Is the security situation in Iraq about to get worse?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

The warmongers, including McCain, say the surge is working well. Those of us who pay attention to reality say it isn't -- see here and here -- or at least that whatever success there has been is really just a temporary lull. Slate's Fred Kaplan:

[M]uch of the reduced violence is related to the "alliances of convenience" between U.S. forces and Sunni insurgents against the common enemy of al-Qaida in Iraq. These alliances were initiated by the Sunnis and antedate the surge. There is also the matter of Muqtada Sadr's moratorium on violence (which, in fairness,
might be due in part to the surge). And there is the simple fact that U.S. forces are paying insurgency groups not to attack them (a wise use of money, until it runs out).

The lull, which has already been pierced in recent months by renewed violence and, overall, a worsening of the security situation -- may soon be over for good, as McClatchy is reporting:

A cease-fire critical to the improved security situation in Iraq appeared to unravel Monday when a militia loyal to radical Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al Sadr began shutting down neighborhoods in west Baghdad and issuing demands of the central government.

Simultaneously, in the strategic southern port city of Basra, where Sadr's Mahdi militia is in control, the Iraqi government launched a crackdown in the face of warnings by Sadr's followers that they'll fight government forces if any Sadrists are detained. By 1 a.m. Arab satellite news channels reported clashes between the Mahdi Army and police in Basra.

The freeze on offensive activity by Sadr's Mahdi Army has been a major factor behind the recent drop in violence in Iraq, and there were fears that the confrontation that's erupted in Baghdad and Basra could end the lull in attacks, assassinations, kidnappings and bombings.

The warmongers will continue to insist that all is going well, that the U.S. needs to stick it out, that victory, however defined, is possible and perhaps even just around the corner.

Reality, however, to which they pay little attention, suggests otherwise.