NFL 2011: Week 17 picks

By Michael J.W. Stickings

So here we are. The last week of the season. Alas.

On the one hand, it means the playoffs are coming up, and after a long (and weird) regular season it's time to move on (not least because my beloved Steelers are, thankfully, playoff-bound, as either the second or fifth seed in the AFC). On the other hand, we're nearing the end of the season, and facing a long offseason, and even thinking about not having football makes me depressed. (I know the NFL never sleeps. Yes, a lot goes on in the offseason, and once the season's over I'll start focusing on the draft. Still, there's nothing like the real thing.)

Anyway, I don't have much time to do much in the way of analysis. I didn't even do a Week 16 post, what with most of the games falling on Christmas Eve. (I'm writing this on Saturday, New Year's Eve, the games tomorrow.) But let's get going. Our Week 17 picks are below, but first we need to play catch up to bring us right up to date.

(As you may know, my associate editor Richard, a friend of ours nicknamed Comfortable Kid, and I are tracking our picks this year, with posts going up each Sunday at 11 am. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty.)

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Here's how we were doing after Week 15:

Week 15 

MJWS: 10-6 (plus upset, minus lock) = 10 points

RKB: 9-7 (plus upset, minus lock) = 9 points
The Kid: 8-8 (minus lock) = 6 points

Yeah, we all took the Packers as our lock. Who knew?

Season through Week 15

RKB: 155-69 (10 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 169 points
MJWS: 153-71 (7 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 159 points
The Kid: 140-84 (7 upsets right, 5 locks wrong) = 144 points

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Here were our picks last week (Week 16):

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Houston, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Kansas City, New England, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, Washington, Carolina, Baltimore, San Diego, Dallas, San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay.

No way the Pack were going to lose two in a row.

Upset of the Week: Buffalo.

After getting tamed by Brady and Co. at home the week before, Tebow-time grinds to a halt in Western NY. (Yeah, I got this one right.)

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Houston, Denver, Arizona, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Miami, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, Carolina, Baltimore, San Diego, San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans.

Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh

Upset of the Week: Miami

Denver over Buffalo at Buffalo, and that is the part that makes it tricky, Buffalo this time of year. Tebow can't throw at the best of times, but if the weather is bad, well, you get it. It'll be up to Tim to run with the rock. I guess I'm assuming that he'll be able to do that enough to win.

I'm picking Arizona over the Bengals. The Cardinals have won six of their last seven, and Arizona still has Fitzgerald. The Bengals do have the better defense, I just like Arizona to keep on winning.

Jacksonville over Tennessee. As bad as Jacksonville is at throwing the ball, their D will shut down Tennessee's passing game. Don't have a great answer on this, but I think Jacksonville wins.

Chiefs over the Raiders. Chiefs have been all over the map this year, but they are pulling together at the right time.

Miami over New England. You heard me. Miami has done right by me in this little game picking exercise and New England doesn't scare anybody these days. Miami in my upset.

Pittsburgh over St. Louis. Yes.

Philadelphia will beat Dallas. I like the Eagles right now and think that Romo will tank. I need to believe this, mind you.

I'm taking Washington over Minnesota. Rex Grossman is hot and cold, but I'm guessing he has a good game.

Carolina over the Bucs, because the Bucs are just bad right now.

Baltimore will beat Cleveland, but I won't say its obvious, not after Thursday's Indy win.

San Diego over Detroit may be a stretch, but the Chargers are playing well and Detroit is not as good as advanced billing.

San Francisco should beat Seattle and Green Bay is not going to lose to Chicago, same with New Orleans over Atlanta.

Finally, my Giants should beat the Jets just on the off chance that there is a god and he will want to shut Rex Ryan up.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Houston, Denver, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Kansas City, New England, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, Washington, Carolina, Baltimore, San Diego, Dallas, San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay.

Packers are humbled and Chicago is playing their 2nd-string QB, 3rd-string RB. Depending on what happens with San Francisco, I would be careful with Aaron Rodgers here. We might see him finish his day after the first half against this pass rush.

