What's in an endorsement?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Perhaps not much.

As Steve Benen put it yesterday, as he has before, "there's little evidence that endorsements actually translate to votes," let alone to electoral success generally. Still, they don't hurt -- the good ones, anyway. The media report on them with disproportionate gravitas and, in general, they contribute to what all candidates, and especially candidates on the national stage, candidates running for the White House, need, namely, media-driven momentum derived from positive media coverage.

Consider the positive coverage John McCain received this past week, a result not just of his victory in Florida but from what followed, namely, endorsements from two high-profile political celebrities, Rudy Giuliani and Arnold Schwarzenegger. That coverage boosted his momentum, propelled him onto the front pages, and allowed him to project the image of a winner going into Super Tuesday. Mitt Romney has his endorsers, of course, particularly among the purificationist conservatives of the far right, but McCain seems to have the advantage on this front.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has her endorsers, too, including The New York Times and some high-profile figures in her own party, but it is Obama who seems, at least recently, to have attracted the big names: Ted Kennedy (and the Kennedys generally), John Kerry, MoveOn.org, etc. Indeed, as Steve shows, Obama has attracted endorsers from across the Democratic spectrum: liberals like Kennedy, Kerry, and Patrick Leahy; centrists like Tim Kaine and Kathleen Sebelius; and conservatives like Ben Nelson. He even has the support of an Eisenhower.

And now, with the California primary coming up on Super Tuesday -- the biggest primary of all, with by far the most delegates to be won -- Obama has secured the support of both the L.A. Times, the state's biggest and most influential newspaper, and La Opinión, the biggest Spanish-language newspaper in the country, the second biggest newspaper in Los Angeles, and, needless to say, the state's most influential Spanish-language newspaper. Given how important both California and the Hispanic vote are, these are significant endorsements.

Of course, two of the biggest prospective endorsers remain uncommitted: John Edwards and Al Gore. I suspect that Edwards will announce his endorsement after Super Tuesday. Gore, who is now above politics and who will need to work with the next president on climate issues, would be wise not to endorse anyone.

As for me, I remain uncommitted. But I feel left out. I think I'll announce my endorsement -- a Democrat, of course -- on Monday or Tuesday.