Sunday, February 04, 2007

SBXLI

By Michael J.W. Stickings

With kickoff just a few minutes away, here's my prediction:

Indianapolis Colts 31
Chicago Bears 20

I've been going back and forth on this one, but I think the Colts' O will outplay the Bears' D and that the Colts' D will do just enough to keep the Bears' rushing game in check. It's not that I have all that much confidence in Peyton Manning, however. He's a great QB but at best a mediocre playoff performer, even this year. If he's on, even the Bears can't stop him. If he's not, this could be yet another meltdown. But he just has too much talent around him, and if this game comes down to turnovers, I have far more confidence in Manning than in Rex Grossman, perhaps one of the worst QBs ever to lead to team to the big game. He was horrible in the first half against the Saints in the NFC championship game two weeks ago, but he was able to pick apart a more horrible Saints' secondary in the second half and, much to his credit, he didn't turn the ball over. The Colts D isn't great, and it's lousy against the run, but it could be just opportunistic enough to stop the Bears, particularly if DE Dwight Freeney is able to put pressure on Grossman and S Bob Sanders is able to support the LBs in stopping the run.

But I've been picking against the Bears all year even as they've kept winning. And I can see the RB combination of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson running for over 150 yards today. And Grossman has some good WRs to throw to -- in particular, Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian. And even Manning, WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, RBs Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes, and TE Dallas Clark could be shut down by the LB Brian Urlacher-led Bears D. The Colts have the much better K in former Patriots hero Adam Vinatieri, but the Bears' Robbie Gould has had a pretty good season and won the playoff game over Seattle in OT a few weeks ago.

All good reasons to go with the Bears, but I think this is Manning's year to prove he's one of the best ever. He hasn't had much of a playoff run so far, but he should be able to rise to the occasion and lead the Colts to a win today.

Enjoy the game, everyone. See you later.

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posted by Michael J.W. Stickings at 6:17 PM

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5 Comments:

  • Grossman's a terrible decision-maker, as we've already seen (although he just threw a touchdown to Muhammad). This has been a weird game. Mostly big plays by the Bears, which could be flukes. Lots of fumbles. I wonder if people will now be agitating for a dry-weather environment. Why don't they just schedule all teh future SuperBowls at the Cardinals' home field? They'll never be there.

    By Blogger ., at 6:56 PM  

  • Okay, that Letterman commercial was sweet.

    By Blogger ., at 7:00 PM  

  • Half-time: Grossman hasn't been too bad thus far, but the Colts are clearly dominating the game. If it hadn't been for the opening kickoff return -- yes, yes, I forgot to mention Devin Hester in my post -- and the big run by Thomas Jones, the Bears wouldn't have much to show for themselves right now.

    But the Bears find ways to win, and it may be a turnover or a big pass/run that makes the difference. Somehow they're able to capitalize on their opponents' mistakes, and already the Colts have missed an extra point and a field goal -- Vinatieri wasn't responsible for the former, but he should have nailed that FG.

    I like when football is played in bad weather, which is why I generally don't like the sterile environment of domes. It's much more enjoyable to see Manning deal with the rain than to see him play at home, for example.

    By Blogger Michael J.W. Stickings, at 8:20 PM  

  • Well, not a bad prediction, if I do say so myself.

    Manning deserves a lot of credit for sticking to the game plan -- that is, emphasizing the run -- and not trying to force a passing gaem in such difficult conditions. And although he played well, it's a shame that Addai and Rhodes didn't end up sharing the MVP, as Nantz and Simms suggested on CBS.

    Regardless, the Colts deserved to win. They dominated the game. And aside from that long run by Jones in the first half, the Bears just couldn't get it going on offence. Grossman didn't play well, but it wasn't just him.

    So that's it. At least it was an enjoyable, entertaining game. And now I need to rest after all the beer and nachos.

    By Blogger Michael J.W. Stickings, at 11:32 PM  

  • Beer and nachos? When did you become so everyman?

    I'm happy for Tony Dungy, who is one of my favorite people in the NFL, and who has been one of the most important people in the league in the past twenty-five years, revolutionizing it with the Cover 2. And I am happy for Manning, even though no one seems to like him.

    By Blogger ., at 12:16 AM  

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