Saturday, November 04, 2006

Weekend polls and predictions

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Newsweek: "As President George W. Bush jets across Red State America this weekend, Republican candidates are falling further behind Democratic rivals... If the elections were held today, 54 percent of likely voters say they would support the Democratic candidate in their district versus 38 percent who would vote for the Republican -- a 16-point edge for the Democrats."

And Bush's approval rating is just 35 percent.

But: "Expect to hear lots in the news and on the Web during the next few days about the GOP’s '72-hour campaign,' the party's hyper-organized, multimillion-dollar get-out-the-vote effort that uses mailing lists, consumer marketing information and high-tech data crunching to find Republicans and roust them to the polls."

Will the Democrats be able to match that effort?

See also MyDD.

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The Weekly Standard: The staff of the leading neocon rag give their midterm predictions. Only one of the 17 predicts that the GOP will hold on to the House. Eight predict that the Senate will stay Republican, five that it will go Democratic, and four that it will be a 50-50 tie when all is said and done.

Then again, these guys still think going to war in Iraq was a great idea.

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The Post and the Times have good overviews.

From the former: "'The bottom just fell out,' said Amy Walter, a House analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Her publication predicted yesterday that Republicans will lose 20 to 35 seats. Rothenberg predicted a 34-to-40-seat Democratic gain. 'The House is gone,' he said"

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Rasmussen Reports: "On the final Saturday of Election 2006, the race for control of the Senate is tied. The Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power summary now rates 49 seats as Democrat or Leans Democrat and 49 seats as Republican or Leans Republican and two as Toss-Ups. The two remaining Toss-Ups are both seats defended by incumbent Republicans -- Jim Talent in Missouri and George Allen in Virginia."

And check out The Cook Political Report and The Rothenberg Political Report for the latest prognostications from the best in the business.

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And see Robert Kuttner in the Globe: "November 2006 will be remembered either as the time American democracy was stolen again, maybe forever, or began a brighter day."

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