Upset of the Week: None

I don't have one this week. By the rules that govern what's defined as a potential upset, I can't see any teams upsetting. Unfortunately, I can't just jot down "Denver" here anymore. People seem to be believing a bit in Tebow and the Broncos, but I bet that fades after we finish celebrating the birthday of Tebow's best buddy. From what I hear, Jesus seemed like a nice guy and all, but did anyone see that first TD Tim scored last week against New England? Love that guy.

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Here's how we're doing after Week 16:

Week 16

MJWS: 11-5 (plus upset) = 13 points

The Kid: 10-6 = 10 points

RKB: 9-7 = 9 points

Season through Week 16

RKB: 164-76 (10 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 178 points
MJWS: 164-76 (8 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 172 points
The Kid: 150-90 (7 upsets right, 5 locks wrong) = 154 points

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Here are today's games:

Detroit at Green Bay

San Francisco at St. Louis

N.Y. Jets at Miami

Chicago at Minnesota

Buffalo at New England

Carolina at New Orleans

Washington at Philadelphia

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Tennessee at Houston

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Kansas City at Denver

San Diego at Oakland

Seattle at Arizona

Dallas at N.Y. Giants

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Detroit, San Francisco, N.Y. Jets, Chicago, New England, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Atlanta, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Denver, San Diego, Seattle, N.Y. Giants.

Fantasy is over -- and, yes, I won my hardcore league (woo-hoo!) -- but this is anything but a throwaway week for the NFL. A lot matters. I'll let Bill Simmons explain...

Okay, got that? Mostly, it's just about playoff seeding. Both the Steelers and Ravens will be in the playoffs, for example, but the AFC North title is at stake today. The two teams are tied, with the Ravens holding the tiebreaker, but a Pittsburgh win along with a Baltimore loss means the division goes to the Steelers. (I don't think that'll happen. I'm taking the Ravens over the Bengals.) And the difference between winning the losing the division is huge. The team that wins will likely have the #2 seed and a first-round bye, while the team that ends up second will have the #5 seed, meaning a wild card game out west in Denver or Oakland. The Raiders aren't great, but do you really want to go up against Tebow and the strong Broncos D at this point? I'd much rather have the week off and then (likely) play Houston in the next round.

But there are still a couple of playoff positions to determine. Will Denver or Oakland win the AFC West and get that #4 seed in the AFC? Will the Bengals or Jets be the second AFC wild card? And, of course, will the Cowboys or Giants, facing each other in today's even more overhyped than usual Sunday night game, win the always overhyped NFC East and grab the NFC's #4 seed? (My answers: Denver, Cincinnati, Giants.)

Lock of the Week: New England.

It's usually hard to know what to do with the elite teams the last week of the season because most of them end up resting their starters. But not so much this year. New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, San Francisco... they're all still playing for something.

The exceptions are Houston (not really an elite team, but close), which has the #3 AFC seed all sown up (to its benefit, as it needs to rest its top offensive stars, Foster and Johnson), and of course Green Bay, which is the top team in the NFC.

Anyway, I'll go with the Pats here. They should be able to beat the Bills at home in an early game (and then wait to see how the Ravens and Steelers do later). The Niners at Rams is also a solid lock, and I suspect the Falcons will crush the Bucs (unless Detroit wins and Atlanta ends up resting its starters).

Upset of the Week: Tennessee.

Now here's where it gets interesting. I've been tempted all week to go with Detroit over Green Bay (that is, over Green Bay's second-, third-, and fourth-string units). And I think the Lions have to win to keep the #5 seed over the Falcons, who are a game back (and who will likely beat Tampa).

But what about the Titans? They still have something to play for, and they're playing the Texans, who don't.

Or the Bengals? I'm going with the Ravens there, but a Cincy win would hardly be all that surprising.

Or the Cowboys? I'm going with the Giants there, but you know that'll be a tough game, and, if Romo can play through his injury, potentially a high-scoring affair that Dallas can win.

Or, you know what, the Colts? Yes, the friggin' Colts. You have to give them some credit, they're still playing hard and doing their best not to Suck for Luck (maybe out of justifiably deferential respect for Peyton, whom the players seem to want back in 2012).

