NFL 2011: Week 15 picks
So... Week 15. Where did the time go?
I won't offer much commentary now -- I'm writing this Saturday night, watching the Dallas-Tampa game (an easy one for the Cowboys), and I'm hoping to get to The Tree of Life tonight -- but I may add some updates later today during the games.
Needless to say, I'm focused on the Steelers tomorrow night in San Francisco, a game that normally would be one of the year's highlights but that finds the Steelers in a tough spot with tough decisions to make. Consider:
The Steelers and Ravens are currently tied atop the AFC North at 10-3, but Baltimore holds the tiebreaker, having won both games against Pittsburgh this year. The Ravens play the Chargers this evening. If they win, they should have the division all sown up, with games remaining against the Browns and Bengals. Cincinnati is still in the playoff hunt and could put up a fight on the last weekend of the regular season, but I see the Ravens winning out.
If the Steelers are thinking that way, and they should be, they should rest their injured players on Monday. Even with a loss, they'd be in the #1 wild card spot, meaning the fifth seed in the AFC. The way it looks now, they'd go to Denver to play the Tebowners, who will likely win the AFC West but finish behind the other three division winners. That's hardly an ideal situation, but the reality is that the Steelers likely won't win their division and need to prepare themselves for the playoffs as a wild card team. Harrison is already out with his ridiculous one-game suspension as Roger Goodell's scapegoat (McCoy was a runner and Harrison tackled him. Period.) Woodley, their other great OLB, missed several games with a bad hamstring and had to leave last week's game early. Pouncey, their great young center, has been ruled out. And Roethlisberger, of course, has an ankle injury and, should he play, would be severely limited and at risk to be knocked out for the season.
So why risk it on Monday? The Steelers can still make it a competitive game with their backups at those positions. It just doesn't make any sense to go all out for a win.
Unless...
Well, unless the Ravens lose. Then a Steelers win over the 49ers would put them in the driver's seat to win the division, with remaining games against the lowly Rams and Browns, two games they should win. And finishing first in the division, with a shot at finishing first in the conference, or at least in the top two, which would mean a first-round bye, would be huge for them. Even finishing third, if it came to that, would mean a home playoff game against the sixth seed, likely the Jets or Bengals.
So there's a lot to lose but also a lot to win. And it all depends, in my view, on how the Ravens do today. Or, rather, it should depend on how the Ravens do. I'm certainly not saying Pittsburgh should roll over and lose. I know they'd play hard no matter what -- and, again, even with their backups they could beat San Francisco (though I worry about Batch starting at QB, as I'm just not sure if he could get the offence going against such a strong defensive team). What I'm saying is that they shouldn't be stupid. They need Big Ben in particular for the playoffs. Why risk it?
Okay, the picks...
As you may know, my associate editor Richard, a friend of ours nicknamed Comfortable Kid, and I are tracking our picks this year, with posts going up each Sunday at 11 am. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty.
I'm a few weeks behind in tracking the picks, but I'm pretty sure Richard is still ahead by a fairly big margin. I'll do an update later today.
**********
Okay, it's Saturday, December 24, Week 16. I'm finally getting around to updating the standings, going week by week. Here's how things stood after Week 14:
Last week
RKB: 14-2 (plus upset) = 16 points
I won't offer much commentary now -- I'm writing this Saturday night, watching the Dallas-Tampa game (an easy one for the Cowboys), and I'm hoping to get to The Tree of Life tonight -- but I may add some updates later today during the games.
Needless to say, I'm focused on the Steelers tomorrow night in San Francisco, a game that normally would be one of the year's highlights but that finds the Steelers in a tough spot with tough decisions to make. Consider:
The Steelers and Ravens are currently tied atop the AFC North at 10-3, but Baltimore holds the tiebreaker, having won both games against Pittsburgh this year. The Ravens play the Chargers this evening. If they win, they should have the division all sown up, with games remaining against the Browns and Bengals. Cincinnati is still in the playoff hunt and could put up a fight on the last weekend of the regular season, but I see the Ravens winning out.
