Webb pulls ahead in Virginia (maybe)

By Michael J.W. Stickings

According to WDBJ-TV (Roanoke), a new poll of likely voters finds Jim Webb (D) leading George Allen (R) by eight points, 52 to 44, in the Virginia Senate race.

But this result may be an aberration. As you can see here, recent polls have shown a much tighter race, with Allen ahead by three in a Gallup poll, Webb up by one in a Mason-Dixon poll and a Zogby poll, and the race tied in a Rasmussen poll. An eight-point lead would be Webb's largest. At the end of October, he was ahead by four points in a CNN/Time poll and five points in a Rasmussen poll. Allen was ahead by as many as eleven points in an early-October Zogby poll.

It's probably safe to say that this race is a virtual tie going into the election.

Turnout will make all the difference.