Dems well ahead in generic polls

By Michael J.W. Stickings

According to FOX News, 49 percent of likely voters "favor the Democratic candidate in their House district and 36 percent the Republican," a solid 13-point lead for the Dems. And independents favor the Democrats over the Republicans by a massive 15-point margin, 42 to 27.

But it still may come down to turnout: "'The issue is whether Republican targeting and their "get-out-to-vote" machine can overcome the greater Democratic interest in the electorate,' says Opinion Dynamics Chairman John Gorman. 'Who is likely to vote will make the difference tomorrow.'" (And note that so-called Republican "targeting" is often just push polling and robo-calling. For more on push polling, see Dickerson at Slate. For more on robo-calling, whereby Republicans pretending to be Democrats use an automated system to call voters, annoy them, and suppress turnout, see The Washington Post, The Boston Globe, TPM, TPM Muckraker, Political Animal, AMERICAblog, MyDD, Firedoglake, Crooks and Liars, Balloon Juice, and Thought Theater. It smacks of desperation, but it's simply despicable.)

But of course the Dems have a better get-out-the-vote machine than they've had in recent elections, and Rove's evangelical base doesn't seem nearly as motivated this year as in years past. Which isn't to say the "base strategy" won't work this year, just that it might not work out enough to overcome... oh, how shall I put it... hmmm... let's see...

MASSIVE REPUBLICAN UNPOPULARITY AND A PRESIDENT WITH APPROVAL RATINGS DOWN IN THE LOW 30S, BOTH THE RESULT OF AN ONGOING WAR IN IRAQ THAT HAS PROVEN TO BE A DISASTER OF WORLD-HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS, RAMPANT CORRUPTION THROUGHOUT THE PARTY, INCOMPETENCE AND NEGLIGENCE OF STUNNING BREADTH AND DEPTH, EXTREMIST AND DIVISIVE SOCIAL POLICY, UBIQUITOUS MALFEASANCE AND INJUSTICE, AND THE DESTRUCTION OF AMERICAN CREDIBILITY WITH THE SACRIFICE OF AMERICA'S FUNDAMENTAL VALUES.

Yeah, we'll see what Rove can pull out of his hat.

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CNN's latest numbers are even more striking than FOX's: "Democrats hold a 20 percentage-point advantage -- 58 percent to 38 percent -- over Republicans among likely voters," up from just 11 points a week ago. This suggests a distinct widening of the gap in the last week of the campaign, contrary to some of the GOP-on-the-rise speculation currently making the rounds.

It should come as no surprise that the GOP itself is reporting far more favourable numbers.