Good news for the Dems

Sit down. Take a deep breath. And don't get too excited. There's some fairly good news for Dems going into the Labo(u)r Day weekend with respect to their mid-term electoral prospects.

According to USA Today (uh, yesterday), "[polls] in five key states show Democrats poised to gain Senate seats but facing an uphill battle to regain control". They also show that "Democrats seem more likely to carry the House in the Nov. 7 elections, which are being shaped by voters' unease over Iraq, jobs and health care and a sense that the nation is on the wrong track".

(Another deep breath.)

Here's are the details from five key battlegrounds (quoting USA Today):

• In Pennsylvania, Sen. Rick Santorum trailed Democrat Bob Casey by 18 percentage points among likely voters, by 14 points among registered voters.

• In Ohio, Sen. Mike DeWine was behind Democrat Sherrod Brown by 6 points among likely voters, by 2 points among registered voters.

• In Montana, three-term Sen. Conrad Burns, who has faced questions in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal, was in a close race with Democrat Jon Tester. Tester led by 3 points among likely voters; Burns led by 2 points among registered voters.

• In Missouri, Sen. Jim Talent held a 6-point lead among likely voters over Democrat Claire McCaskill. The two were tied among registered voters.

• In Minnesota, where Republicans hope to pick up an open seat, Democrat Amy Klobuchar led Republican Mark Kennedy by 10 points among likely voters, by 7 points among registered voters.

Plus, the gubernatorial race in Minnesota between incumbent Republican Tim Pawlenty and Democratic challenger Mike Hatch is virtually even. In Pennsylvania, Democratic Governor Ed Rendell leads Republican challenger Lynn Swann by 22 points (as a life-long Steelers fan, Swann will always be close to my heart, but I'm not on his side this time.) And in Ohio, Democrat Ted Strickland leads Republican Ken Blackwell by 16 points (although, as I recently reported, Strickland may be up by as much as 25 points).

There's still a long way to go -- two months is a long time in politics, and it's never wise to count the Republicans out, not with Rove et al. looking as always to manipulate the narrative -- but these are nonetheless positive signs, indications of possible success, that Democrats could retake one or both houses of Congress in November.

(Yet another deep breath. It's too early to predict anything at this point. But still.)

For more, see Ezra Klein, who counsels caution but expresses optimism, and Joe Gandelman, who wonders if (and how) Democrats will "find a way to grab defeat out of the jaws of victory". Steve Benen looks at other positive poll results here (it seems "fewer and fewer people [want] to identify themselves as Republicans" -- can you blame them?).

And now let's get back to the hard work of getting Democrats elected. As mcjoan puts it at Kos, "[w]ith just nine weeks left of campaigning, we have a lot of ground to cover".