Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Nate Silver is no fun at all

By Richard Barry

Nate Silver wants us to know that it's really too early to say anything much about who will win the presidency in 2016. He also wants us to know that it's a 50/50 proposition at this point, and "we're not likely to learn a lot over the rest of 2015 to change that."

There’s already plenty of bad punditry regarding the chances of Hillary Clinton — who officially announced her candidacy on Sunday — to become the 45th president. You can find Democrats boasting about their “blue wall” in the Electoral College and how hard this will make it for any Republican to win. Or Republicans warning that the Democratic Party rarely wins three elections in a row.

Most of this analysis is flimsy. So is the commentary about the ups-and-downs in early swing state polls. And when you see some pundit declaring a minor misstep to be a “game changer,” find someone else to follow on Twitter.

Holy shit, Nate, we're just having some fun here. You must be a laugh riot at cocktail parties.

Oh, and by the way, I have no idea if my New York Giants will be any good this season, but I'm going to talk about it anyway. That okay with you?


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  • Well, this is the basis of Silver's entire career. The conclusion is: (1) he's right; and (2) we can still have all the fun we want. But I'm my own kind of killjoy. I say screw the polls and watch the economy!

    By Blogger Unknown, at 12:54 PM  

  • The last time the incumbent party won reelection after 8 years the economy was humming along. You could be right.

    By Blogger Richard K. Barry, at 2:32 PM  

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