Is Rick Santorum "the next flavor of the month"?

By Nicholas Wilbur

Between Rick Perry's dip in the birther pond and Herman Cain's smoking advertisement, this has a been a relatively entertaining week in the Republican presidential race.

But not entertaining enough, apparently.

Christian Heinze asks in an article published yesterday at The Hill, is Rick Santorum "the next flavor of the month"?

The obvious answer is no, Santorum isn't "the next flavor of the month," and Heinze gets to that point pretty quickly in a list of legislative votes and public statements that have isolated the former senator from the very Tea Party base he's so desperately trying to woo. (Santorum, smartly, gave up any hope of impressing establishment Republicans months ago.)

But just in case you were curious, or hopeful, or worried sick, here is Heinze:

As Herman Cain's star appears to be declining, there is already media speculation on who will be the next "it flavor" of the 2012 race. Their conclusion: It might be former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) – the only major presidential candidate who hasn't experienced a polling boomlet.

First of all, Cain's star – to the surprise of many, including myself – actually isn't declining. There's no evidence that it's even dimming. Recent public opinion polls show Cain tied or ahead of frontrunner Mitt Romney, and the respondents to these polls don't seem bothered that the media and his fellow candidates have spent weeks ripping Cain's amateurish 9-9-9 plan to pieces. (For the record, I'm not ready to eat crow on this one yet, as I do still firmly believe that Cain's quirkiness, and his economic plan to raise taxes on 84 percent of Americans, will eventually take its toll on the pizza executive's poll numbers.)

Secondly, "media speculation" isn't a source, which explains why Heinze didn't actually cite anyone. Even had he cited the people in the media who are allegedly doing this speculating, that alone wouldn't give their claims validity. This "conclusion" seems to lie somewhere between a hunch or a rumor, and that assumes it's not a story planted by the Santorum campaign itself, which is possible. Wherever this idea originated, it's not likely to manifest beyond the hypothetical. Santorum's poll numbers – even in Iowa, where he is campaigning the hardest – haven't moved above 4 percent.

Thirdly, just because a candidate hasn't "experienced a polling boomlet" doesn't mean it's his turn. Newt Gingrich hasn't experienced such a boomlet either. Neither has Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, or Gary Johnson. Outside of Iowa, where Michele Bachmann won the presidential straw poll in August, she too has been deprived of such a "boomlet."

A dismal polling record does not a boomlet make.

The fact that certain candidates are widely unpopular doesn't mean voters or poll respondents will suddenly have a change of heart, muster up a dose of sympathy, and give the undesirables a golden star merely for participating.

Which brings us to the point: Santorum is not the next shining star of the GOP presidential race, mainly because he's not the anti-Romney candidate. He's a nervous, stuttering, angry homophobe who wouldn't last a day as a frontrunner, if only because people would suddenly know his name. And they'd Google it. The end.

Heinze may have a quota, and given that there are no debates this week, it would be understandable if he were forced to meet that quota by making up fantasy-fictions about the potential of a come-from-behind anti-sodomy candidate rising to the top of the field, but I just want to make sure people aren't taking everything they read seriously.

Oh wait, Cain is leading in the polls. Too late.

(Cross-posted at Muddy Politics.)