Conservatives surge ahead of Liberals with two weeks to go
On the Canadian election:
Just last Thursday I noted that the Conservatives had pulled to within just a couple of percentage points of the Liberals in a major tracking poll.
The Conservatives have since surged ahead. A new poll conducted by the Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail has the Conservatives up by eight percentage points, 37 to 29. The New Democrats and the Bloc Quebecois lag behind at 15 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
The election is two weeks from today, January 23.
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As one reader rightly pointed out (see comments section here), Canada's electoral system -- Single-Member Plurality, otherwise known as "first-past-the-post," the system used for elections to Westminster in the United Kingdom and for federal and state elections in the United States -- rewards parties on a riding-by-riding basis, not proportionally according to the popular vote.
In any given riding, a candidate only needs to win the most votes to be elected, at least one more vote than the second-place candidate regardless of how many candidates are running. That is, he or she only needs to receive a plurality (as opposed to a majority) of the vote to be elected.
What this means is that overall popular vote isn't much of a guide, if a guide at all, to electoral success, which in our system depends on the total number of ridings (or seats) won. It is common for a party to receive a majority of seats, and hence to form the government, with far less than a majority of the popular vote, sometimes with less than 40 percent of the popular vote.
For a riding-by-riding analysis/prediction of the upcoming Canadian election, see the Election Prediction Project here. The EPP has the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives 85 to 73 (in terms of seats), with the Bloc at 51 and the New Democrats at 14. However, 85 ridings are too close to call (including my own).
An English-language leaders' debate tonight could shake things up -- see here for a preview.
Just last Thursday I noted that the Conservatives had pulled to within just a couple of percentage points of the Liberals in a major tracking poll.
The Conservatives have since surged ahead. A new poll conducted by the Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail has the Conservatives up by eight percentage points, 37 to 29. The New Democrats and the Bloc Quebecois lag behind at 15 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
The election is two weeks from today, January 23.
**********
As one reader rightly pointed out (see comments section here), Canada's electoral system -- Single-Member Plurality, otherwise known as "first-past-the-post," the system used for elections to Westminster in the United Kingdom and for federal and state elections in the United States -- rewards parties on a riding-by-riding basis, not proportionally according to the popular vote.
In any given riding, a candidate only needs to win the most votes to be elected, at least one more vote than the second-place candidate regardless of how many candidates are running. That is, he or she only needs to receive a plurality (as opposed to a majority) of the vote to be elected.
What this means is that overall popular vote isn't much of a guide, if a guide at all, to electoral success, which in our system depends on the total number of ridings (or seats) won. It is common for a party to receive a majority of seats, and hence to form the government, with far less than a majority of the popular vote, sometimes with less than 40 percent of the popular vote.
For a riding-by-riding analysis/prediction of the upcoming Canadian election, see the Election Prediction Project here. The EPP has the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives 85 to 73 (in terms of seats), with the Bloc at 51 and the New Democrats at 14. However, 85 ridings are too close to call (including my own).
An English-language leaders' debate tonight could shake things up -- see here for a preview.
posted by Michael J.W. Stickings at
6:16 PM
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