What’s Russian for "cold feet"?

By Jim Arkedis

Jim Arkedis runs the All Our Might blog at the Progressive Policy Institute.

In 2005, Iran and Russia signed an $800 million contract so that Tehran could acquire five S-300 systems (known as the SA-20 around here), designed to simultaneously track 100 targets and fire at aircraft 120km away. It also has “high jamming immunity,” which I assume means that foreign armies can’t block its tracking mechanisms

How significant is this contract? Very, on two counts:

1. “If Tehran obtained the S-300, it would be a game-changer in military thinking for tackling Iran,” says long-time Pentagon advisor Dan Goure. Tehran would likely deploy the S-300 around the critical Nantanz nuclear facility, effectively nullifying the military advantage of a US or Israeli plan to attack it. (NB: I’m not suggesting there is wisdom in attacking Iran, but rather addressing only the military balance of power.)

2. $800 million might not seem like a lot these days, but to Iran it still is. How much? Well, the highest number I could find for Iran’s defense budget was $6.2billion. Some think it’s as low as $4.8billion. In other words, the S-300 is a massive outlay.

But is Russia balking at the sale? Reports today suggest the deal is now conditional. And they’d better have a good reason - the cash-strapped Soviet military ghost could sure use the money.

Simply put, it looks like the Russians are trying to curry favor with the Obama administration. It’s a long way before declaring this a victory for diplomacy over confrontation, but this would seem a qualified positive first step. And if Russia suspends the sale indefinitely, what is DC’s quid pro quo?