiently for Israel,
and we assumed then and know now that he drew a red line around Iran. A third
war in the Middle East for George W. Bush would have been disastrous, even more
definitively writing off George W. Bush as one of America's worst presidents,
and ensuring failure in the 2008 presidential elections for any Republican
candidate. After Obama's election, the writing was well and clearly on the wall
for Israel: we are not
attacking Iran,
and neither are you.
So why the history lesson?
If the foregoing is mostly true, I think we can draw two important
conclusions:
First, not enough has changed elsewhere to make an
American attack on Iran
any more likely in the short term as it was five years ago. Afghanistan is increasingly unstable while Iraq's
direction remains a huge question mark. Furthermore, Pakistan has come to resemble more
and more an ally-turned-enemy, and any fallout from a breakdown in relations
there could be catastrophic. There is just too much risk involved with an
attack on Iran.
To the contrary, and more importantly, this is the most
temperate climate for an Israeli attack on Iran we have seen. There are some
obvious reasons, such as unprecedented Iranian isolation, Iran's
reportedly nearing critical stages in its nuclear development, and recent
accusations of assassinations of Israelis abroad. But there is something much
more profound from an Israeli perspective.
A plurality of Israelis believe that Barack Obama is the
least Israel-friendly president in American history. They harbor suspicions about his
intentions in the region and generally believe he may abandon Israel in ways unprecedented to
presidents before him.
An attack on Iran
this year is unquestionably dangerous to Obama's reelection. There is no
scenario where a unilateral attack by Israel will not hurt Obama's
chances. We probably do not need to discuss how a failed attack, the most
likely scenario of a unilateral Israeli strike according to most analysts,
would be disastrous for U.S. interests and the president personally. But even a successful
Israeli attack would wreak havoc on financial markets, on American interests in
the region, and portray Obama as a man with no control over a key region
for U.S. interests. This is the most likely scenario for an unlikely Republican
win in November 2012.
Even if the American public is critical of an Israeli
strike, the hawkish Republican candidate-turned-president, who has been
distinguishing himself all year long on the principle of being forceful with Iran, comes to power with Israel's
interests in mind. It is win-win for Israel.
If Israel waits long enough to ensure there is no sanction
from an Obama administration for its attacking Iran, but not until after the
elections themselves, it can both perform an operation it has been planning for
years, and one which it sees as vital to its long-term survival, while
supplanting the president of its largest benefactor that it wants to see gone
anyway. Could Israel
be planning an October, or perhaps August / September surprise? It wouldn't be
the first time Iran has been
used to win a U.S.
election. (Remember this one?)
Labels: 2008 election, Afghan War, George W. Bush, Iran, Iraq War, Israel, Middle East, Pakistan
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