Conservatives narrow gap in Canada
According to the Globe and Mail / CTV tracking poll, the Conservatives are now just two points behind the governing Liberals. The Liberals are at 33%, while the Conservatives are at 31%. The New Democrats are third at 17%, the separatist Bloc Quebecois fourth at 13% (all in Quebec, of course). The Greens come in fifth at 5%.
The numbers have remained relatively consistent, which means that we're looking at either a Liberal or Conservative minority government coming out of the Jan. 23 election. I still think the Liberals will end up on top, if only by a few seats, but it's not inconceivable that the Conservatives could pull out a narrow victory.
One point, however: Although the Liberals and Conservatives are close, these poll numbers show that the center of gravity in Canadian politics is very much on the center-left of a spectrum that already leans to the left of its American counterpart. The Conservatives are for the most part a center-right party with smaller populist, religious, and neoconservative elements on its right flank. The Liberals, traditionally Canada's dominant party, occupy a huge swath of the spectrum all the way from the left, where they occasionally overlap with the socialist New Democrats, to the other side of center, where they overlap with the more traditional Tory elements among the Conservatives. The New Democrats, to repeat, are on the left, Canada's mainstream socialists. The Greens aren't easily identified on the spectrum, but they are for the most part on left and center-left. The Bloc is a single-purpose party that promotes Quebecois separatism. Like its provincial counterpart, the Parti Quebecois, it spans the spectrum from socialism on the left to nationalism on the right, but for the most part the Bloc leans left on economic and social issues (for example, it supported same-sex marriage).
The Conservatives may win a narrow minority government, but Canada is not a conservative (or Conservative) country. To be sure, there is conservatism in Canada and there's obviously room for a party that represents the interests of the right side of the spectrum, but the majority of Canadians -- those who will vote for the Liberals, the New Democrats, the Bloc, and the Greens -- will not vote for such a party. The Liberals may similarly win a narrow minority government, but at least the Liberals are more or less in line with the majority of Canadians, even if that majority divides its votes among a number of parties and thereby allows the Conservatives to squeak through.
I haven't yet decided where my vote will go. I'm not impressed with any of the candidates in my riding in downtown Toronto. But it's nice to know that, regardless of the outcome, Canadians will express once again that we are a liberal (if not necessarily Liberal) country.
The numbers have remained relatively consistent, which means that we're looking at either a Liberal or Conservative minority government coming out of the Jan. 23 election. I still think the Liberals will end up on top, if only by a few seats, but it's not inconceivable that the Conservatives could pull out a narrow victory.
One point, however: Although the Liberals and Conservatives are close, these poll numbers show that the center of gravity in Canadian politics is very much on the center-left of a spectrum that already leans to the left of its American counterpart. The Conservatives are for the most part a center-right party with smaller populist, religious, and neoconservative elements on its right flank. The Liberals, traditionally Canada's dominant party, occupy a huge swath of the spectrum all the way from the left, where they occasionally overlap with the socialist New Democrats, to the other side of center, where they overlap with the more traditional Tory elements among the Conservatives. The New Democrats, to repeat, are on the left, Canada's mainstream socialists. The Greens aren't easily identified on the spectrum, but they are for the most part on left and center-left. The Bloc is a single-purpose party that promotes Quebecois separatism. Like its provincial counterpart, the Parti Quebecois, it spans the spectrum from socialism on the left to nationalism on the right, but for the most part the Bloc leans left on economic and social issues (for example, it supported same-sex marriage).
The Conservatives may win a narrow minority government, but Canada is not a conservative (or Conservative) country. To be sure, there is conservatism in Canada and there's obviously room for a party that represents the interests of the right side of the spectrum, but the majority of Canadians -- those who will vote for the Liberals, the New Democrats, the Bloc, and the Greens -- will not vote for such a party. The Liberals may similarly win a narrow minority government, but at least the Liberals are more or less in line with the majority of Canadians, even if that majority divides its votes among a number of parties and thereby allows the Conservatives to squeak through.
I haven't yet decided where my vote will go. I'm not impressed with any of the candidates in my riding in downtown Toronto. But it's nice to know that, regardless of the outcome, Canadians will express once again that we are a liberal (if not necessarily Liberal) country.
posted by Michael J.W. Stickings at
7:28 AM
6 Comments:
I would have voted for the old PC's perhaps as a sign of protest about the sponsorship scandals but the current Conservative's still seem like a regional party (something I would never vote for) to me.
So that leaves the NDP, Greens, Christian Heritage, the Communists or of course the always fun and exciting ballot spoiling. Hmmmm it's a toughie... Damn, where's the Rhinocerous Party when you need them. Gravity banning and free kegs of beer for all!!!
Michael, would you care to elaborate on that last sentence you slipped in as to Canada perhaps not being capital-L Liberal which I would take to meaning that we do not possess as much personal freedom as is ideal. Or perhaps it was a subtle comparison to the freedoms enjoyed by our neighbors to the south? I'm not sure what you mean, but I'm interested to hear more on this.
By
Anonymous, at 3:07 PM
The Liberals are going to get trounced here in Quebec. In wake of the scanadal... I think it is going to be pretty ugly here.
By
Anonymous, at 6:17 PM
And I think his statement means that regardless of the outcome (namely, that the Liberal party will lose the election), that Canada will continue to promote its liberal ideals such as same sex marriage and generally relaxed laws in regards to rights and freedoms with protective laws for those who would be subsumed by majority. C'est correct?
By
Anonymous, at 6:28 PM
Oh how dumb of me, by capital L-Liberal he was referring to the Liberal Party. I thought it was maybe a play on what Liberal means today and what it used to mean like say a couple hundred years back.
By
Anonymous, at 9:49 AM
One thing to keep in mind is that raw poll numbers mean very little in Canada, due to the riding system. If the Liberals win by one vote each in fifty percent of ridings, plus one, they will have a majority government - regardless of the overall tally. While such a scenario is unlikely, it does favour those with distributed support, since every extra vote in a riding, beyond the winning vote, is effectively 'wasted.'
Milan
www.sindark.com
By
Milan, at 2:00 PM
That's true. The liberals very well might have a majority government, and even a minority one is not a loss. My bad.
In Quebec, though, they've been joking about the rhino party too, but much truth is said in jest.
By
Anonymous, at 6:53 PM
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