Massachusetts Senate Vote: Live-blogging the drama of the century

By Michael J.W. Stickings

(Updated frequently -- see below.)

Okay, here we go.

My prediction: Brown 51, Coakley, 48. Closer than the last polls were suggesting but still a fairly decisive victory for the Republican.

And an appalling one. A Republican like Brown filling Teddy Kennedy's seat? Did Massachusetts make a pact with the devil or something? What else could it have done to deserve this?

Well, for one, state Democrats picked Coakley, who has proven to be a terrible, gaffe-prone candidate (e.g., Curt Schilling is a Yankee fan).

For two, Brown has campaigned as an independent, sort of moderate Republican, hiding his right-wing cred (e.g., his link to the Birthers), and he's campaigned extremely well, not least through social networking.

For three, Republicans are engaged, excited, and frothing at the mouth.

For four, Democrats, even with Obama in the White House and majorities in Congress, are divided, as usual, and seemingly unable to come together when it matters (except to pass health-care reform, of course, though it continues to hang in the balance).

Okay, more later. I'm off to make dinner.

But isn't this so incredibly exciting? Er, no, not really.

I mean, sure, for political junkies, like us, but the Beltway insider types are making way, way too much of this, as if the very future of American democracy rests on the outcome of this "special" election.

I would say it does not. And neither, necessarily, does health-care reform, which can be passed by the House without going back to the Senate. Sure, it's better to have 60 votes (including Sanders and Lieberman) than 59, given the silly filibuster rule in the Senate and the fact that it now seems that legislation requires 60 votes, an awful, paralyzing perversion of democratic rule, but Democrats will just have to work harder and be more creative -- if Brown wins, that is.

Okay, later.

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Mmmm. There's nothing quite like breakfast for dinner: eggs, (turkey) bacon, fried potatoes, fried tomatoes, toast.

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ABC News: "Bayh Warns 'Catastrophe' If Dems Ignore Massachusetts Senate Race Lessons." That strong language. A catastrophe? Really? Come on.

But what are the lessons?

"It's why moderates and independents even in a state as Democratic as Massachusetts just aren't buying our message." Oh right... because, of course, Evan Bayh, self-styled centrist and thorn in the side of mainstream Democrats, thinks the Democratic Party should be the Republican Party Lite.

The lesson. Be more Republican!

Wrong, Bayh, wrong. You can't nationalize this race that way, you can't generalize it. As I said above, Brown has been a really good candidate while Coakley has been a really bad one, Republicans are angry, energized, and mobilized, and Democrats aren't, or not as much, and it's an off-year "special" election that won't turn out an apathetic electorate (even if turnout is pretty good, relatively speaking).

Okay, sure, it's tough to see Kennedy's seat go to a Republican, but it's not like Democrats don't win in what are largely red/Republican states. As Jon Chait pointed out earlier today, a Democrat, Ben Nelson, won in hard-core Republican Nebraska back in 2000. Similarly, there are, lest we forget, two Republican senators from Maine.

It is surprising that Massachusetts would elect a Republican to the Senate? Well, yes, not least given that its two seats have been Democratic for... well, almost forever -- held by Kennedy and John Kerry.

So let's not make too much of this.

Oh, but so much is being made of it, because the Beltway commentariat needs to have its concocted drama, needs to feel important and smarter-than-thou with over-the-top analyses of the way things are. 

Just take it all with a few grains of salt. Preferably, if you have it, Bolivean Rose Andes Mountain salt, which I had on my eggs. Very tasty.

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Oh, by the way, Brown is up 52.7 to 46.3 with 69% of precincts reporting. (Results here.) 

Alas. 

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9:24 pm -- And there you have it. CNN has called it for Brown. And Coakley has apparently conceded.

Well... 

You know what really grinds my gears? The fact that Republicans all across the land are celebrating. That really friggin' irks me.

What have they done to deserve any sort of victory? 

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Why am I still watching CNN? It's Larry King, for God's sake.

I will say this: Ari Fleischer is an idiot. Unheard of for a Republican to win a state-wide seat? Well, sure. But that's because two giants, Kennedy and Kerry, have held the two Senate seats. It's not like there haven't been any Republican governors of Massachusetts, after all -- William Weld and Mitt Romney. 

And he says health-care reform is dead? Why? Again, the House could pass the Senate bill as is and that would be that. Okay, there could be a revolt among Democrats in the House, but there's a good chance, staring defeat and embarrassment in the face, they'll actually stick together.

Look, the Democrats hold the White House and majorites on both sides of Capitol Hill. How could it be that a single election, a single Democratic seat going Republican, would change everything? This is the narrative Republicans are going to spin, and the mainstream media are going to help them do it, but it's simply wrong. It's not that Brown's win means nothing, it's just that it doesn't mean everything. And part of what it means is that there's serious anti-incumbent sentiment out there. No, Coakley wasn't the incumbent, but her party held the seat, and, with the economy still struggling, voters are angry and frustrated, and part of the reason she lost is that voters took out their anger and frustration on her. 

Oh, look, Gloria Borger. Fantastic. She's rambling on about Big Government or something. Nonsense. She opens her mouth, and it flaps, and she's good at being a talking head, but she offers nothing of genuine value. 

And there's Dana Bash reporting that she's talked to so many House Democrats, and they just won't vote for the Senate bill. Fine. But it's still early. Let the loss in Massachusetts sink in, let Obama and Pelosi push for a vote, let these Democrats consider how horrendous losing health-care reform would be to them. Then we'll see where they stand.

Make sure to read Jon Chait's "Panic!!! Why Democrats need to take a deep, deep breath. Maybe two." at his new blog. He explains why so much of the punditry surrounding the Brown-Coakley race was and is just plain wrong.

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Okay, well, enough.

For more, check out The Boston Globe.

Oh, here's a bit from Brown's victory speech: "I know I have a lot to learn in the Senate, but I know who I am and I know who I serve. I'm Scott Brown, I'm from Wrentham, and I drive a truck. And let me just say in conclusion... I am nobody's senator but yours."

Great. I hope chills of fear and panic just went up and down the spines of Massachusettsians (or whatever the hell they're called), because they're now stuck with this guy, just like the rest of the country is, and, while he may claim to be nothin' but a truck-drivin' good ol' nor'easter boy, he'll fit it quite nicely thank you very much with the rest of the Republican insanitarium in Washington.

"Raising taxes, taking over our health care, and giving new rights to terrorists is the wrong agenda for our country." And so it begins...

Massachusetts Republicans, it seems, can bullshit with the best of 'em.

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For the record, it's now 51.9 to 47.1. So I was off by a bit, expecting it to be 9/10th of a point closer on either side.