Newt overtakes Mitt: Let the Apocalypse begin!

By Michael J.W. Stickings 

Via twitter: 

Gingrich now ahead of Romney in Gallup national tracking poll, 31-27. (link)

-- Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight)

On the one hand, I give up. How is this possible? Are Republicans really stupid enough to nominate Newt Gingrich -- a loathsome and widely unpopular buffoon, bully, and hypocrite?

On the other hand, it makes perfect sense, doesn't it? Far more than Mitt, and perhaps as much as any other in his party, Newt is in touch with the Republican Party zeitgeist of 2012, which is mostly about taking down Obama (while also advancing a far-right agenda, of course).

When Mitt calls Obama a European socialist and otherwise blames him for all of America's ills, he comes across like an inauthentic politico pandering for votes. But when Newt goes on the anti-Obama rampage, he comes across as the voice of genuine vitriol and rage, channelling the dark side of the GOP, venting the anger and frustration, much of it rooted in racism (that uppity black man in the White House!), that drives so many Republicans these days. It's not so much that anti-Romney Republicans think Romney is a moderate, though that's certainly part of it, it's that they think he's not tough enough to stand up to Obama, particularly in the debates, and to put this (black) anti-American socialist elitist traitor in his place.

Newt has the conservative cred that Mitt sorely lacks, to be sure, but Newt's key selling point is that he'll do what Republicans so badly want done. He'll punch Obama in the face. He'll bloody his nose. He'll knock him out. No one thinks Newt's a saint. No one thinks he's not without serious baggage. But apparently a lot of Republicans, unhappy with Mitt and eager for someone, anyone to speak for them, are willing to overlook his transgressions, and even his deep unpopularity.

I'm not saying it'll last. Assuming no one else greets in the race and that there isn't a brokered convention, I still think Romney is the heavy favorite to win the nomination. He's just got too much money and too good an organization, not to mention the support of the party establishment, to let it slip away, and already we're setting the anti-Newt machine in action in full swing. It let down after it seemed to destroy Newt before Iowa. Now it's back.

But for now at least, Newt is on top, leading in Florida and possibly even nationally. This may be his peak, and it may all be downhill from here, but there's a good reason Republicans are showing him some love.

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UPDATE: For what it's worth, Rasmussen also has Gingrich up nationally, 35 to 28 over Romney.