If the Steelers are thinking that way, and they should be, they should rest their injured players on Monday. Even with a loss, they'd be in the #1 wild card spot, meaning the fifth seed in the AFC. The way it looks now, they'd go to Denver to play the Tebowners, who will likely win the AFC West but finish behind the other three division winners. That's hardly an ideal situation, but the reality is that the Steelers likely won't win their division and need to prepare themselves for the playoffs as a wild card team. Harrison is already out with his ridiculous one-game suspension as Roger Goodell's scapegoat (McCoy was a runner and Harrison tackled him. Period.) Woodley, their other great OLB, missed several games with a bad hamstring and had to leave last week's game early. Pouncey, their great young center, has been ruled out. And Roethlisberger, of course, has an ankle injury and, should he play, would be severely limited and at risk to be knocked out for the season.
So why risk it on Monday? The Steelers can still make it a competitive game with their backups at those positions. It just doesn't make any sense to go all out for a win.
Unless...
Well, unless the Ravens lose. Then a Steelers win over the 49ers would put them in the driver's seat to win the division, with remaining games against the lowly Rams and Browns, two games they should win. And finishing first in the division, with a shot at finishing first in the conference, or at least in the top two, which would mean a first-round bye, would be huge for them. Even finishing third, if it came to that, would mean a home playoff game against the sixth seed, likely the Jets or Bengals.
So there's a lot to lose but also a lot to win. And it all depends, in my view, on how the Ravens do today. Or, rather, it should depend on how the Ravens do. I'm certainly not saying Pittsburgh should roll over and lose. I know they'd play hard no matter what -- and, again, even with their backups they could beat San Francisco (though I worry about Batch starting at QB, as I'm just not sure if he could get the offence going against such a strong defensive team). What I'm saying is that they shouldn't be stupid. They need Big Ben in particular for the playoffs. Why risk it?
Okay, the picks...
As you may know, my associate editor Richard, a friend of ours nicknamed Comfortable Kid, and I are tracking our picks this year, with posts going up each Sunday at 11 am. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty.
I'm a few weeks behind in tracking the picks, but I'm pretty sure Richard is still ahead by a fairly big margin. I'll do an update later today.
**********
Okay, it's Saturday, December 24, Week 16. I'm finally getting around to updating the standings, going week by week. Here's how things stood after Week 14:
Last week
RKB: 14-2 (plus upset) = 16 points
MJWS: 13-3 (plus upset) = 15 points
The Kid: 13-3 (plus upset) = 15 points
Great week for all of us. As for me, it's hard to make up ground on Richard when even a 13-3 week loses me a point.
Season to date
RKB: 146-62 (9 upsets right, 2 locks wrong) = 160 points
MJWS: 143-65 (6 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 149 points
The Kid: 132-77 (7 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 138 points
**********
As for the early games this week, we all picked Atlanta over Jacksonville on Thursday (correct!) and Dallas over Tampa Bay on Saturday (also correct!) -- two easy picks.
The Kid: 13-3 (plus upset) = 15 points
Great week for all of us. As for me, it's hard to make up ground on Richard when even a 13-3 week loses me a point.
Season to date
RKB: 146-62 (9 upsets right, 2 locks wrong) = 160 points
MJWS: 143-65 (6 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 149 points
The Kid: 132-77 (7 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 138 points
**********
As for the early games this week, we all picked Atlanta over Jacksonville on Thursday (correct!) and Dallas over Tampa Bay on Saturday (also correct!) -- two easy picks.
Here are the rest of this week's games:
Miami at Buffalo
Seattle at Chicago
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Green Bay at Kansas City
Cincinnati at St. Louis
New Orleans at Minnesota
Washington at N.Y. Giants
Carolina at Houston
Detroit at Oakland
New England at Denver
N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia
Cleveland at Arizona
Baltimore at San Diego
Pittsburgh at San Francisco
Stickings' Pickings
Picks: Buffalo, Seattle, Tennessee, Green Bay, Cincinnati, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, Houston, Detroit, New England, N.Y. Jets, Arizona, San Diego, San Francisco.
I'm not sure about Buffalo over Miami. Honestly, the way the Bills have been playing, this could be yet another embarrassment for them. But Miami seems to have down a bit from their mid-season highs and will be playing on the road in the cold. There's a new coach there, and that could give the Fins a sense of urgency, with the players trying to solidify roster spots next year, but I just think this could be the week Buffalo returns to early-season form with a win.
