(Positive) destruction in Gaza
Well, it's a start. According to the Times (see here), "Israel and the Palestinians have agreed to cooperate on the demolition of the 1,600 Gaza houses to be vacated by Israeli settlers in less than two months... The agreement represented the first concrete Israeli-Palestinian cooperation in Gaza after many months of disputes."
I've wrestled with my own positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for many years -- I think it's important to support Israel, for a number of reasons, but I also think that the only viable solution with respect to long-term peace is the withdrawal of Israel from disputed lands and the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state. Call me a moderate, but the whole region could use some moderation if there is ever to be anything approaching peace. (And let's not forget that the violence continues.)
Anyway, this will be an interesting story to follow through the summer (and beyond, of course). For now, there is hope that Sharon and Abbas are moving in the right direction. And, yes, it's time to give Condoleezza Rice some credit. After years of avoidance and irresponsible neglect, the Bush Administration is finally dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a serious and productive manner, and Rice is clearly the way. Better late than never, I suppose, but there's still much to be done, and American involvement will continue to be crucial going forward.
I've wrestled with my own positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for many years -- I think it's important to support Israel, for a number of reasons, but I also think that the only viable solution with respect to long-term peace is the withdrawal of Israel from disputed lands and the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state. Call me a moderate, but the whole region could use some moderation if there is ever to be anything approaching peace. (And let's not forget that the violence continues.)
Anyway, this will be an interesting story to follow through the summer (and beyond, of course). For now, there is hope that Sharon and Abbas are moving in the right direction. And, yes, it's time to give Condoleezza Rice some credit. After years of avoidance and irresponsible neglect, the Bush Administration is finally dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a serious and productive manner, and Rice is clearly the way. Better late than never, I suppose, but there's still much to be done, and American involvement will continue to be crucial going forward.
posted by Michael J.W. Stickings at
2:16 AM
3 Comments:
I tend to be a pessimist, perhaps,unduly, but I'm a lot less optimistic about the long-term prospects of peace. I agree that a two-state concept is, in theory, the most viable solution, but the facts on the ground make me much less persuaded that a Palestinean state will lead to peace.
Even assuming that an eventual settlement provides a viable, contiguous Palestinean state (by no means a given), the fact is that you will simply be creating another poor, weak state in a region full of poor, weak states. It's not like you will have two prosperous,stable countries--instead you will have one prosperous, stable, essentially westernized state (Israel obviously) and a Palestinean state fragmented between moderates and militants, with a weak economy. This is bound to create resentment on the part of Palestineans who already hate Israel; even after a settlement, I would expect Hamas and other militants to press for a full solution-ie, the elimination of Israel. I just see little hope that this won't occur unless Israel and the West helps Palestine develop a stronger economy. Hopefully, Palestine could develop along the lines of Turkey, but I don't have a lot of hope for that.
Moreover, a two-state solution is not going to satisfy, IMO, the anti-Israeli sentiment of the European and American left. In recent months, you are seeing calls for a binational solution--ie, a single, unified, secular state, similar to what has occurred in South Africa. Under such a scenario, Jews would obviously be a minority but, like whites in in South Africa, would likely dominate the economy. Although I am not in principle opposed to a binational state (despite the fact of losing its Jewish character), I am very skeptical, given the prevalence of anti-Jewish feeling in the region, of the willingness of Palestineans (at least the militants) to peacefully coexist with Jews.
In a two-state solution, given the fact that Israel is likely to be much stronger and much more prosperous than a Palestinean state, I would expect such calls to continue even if the two states come into being--at the very least, I expect anti-Israel sentiment to continue. This is likely to fuel the ambitions of Hamas and others.
I could certainly be wrong and I hope I am. History is certainly not a linear progression--six decades ago, who would have predicted that Japan and Germany would be democratic and that the Soviet Union would not exist.
I think the Israelis certainly need to get the hell out of the occupied territories. IMO, the way the Israelis have dealt with the Palestinean issue since the 6-Day War has been abysmal, not just in humanitarian terms, but in terms of adopting realistic policies that would further Israel's best interests. IMO, Israel would have been much better if it had sought deal with the Palestineans as an individual entity rather than choosing to work with Arab states that had little interest in a real long-term solution. But that's water under the bridge.
I hope that, once a Palestinean state is established, that Israel and the West, can help to create a Palestinean middle class that has a greater stake in building the state than it does in revanchist notions of eliminating Israel. It's going to take strong and visionary leadership on three sides-Israel, Palestine, and the US.
By
Anonymous, at 11:33 AM
I must admit that I'm generally pro-Israel (though I also support the two-state solution), and I do worry about a Palestinian state right next to Israel. Not least because Abbas may not be able to co-opt terrorist organizations like Hamas -- and those organizations could end up dominating a sovereign Palestine. This is not to let Israel off the hook. You're right, Marc, that Isreali policies have often been quite reprehensible (not to mention counter-productive). What worries me at the moment is that there's really neither stability nor authority in what could end up being a sovereign Palestine. Abbas has yet to show that he can control the disparate elements under his watch, and, no, there's nothing in the way of a stable middle class, no solid foundation for a democratic Palestine. What we often forget, I think, is that democracy is tough. Tough to set up and tough to maintain. We seem to treat is as the "natural," and hence best, regime, but based on liberal theory the natural state of humanity is one of perpetual strife and war (Hobbes's war of all against all, seconded by Locke). Democracy only takes root where there is fertile soil -- as there was, say, in 1787 in the 13 colonies. It doesn't seem to me that right now there's not much fertile soil in what would be a sovereign Palestine.
By
Michael J.W. Stickings, at 1:45 AM
I think part of the problem is that Israel is a convenient whipping boy for Palestinean (and Arab) politicians that it distracts them (or provides a way to avoid) from building a sound, prosperous state. As long as the Palestinean state is so much less prosperous than Israel (which I assume it will be), it's going to be a ligtening rod for all the Palestinean resentments. And I suspect that the politicians will be glad to engage in Israel bashing (or worse) rather than building the state.
There was an article in The New York Review of Books that suggests that Abu Mazen is trying to bring Hamas into the system by calling elections. The idea is that once it is operating within the confines of Palestinean politics, Mazen will be better able to control and channel Hamas into positive directions. There is something to be said for that. But, the converse is that Hamas could end up hijacking the Palestinean state for its own purposes.
By
Anonymous, at 9:23 AM
Post a Comment
<< Home