The Great Santorum Surge of December 2011

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Don't laugh.

Well, fine, go ahead.

Done? Okay.

Last week, I wrote that Rick Santorum will be the 2012 Republican nominee for president. I wasn't being serious, of course, but there's no denying Santorum's upward momentum, at least in Iowa, where he's left Perry and Bachmann behind and is now challenging Gingrich for third. (One poll, from Rasmussen (not the most credible pollster, but still), has him ahead of Newt.) And he's revving up the attacks on those ahead of him, particularly Ron Paul. For Santorum and his supporters, it's an exciting time indeed.

Who knows? Maybe he can win the damn thing. Or come damn close.

Yes, with Newt collapsing, Santorum could well finish third in Iowa, where what matters is appealing to (and turning out) a tiny fraction of the electorate (with even the vast majority of Republicans staying home from the caucuses), but even with a bit of a boost coming from such a relatively strong showing, that would be the end of the line for him. While he has understandably focused almost exclusively on Iowa, he has little to no organization anywhere else and remains for the most part a fringe candidate even in the right-wing Republican Party. He certainly has the conservative bona fides to appeal to much of the primary-voting base, but he's just too deranged for the establishment and too unelectable for the elites. Which is why he's never been taken seriously as a possible nominee. And why in national polls he remains a distant sixth.

So why is he surging? Obviously, he's benefitting from Newt's sudden fall and from a field that is, as we keep saying, embarassingly weak. And in Iowa, where he's got a fairly big name (prominent campaign, a couple of big-time endorsements), where else at this point are conservatives, and especially the social conservatives so prevalent in that state, to turn?