I need to make up six points against Richard this week. That's not likely, but it means I need to take some risks, including with my upset. Ah, let's go with the Titans.

(I'm already stressing too much: Jets-Fins? Bears-Vikes? Bolts-Raiders? Hawks-Cards? Tough games to pick, and I'm going back and forth on all of 'em.)

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Detroit, San Francisco, Miami, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Atlanta, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, N.Y. Giants.

Lock of the Week: San Francisco.

Upset of the Week: Detroit.

Detroit over Green Bay: Given that the Pack have clinched the No. 1 seed, it's unlikely they will play their heavy hitters. I guess this could also mean the Lions could sit Stafford and Johnson, but I doubt they will. My guess is that it's Detroit over the Green Bay scrubs.

San Francisco over St. Louis: The Niners will be playing to lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC. That's all we need to know. Probably no Bradford in this is one either, which puts an exclamation point on the prediction.

Miami over the New York Jets: I really thought the Jets sucked against the Giants last week, especially Mark Sanchez. On top of that, Miami did give New England a hard time. The Jets are playing for a long-shot playoff spot, but I think they've already packed it in. Miami may have given up on their post-season hopes many months ago, but they've played well lately and seem to have some pride in what they're doing.

Minnesota over Chicago: Chicago is playing with McCown at QB and Kahlil Bell at RB. Got it?

New England over Buffalo: A win secures home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for New England. And then there is that little of matter of avenging the earlier loss to the Bills.

New Orleans over Carolina: Yes, Cam Newton is very good, but the Saints could be playing for the No. 2 seed depending on the 49er game. Brees is pretty fired up after last week's record setting week. Gotta think they'll beat Cam and team.

Philadelphia over Washington: Still can't believe I picked the Eagles to go all the way this year. I guess I bought the hype. Good to see that great individual talent isn't enough and that team cohesion means something. Having said that, Vick is healthy and the Eagles are going to want to go out with a win, more than the Redskins.

Jacksonville over Indianapolis: Playing for the No. 1 overall pick. Not the kind of thing you want to be doing. Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to run all over Indy, though the Colts can surprise. With two teams as bad as these, who knows? I say Jacksonville.

Tennessee over Houston: The Titans need a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Texans are playing for nothing, which means they could rest their starters. If they do, and I think they will, I predict a close game that Tennessee wins.

Atlanta over Tampa Bay: The Falcons are playing for playoff positioning so will show up. Tampa Bay? What can we say? Let it end soon, please.

Baltimore over Cincinnati: Should be close. Baltimore is trying to clinch the AFC North and No. 2 seed. Cincinnati has that good "D." You never know which Ravens team will show up, but I'm guessing the good one for this game.

Pittsburgh over Cleveland: The Steelers are also playing for a shot at the AFC North title. Big Ben will likely get a rest, but they don't need him to beat Cleveland.

Denver over Kansas City: I've toyed with loving Tebow, but can't do it. Did we see the real Timbo last week? Perhaps. Kyle Orton will want this one, a chance to beat the team that gave up on him.

San Diego over Oakland: Rivers hasn't played that well of late, but I like him to pull this one out. Oakland may still be in the hunt, but I see them coming up short. Just a feeling.

Seattle over Arizona: Two teams with nothing to play for, always fun games to pick. Seattle can impress every now and then. Skelton has done okay for the Cards. I don't know, or care.

New York Giants over Dallas Cowboys: The Giants are starting to run the ball well, and that has been the missing piece all year. When Bradshaw is in the lineup and running well, Jacobs runs well too, and Eli is a better passer. Speaking of Eli, great job last week against the Jets. Look for Jason Pierre-Paul to have a monster game for the G-Men. This kid just keeps getting better and with so much on the line, he'll have a breakout game. But I have no doubt it will be close, close enough to kill me.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Green Bay, San Francisco, Miami, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Houston, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Denver, San Diego, Arizona, N.Y. Giants.

Lock of the Week: New England.

Upset of the Week: Cincinnati.

Baltimore seems to be shakier on the road. I think the Bengals win here.