Will the Jets beat the Eagles? I think so, but the Iggles are at home and seem to have a bit of life in them after last week's solid win over Miami.
Yes, I'm taking the Chargers. They played well in easy wins over the Jaguars and Bills but will have a much tougher time against a much better Ravens team. Still, this may be yet another late-season surge in San Diego (if too little too late this time) and they seem to be clicking on offence. Normally, I'd be rooting for the Ravens to lose. This week, I'm not so sure. Consider my reasoning above: If they lose, the door opens for Pittsburgh to take the division. But what if the Steelers go all-out for a win on Monday and still lose -- and in the process Big Ben, assuming he's playing, is knocked out? Wouldn't it be better for the Ravens to win and the Steelers to hold back a bit in anticipation of getting the wild card?
Okay, I'm over-thinking this. I want Baltimore to lose. Period. (But I know I'm going out on a limb by picking San Diego. With Ray Rice in top form and Flacco usually doing enough in the passing game, the Ravens have what it takes to expose a generally weak Chargers D.)
But, yes, I'm taking San Francisco over Pittsburgh. (As much as I love the Black 'n' Gold, I've got to be a realist.)
Lock of the Week: Green Bay.
I might have taken Atlanta, but I can't now pick them retroactively. It has to be the Pack, though. Again.
Upset of the Week: Seattle.
Should I take San Diego here? No. I'm picking them, but I don't have much confidence in the pick. I think Carolina can beat Houston, mainly because Cam Newton can make it happen even against good defences, but the Texans are at home and have a great running game in Foster and Tate, while the Panthers have a terrible run defence -- you do the math. The Kid's picking Denver. Of course he is. The guy loves Tebow. And I suppose it's possible. Certainly Denver's D has been performing well and could slow down Brady & Co. a bit. But just a bit won't be enough. Even with the Pats struggling on D, the Tebowners won't be able to put up enough points to keep up. Washington over the Giants? You know what? Maybe. Just maybe. I'm not picking the 'Skins, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if they pulled this one out.
No, it's got to be Seattle. Even on the road, where they don't have their incredible home-field advantage, they can beat a banged-up team like the Bears (no Cutler, no Forte). I really like what I've seen from the 'Hawks lately, particularly from Marshawn Lynch (what a relentless RB -- we've seen glimpses of this in the past but nothing quite like this) and their young, talented receiving corps (especially Doug Baldwin). There's too much inconsistency at QB with Tarvaris Jackson, but they seem to be coming together under coach Pete Carroll. The Bears have a good D and won't give up many points, but in what should a low-scoring affair (because Chicago's mostly inept on offence these days) I see Seattle coming out on top.
Barry's Tea Leaves
Picks: Miami, Seattle, Tennessee, Green Bay, Cincinnati, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, Houston, Detroit, New England, N.Y. Jets, Arizona, Baltimore, San Francisco.
Lock of the Week: Green Bay.
Upset of the Week: Miami.
Relatively easy week to pick, I think. The no-brainers? Dallas,
Tennessee, Green Bay, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Houston, and Detroit.
Other than that, I'm picking Miami over Buffalo as my upset, though it's not much of an upset. I say Brady beats Tebow. The Jets will beat Philly, because Philly sucks, and Fitzgerald beats Cleveland.
And take your coin out for Baltimore vs. San Diego and Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco. I'm going with Baltimore and San Fran.
As for my Giants, if they don't beat Washington, they don't deserve to win the division. Simple as that. I'm going to assume they win.
Other than that, I'm picking Miami over Buffalo as my upset, though it's not much of an upset. I say Brady beats Tebow. The Jets will beat Philly, because Philly sucks, and Fitzgerald beats Cleveland.
And take your coin out for Baltimore vs. San Diego and Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco. I'm going with Baltimore and San Fran.
As for my Giants, if they don't beat Washington, they don't deserve to win the division. Simple as that. I'm going to assume they win.
Comfortable Kid
Picks: Miami, Chicago, Tennessee, Green Bay, Cincinnati, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, Houston, Detroit, Denver, N.Y. Jets, Arizona, San Diego, Pittsburgh.
Lock of the Week: Green Bay.
Upset of the Week: Denver.
That's it. Enjoy the games!
posted by Michael J.W. Stickings at
11:00 AM
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