Fighting an election on the Paul Ryan budget plan? Good idea (for Democrats)

By: R.K. Barry

Steve Benen at the Washington Monthly recently discussed a poll by a major Democratic pollster, Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner, which suggested that Republicans might have some difficulty selling the Paul Ryan budget plan to the American people.

On the day the plan passed in the House, the pollster wrote:

Congressman Paul Ryan's budget proposal, to be embraced by the House Republican majority today, faces serious obstacles in winning public support. The Republican plan provides Democrats with a strong argument that Republicans have the wrong priorities for America and will break a long-standing agreement the country has with seniors. The budget opens up a fundamental debate about values that could end up defining the Republicans in the public mind and allowing Democrats to draw sharp differences and regain their standing on the economy and spending priorities and advocacy for the middle class. The decision to end Medicare and shift costs to seniors in continuing tough times may be the Republicans' undoing.

The Republican deficit plan does not even win majority support, but when voters learn almost anything about it, they turn sharply and intensely against it. They have particularly grave concerns about the plan to end Medicare and slash Medicaid spending, pushing seniors into the private insurance market and costing them thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket expenses.

The bottom line is that when people are asked in general terms if they like the Republican plan, 48% support the idea, while 33% were against it. Not bad for the Republicans.

But when people are told exactly what is in the plan, there is a shift.

As Benen writes:

But then respondents were given an accurate description of the same plan, noting, among other things, that the GOP proposal makes small cuts in defense spending, repeals health care reform, cuts taxes on corporations and the wealthy and makes major cuts to Medicaid and Medicare.

Upon hearing this, support drops from 48% to 36% and opposition rises from 33% to 56%.

As Nate Silver points out, "clearly there is a political upside for Dems in attacking the Ryan plan, however, they also have a lot of work to do to inform voters about it."

But that would seem to be the point and opportunity. This is what some people call a ballot question: the top of mind issue that people are thinking about when they enter a voting booth. Understanding that Democrats have a lot of work to do to ensure that people "get it," the Republican approach provides a coherent point of attack for Democrats. Campaigners are always grateful when these sorts of things fall out of the sky. Perhaps we should all send a gift to Mr. Ryan to show our gratitude.

Speaking of the Congressman, when he first started flogging his plan, he was all over the press expressing his hope that Democrats would not politicize his proposal. Here we have perhaps the single most important political decision that can be made in Washington, articulation of the financial architecture of the country for years to come, and Ryan thinks it would be a shame if political hay were made out of it by Democrats.

Not to school Paul Ryan in any way, but there was a very important book written by leading American political scientist Harold Lasswell in 1935 called Politics: Who Gets What, When, and How. I don't think things have changed that much since then. This budget battle is a contest to determine just this. It is the most political of exercises for everyone involved. Republican have a clear idea of who they want to help, as do Democrats.

So far it seems that the more the American people learn about the GOP's plan for America, the more likely they will be to understand that Democrats advocate for a much larger portion of the population and Republicans for a more select few. It's about time something made that picture clearer.

No wonder President Obama is getting fired up lately.

(Cross-posted to Lippmann's Ghost)